CD May 1: The Kentucky Derby

[Michael D.]

limehouse: not a bad post for this quick horse. should be able to outrun some of the stalker/closer types and get a decent trip. 10f won\'t be his best distance, but based trip, trainer, and ok # power, i will use this guy underneath in the exotics.

song of the sword: tough spot for untested connections. if arroyo (a decent jock), can work out a decent trip, this one is fast enough to be close, but to much of a risk for my money. no.

lion heart: i was not convinced that this horse could get a real strong 10f before the blue grass, and now i am just plain confused. i know the kee strip did not favor speed that day, but i still am not convinced. i will take my risk elsewhere at higher odds. no.

friends lake: in my opinion, the best horse in the race. i am very concerned about the trip however. the horse looks so much like Ats, that i keep picturing a late close for 4th. still, i think the horse may run in the \"0\" range (2-3 taking into account the trip) which could make him competitive.a use underneath in exotics.

minister eric: not for me.

master david: looks a touch slow.

imperialism: looks like a decent derby pattern to me. ran fast as a 2 yr old, then did well stretching out as a 3 yr old. could have run a bit faster last if not pulled up, so i can excuse the small backwards looking pattern this year. gets the perfect post, and a rider who has won this race. my key.

the cliff\'s edge: good luck TGJB, i know you have this one at great odds. obvious contender. nice two yr old pattern. the only question mark for me is the amount of stress in last race. i am looking for a bounce here, but not sure how much. at lowish odds, i will try to beat on my win tickets, but i will have this one in the top four spots in the exotics.

borrego: contender, but i like a few other stalker/closer types just a bit more. a reluctant toss for me.

bird: not for me.

read the footnotes: fast enough to win, and i see good efforts from this guy in the future. i won\'t bet him going 10f today however.

smarty: looking for a back up here, as everyone is. tough task for untested jock. top two or three horses in race, but at lowish odds, i will use mostly underneath in exotics.

castledale: nice horse, fast enough to win. i think imperialism will get the better trip from the 10 hole, so i am siding with that one over castledale. could run a \"1\" or \"2\", and still not hit the board. a very reluctant toss.

pollard\'s vision: hard to toss anything from the jr/pletcher team, but i will try to beat this guy at 10f.

tapit: will most likely run wide. only four races, and an untested jock (although a good one). i think this horse will have to be a superstar to win this. he may be, but at lowish odds, too much risk. not for me.

pro prado: mud freak, bred up and down to love the stuff. not at 10f, and not from post 19. not for me.

quinton: trainer busted last year for drug violation, anything he puts on the track is eligible to explode. not for me though.


i will key imperialism. i like the pattern, and i like the jock from post 10. TCE is the fastest, but at lowish odds, not the key. still, a use in the top spots. i will use limehouse, FL, and smarty underneath in the exotics (maybe FL on top sml, just because he is my favorite horse).

[MO]

I keep looking at Lion Heart\'s competition, and they all drew from post 11 outward. At the odds, and TG figures, Pro Prado looks like my saver at 65-1.



Post Edited (05-01-04 10:55)

[Michael D.]

great story ...... i will just sit back and watch the preakness, hope smarty wins. lion out, and i nail the tri. i went with imperialism. he got caught in a bit of traffic and ran well, but smarty was the best.