Critical Analysis

[bellsbendboy]

Thought that I had gone far enough with tenets but decided to do some analysis and while the sample is too small, I did uncover an interesting tendency.

I dumped the small barn and turf rail tenets mostly because of the time required to do accurate research and used only the first blinkers, drawing inside.  Again a tenet is between opinion and fact though they are much closer to the latter. By definition, (Websters), a belief, principle or doctrine generally believed to be true.

99% of my plays are in California and it was easiest for me to use the current Delmar meeting as a data base.  My small study used only the first 18 days of the meet and I decided to chuck anything European, eliminate firsters equipped with blinkers and used only the past performances on the page.

Two noticeable disclaimers; 1) if a horse used blinkers then ran twelve races without them... then added them, they were counted as first time blinkers, and 2) if a horse scratched then was reentered it was regrettably counted twice.

I used all horses in posts 1,2 and 3 getting first hood,  post four if there was ten or more entrants and post five if twelve or more.

In all 171 horses were evaluated (first blinkers)  and a remarkable at least to me, was there were 16 winners or roughly nine percent!  It was more than double the percentage I would have expected.

Of the sixteen; Ellis had a pair of short priced winners, Claiborne had a homer ($4.60), Avila claimed one off Stein, and four dropped precipitously.  What was eye opening 8 were coming off significant layoffs with the average a bit over 120 days! Learn something everyday!!

I would not have posted my tenets if I did not strongly feel they were sound handicapping angles and apologize my study did not provide the results I expected. On the other hand the sample was small and the Delmar meet due to the compression and simplicity of the condition book is the most class conscious in the world.

bbb

[TGJB]

The issue is not whether the opinions were correct, it\'s that they were offered as facts without backup.

The key word on the tenet sentence is \"generally\" believed to be true. If 1,2 and 3 were generally believed to be true you wouldn\'t have much of an edge even if they proved out.

What you have are experiential beliefs that certain things are true. We all do, including me, and it\'s why I trust my judgment more than the Thoro-Pattern stats. The issue isn\'t the belief, it\'s how it\'s presented.