Violette on UPSTART: "He needed the Haskell..."

JohnTChance · August 27, 2015, 01:49:24 PM

Rick Violette on UPSTART: \"He needed the Haskell, there\'s no question. I got him ready, but I didn\'t pound on him to get him ready. He needed a race and he got one in a Grade 1. He\'ll move up off the Haskell, looking at the numbers and a little bit of common sense."

In evaluating Upstart's chances, that comment caught my eye. "Looking at the numbers?" But was Jerry, via Elliot Walden, in the trainer's other ear, influencing that bit of trainer-speak? I wish that comment was coming from the "horseman's\" side of the trainer, and not the handicapping side. Actually, I wish that comment was coming from UPSTART's exercise rider - someone who\'s intimately felt the horse's stride under him firsthand every morning of his comeback.

[P.S. - The thing that bothered me about Jerry\'s online seminar is where he used the words: \"something wrong.\" Hope that\'s not the case.]

TGJB · August 27, 2015, 01:59:46 PM

Let\'s nip that one in the bud. Every single word I\'ve heard re Upstart physically has been positive. My comment was a pattern read.

I didn\'t want to go into great length in a seminar where I had to cover a lot of horses, but there are 4 non-tops on Upstart\'s sheet. Three of them came the times he shipped to run. The other came following an enormous effort right off a layoff, the rest of the time he walked over there he ran tops.

Hence my comment that not getting back to his top now would be a bad sign.

Al Caught Up · August 27, 2015, 06:20:57 PM

by \'now\', do you mean in the Haskell? Sorry, just trying to parse the last sentence. I think you\'re indirectly quoting what you wrote in the seminar, which I didn\'t read/hear, but I don\'t want to misunderstand the context re: Travers and the direction the horse might be going. Thanks!

TGJB · August 27, 2015, 06:51:35 PM

He was shipping for the Haskell so I ant have meant that. Now means this time.

Al Caught Up · August 27, 2015, 07:44:03 PM

gracias

miff · August 28, 2015, 05:23:19 AM

Can\'t imagine why Upstart runs in the 10f Travers @like 15/20-1 vs 4 tough foes where he\'s probably favored in the 9f PA Derby for a $600k winners share.

No brainer from a management standpoint.

SoCalMan2 · August 28, 2015, 07:34:27 AM

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Can\'t imagine why Upstart runs in the 10f Travers
> @like 15/20-1 vs 4 tough foes where he\'s probably
> favored in the 9f PA Derby for a $600k winners
> share.
>
> No brainer from a management standpoint.

A win over American Pharoah in the Travers could probably boost stallion value more than a win in the PA Derby. Of course, you gotta win for that to apply. However, when people buy horses like this, they are not doing it to pick up $600k in off the path races -- they are tending to look at the whole enchilada ahead of any side cash concerns.

miff · August 28, 2015, 07:49:59 AM

Doubt $600k is not meaningful to Winstar.A 5-8% prop tomorrow vs a 40-50% prop in the Pa Derby.Has plenty of time/races to become a stallion prospect.

Mike Welsch said Upstart worked better than any contender except AP, this am.

MonmouthGuy · August 28, 2015, 07:56:22 AM

What is place $$ in Travers with increased purse?

alydar61 · August 28, 2015, 08:00:40 AM

Should be $345k+

miff · August 28, 2015, 08:29:29 AM

Assuming place isn\'t easy either,Texas Red,Frosted, even Keen Ice tough horses

TGJB · August 28, 2015, 08:46:59 AM

A) Your premise is wrong, B) even if it was right earlier points I made in this string (and others) would be factors to consider.

SoCalMan2 · August 28, 2015, 10:00:39 AM

TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A) Your premise is wrong, B) even if it was right
> earlier points I made in this string (and others)
> would be factors to consider.

Whose premise?

EDIT -- I meant Which premise, not whose premise.....I know whose you are speaking about.

TGJB · August 28, 2015, 10:42:30 AM

There\'s 3 weeks between the Travers and Pa Derby. Upstart (and others) might go in both.

CIRCLEOFROSES · August 28, 2015, 05:32:13 PM

IMHO,

I really doubt that Upstart will break through to a new top for the rest of his career.He just seems to follow a pattern of 2 year olds running huge figs.In his Case a 0.When a horse like Barbaro ran a 2 year old top at the 5 range 10 years ago.That was consider a big Fig.Now Upstart Daredevil and others running a 0.at age 2.I just feel from learning how horses have developed over the last 25 years from the age of 2 to 3.Huge 2 year old figs have a lasting effect on such horse and shorten there racing careers.