T-Graph Derby Analysis

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I got up early to read the T-Graph Red Board Room rundown on the Derby Entries and I was not disappointed.  

Jerry, the logic you attack figures with is compelling. You are able to break them down and sort them so easily.  I didn't make as large a distinction between negative numbers and a 1.5, if I had maybe I wouldn't have spread so much and wasted bets...lol  Of course, I was handicapping factoring an off track and I wasn't about to let horses with a 1.5 under their belt pair up and leave me beaten in a topsy turvy year.

Reading you're analysis, from my perspective it was essentially flawless. The only thing to perhaps take issue with is your evaluation of Song of the Sword, though his finishing position supports your opinion.  His Illinois Derby scored just as fast as Pollard's Vision (give or take) and he had some trouble.  Thereafter in the Lexington, he was bumped off stride out of the gate, rushed up to find his path impeded and after waiting he moved again along the rail to put himself into contention only to have to wait for a chance to run again. In the stretch he was in tight quarters but when he put his head in front he appeared to regain his momentum late. It almost looked as if he was shy in tight along that rail. Granted, I didn't see Tapit bearing in...lol.  (Anyone reading this and wishing to voice an opinion refer to the Lexington replay at "Kentuckyderby.com")  In the Lexington, Song was even with Quinton a sixteenth past the wire. It doesn't look like Song ran his race in the Derby, though that's arguably true of several. Long story short, Song's 4 appeared to me to be significantly closer to Quinton's 1 putting him in the hunt for exotics placing at big odds. I know Quinton was wide in the Lexington. Opinions make for horseracing.

I bet on The Cliff's Edge, though I've questioned his 10 mark ability, (Lion Heart came back at him post Bluegrass wire), but in his defense on "slog day" he lost both his front shoes. Birdstone also lost a shoe. On that track lost shoes appear significant.

If you add 5 points to the data base how will we be able to compare horses of different generations?  That's rhetorical, you're numbers this year answer that question.  

I have one other question. If a three year old runs a negative 3.2, in apparent hand, can you really ask him to pair or top it in his penultimate race?  It's definitely a new era for speed figures

Anyway you're analysis was a pleasure to read. I know it was you.

Good Work

[TGJB]

If we add 5 points, it will be to everything in the electronic data base, which means 92 on.

I have been told that Dickinson said that they found out what caused Tapit to bear in-- he had a bad tooth, and they pulled it after the Wood. Who knows.

I LOVE that NBC got Michael sticking his finger in the track. The guy is one of a kind. I had a lot of disagreements with him (and he has since made some changes, like being far more willing to ship to run in a stake, not that he changed because of me), but I will say this-- no one can ever accuse him of mailing it in.