SJ on cover of SI

[jbelfior]

Folks:

Head to the banks, liquidate the 401K and IRA\'s....SMARTY\' s going down in the Preakness.

DRF has learned that Sports Illustrated will put SJ on this week\'s cover. The last Derby winner to grace the cover of SI...??...no, not FUNNY CIDE....it was SUNNY\'s HALO and we all know what happened to him in Baltimore.

Didn\'t SI\'s inaugural issue have the TITANIC on it\'s cover.....LOL....


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The S.I. Jinx...I think they put a basketball team on the cover that overcame the jinx.

Beyer Wrote:

Beyer: Is he a brilliant Thoroughbred in the class of the 1977 Triple Crown winner? Or is he a flash-in-the-pan like last year\'s Derby hero? Funny Cide has proved himself to be a non-superstar after benefiting from favorable circumstances in the first two legs of the Triple Crown.

Chuckles_the _Magnificent_Clown: Funny Cide may not have wanted 12 marks, but he ran game and he runs Saturday in the Pimilco Special against some improving horses. I don\'t know if he\'ll win, but if he does will Andy issue a retraction at least in regard to the \"flash in the pan\" remark? Don\'t count on it. You do have to believe Andy knows a flash in the pan when he sees one. Andy use words more carefully and I won\'t have to spank you.

Beyer: Sloppy tracks almost always produce ambiguous results.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: I believe that sloppy/muddy tracks generally produce results that are replicated on dry surfaces. One of the largest fallacies in horseracing is that all form goes out the window on off tracks.

Beyer: it is impossible to judge whether horses ran well or poorly because of the footing or because of their own merits and demerits.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: Impossible? I don\'t think the above is true. If you look at 1989 who were the first two finishers in that mess and who completed the exacta in the Preakness on a dry surface?

Beyer: The losers\' trainers and jockeys invariably cite track conditions as an excuse. After Saturday\'s race, trainer Nick Zito said that the morning-line favorite, The Cliff\'s Edge, had lost both of his front shoes during the Derby and that his other entrant, Birdstone, had lost one. John Kimmel said that Friends Lake \"really had a hard time with the footing.\" Michael Dickinson, trainer of Tapit, declared that the track was \"a little sticky for us.\" Jockey Alex Solis said of Master David, \"He started slipping and sliding.\" Jose Valdivia Jr. said of Castledale, \"He hated the mud flying back in his face.\"

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: You failed to quote Cot Campbell and Jennifer Mulhall. A good article is always better than a thorough one.

Beyer: In many cases, such explanations are alibis for horses who would have run poorly under any conditions. Yet the way the Derby was run suggests that the race was not a true measure of many horses\' ability.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: o.k. lets assume theres some merit in that position. Which horses did the result not reflect a true measure of their ability? Come on, take a position. Even if its asinine wrong. \"Be like Bush\".

Beyer: Sloppy tracks frequently favor front-runners because the leaders kick up mud that inhibits the horses behind them. Speed horses dominated all three of the previous Derbies run on a track labeled \"sloppy,\" in 1925, 1948, and 1994.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: 1994-:24 4/5, :47 1/5, 1:11 4/5, 1:37 3/5, 2:03 3/5 - To Andy\'s credit Tabasco Cat did come out of this race and prove himself the class of the crop.

-1948-:23 2/5, :46 3/5, 1:11 2/5, 1:38, 2:05 2/5. - Coaltown set the fractions this year in a six horse field. He was picked up late by Citation. I don\'t think you can argue that the top two were not the best two and I have NO IDEA why Andy points to this year. A \"slop\" result standing alone doesn\'t tell you anything. (As a historical note Arcaro was picked to ride Citation and he noticed the easy margins Coaltown was winning by and he asked Ben Jones, Sr. if he was on the right horse?  Jones said, don\'t worry Eddie, you\'re on the right horse.) When people get to discussing who is the \"King of Trainers\" or the \"Genius\" it\'s somewhat comical. A good trainer has to know his horse and know where to spot him. Those commonly referred to as great are ham and eggers. Heres one of the best if not the best theres ever been:

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/trainers/332.html

-1925 I\'m not going back that far. 2004 has very little in common with 1925. I don\'t think the track is the same and I don\'t know how those horses faired for their careers back then.

Beyer: Bettors anticipated this scenario; after rain inundated the Churchill Downs strip about an hour before post time, a flood of late money poured onto Lion Heart, the expected front-runner, knocking his odds to 5-1 and making him second choice behind Smarty Jones. The pace scenario developed as almost everyone had anticipated.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: I would point out that the pace scenario was not impacted by the rain, some of us figured out the pace scenario and some of us didn\'t. I can recall Andy commenting about the wealth of speed.

Beyer: Jockey Mike Smith sent Lion Heart to the lead, with Stewart Elliott and Smarty Jones chasing him down the backstretch. The two colts were clear of the rest of the field on the final turn, and none of the stretch-runners in the field ever made an impact on the race.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: I think Andy forgot about Imperialism. Action this Day closed somewhat too.

Beyer: While it is arguable that Smarty Jones and Lion Heart were the best horses, most of the evidence suggests that the track conditions prevented come-from-behind horses from giving their best efforts.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: I doubt Andy would interview well at Scotland Yard.

Beyer: Smarty Jones had won the Arkansas Derby by 1 1/2 lengths over the late-running Borrego; Saturday he beat the same rival by 15.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: Andy has \"forgotten\" (probably doesn\'t know since \"path\" and weight are not relevant to his figures) Borrego\'s Dream Ark Trip and the Five pounds. On that alone Smarty figured to pick up an additional 5 lengths.

Beyer: Lion Heart had been caught by The Cliff\'s Edge in the stretch run of the Blue Grass Stakes; Saturday he beat that rival by nearly 10 lengths.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: Lion was back in front of TCE a couple jumps past the wire. Distance separates competitors from the good ones.

Beyer: The slow time of the Derby, 2:04.06 for 1 1/4 miles, translated into a Beyer Speed Figure of 107. That is exactly what Smarty Jones earned in Arkansas. Of the 17 horses behind him, not one reproduced his best form.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: I think Andy\'s point is that everyone else ran slow. I wouldn\'t count on Andy to figure this race properly if he had a thousand cracks at it. T-Graph keep it secret make the peasants pay for the best.

Beyer: Nevertheless, it would be \"unfair to suggest\" that the outcome of the Derby was an utter fluke.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: (It would be an error)  

Beyer: Lion Heart set an honest pace, running the first half-mile in 46.73 seconds over the off going; he and Smarty Jones didn\'t \"steal\" the race by setting slow fractions, they outran their opposition.

Chuckles_the_Magnificent_Clown: Finally some words with acumen

http://www.drf.com/drfNewsArticle.do?NID=55236&subs=0&arc=0



Post Edited (05-04-04 16:41)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

In the article Andy Beyer wrote contained above in this thread, he made a comparison to races eons ago won up front on \"off tracks\" and how the results indicated those sloppy/muddy Churchill Downs off tracks skewed the results which would have otherwise occurred on \"fast tracks\".

I totally disagreed with his 1948 comparison and gave him credit for the 1994 race where Tabasco Cat came out of the race and demonstrated to me any rate he was the class of the crop. (Concern might argue with that.) I would point out that Go For Gin was close to T-Cat in the next two Triple Crown races, so his Derby win wasn\'t a fluke.

Initially, I didn\'t want to look at 1925. I didn\'t want to take the time, but I realized if I\'m not gonna be like Andy, I should dig a little deeper and I usually do, so I did. The horses listed in the below spreadsheet are listed in finishing order. Draw you\'re own conclusions, but I believe the top two finishers were very good. They had great win ratios and great money ratios for the era. Granted the winner pocketed 53K for this one race which indicates the value of the average race back then. The  horse that I see that you might be able to make a case for having been impacted by an off track is the fourth place horse which won the most money in a much longer race career. He also won by far the most Stakes, but it appears the winner was a blueblood and pointed for this and a career at stud. So how far out of form did this race fall?

http://www.kentuckyderby.com/2003/derby_history/derby_charts/years/1925.html

Dont get me wrong I know this a simplistic review. But its not as simplistic as saying: \"Wet track races go to those up front\".

http://www.angelfire.com/falcon/djdalton/1925_Stats.xls