Opening Day

[FrankD.]

Opening day at the Spa is an unofficial holiday for wise guys, wanna be\'s and per the old neighborhood loan sharks the 2nd busiest week of the year next to Christmas.

A self imposed gag order goes into effect for the next 6 weeks pertaining to NYRA and Klueless bashing; only handicapping with a splash of tough beat stories will get by the editor.

In the age of getting PP\'s and #\'s 3 days in advance of the opening card one can suffer from paralysis by over analysis for sure. I\'ve never seen so many 20/1 shots look soooooo good!

The first 6 races of both the Friday and Saturday cards hold little interest here.
There are some nice NYB maidens making there debut tomorrow, the Schuylerville  contains all the randomness that a 2 yr old filly stake should this time of year. While after 3 days I\'ve eliminated 2 of the 12 entered in the Lake George.

Race 1: Sea Raven has a #\'s edge on the rest, of the next 5 who are all pretty tight TG wise Native Hero & Fox Rules will be good prices for an exacta play.

Race 4: The Schuylerville
With 4 of the 8 running the same number in their debut or last race, Off The Tracks will be the best price of the 4 and has a 1/2 brother who put up some nice sprint numbers at 2 and 3.

Race 7: The Pick 4
The Tea Cups won\'t be anything near her morning line price, Chrysolite and Lahinch Classics will be, Asperites is a must use as well. I\'ll press with Tea Cups and Chrysolite who has a breakout in her at a nice price.

Race 8: Juba was supposed to be a good one, obvious physcial issues have hindered his development. He was flattered by his Maiden race against Constitution at Gulf last winter, broke through in April this year at Aqueduct and was thrown right into the frying pan after that against Tonalist in the Westchester.
He is a single in here for me with a cold triple over the 3 and 4.

Race 9: The Lake George
I will have to hit the ALL button here for a small ticket, it\'s that tight and my hope is the shortest price and fastest of the 3 Chad Browns the 12 with JJ up will lose enough ground from out there and get bet to make the sequence a bit juicer.
I\'ll use 5 on my main ticket, 1,2,3,9,10 and hope the American Oaks turns out to be a key race or the 2 Motion horses run very well at big prices. the 2 has a very forward move in her and the 3 gets enough weight from faster horses to make her interesting to me.

Race10: Big Blue Talent has run 6 races so much faster than the rest in the main body of the race he could romp here. He is also the dreaded Saratoga OUCHIE with back numbers, if he is 80% of himself he romps.  Kowboy Boots gets a saver play in case Big Blue doesn\'t make it all the way around. the 15 and 16 can be used should they draw in, especially the 16, I\'m anti Jacobson until he puts up some tops, he was cold at Belmont and seems to start off very slowly here every year.

4 X 1 X 12 X 2 = $96 for a buck

4 X 1 X  5 X 2 = $40 for a buck X a few more

2 X 1 X 12 X 1 = $24 for a buck

2 X 1 X  5 X 1 = $10 for a buck X quite a few more

Good luck to everyone and I look forward to the yearly visits from so many of you T-generates I get to see every year.

Frank D.

[Tavasco]

Thank you Frank D for getting things rolling!

Since I have a tendency to overexcite, I will attempt to pace myself, I\'m looking for one particular opening day opportunity / bet. This year I thought I would use the Missouri Breaks angle. My label developed from reading Fairmounts post concerning restaurants @ the SPA. All the great food tips made me hungry and reminded that his boy Hernandez \"the Fairmount Flash\"  was riding for Ward this season.

In fact, he\'s up on 3 or 4 mounts Fri. One, a live one is an AE #16. I have not looked at any performance #\'s rather going with the simpleton approach of finding a competitor that will be overlooked by the tourists for really important concerns like I don\'t know who that jockey is?

As much as I am tempted by the Ward / Hernandez AE Cloverdale Nine in the 10th race, the #15 AE is a Jacobson and while that one faded late in its last, very un Jacobson like, he was coming back from a long layoff. Since the race is later than the Schuylerville and he may not get in, El Paso.

When I noticed RR had an entry in this 2 yo filly stake, I immediately thought WTF. Why would he drag Off The Track all the way from So. Fla to the cool fresh air of Upstate NY? The idea of this horse haunted me, the allure was as strong as the girl down the street and around the corner when I was 15 constant, a little scary and irresistible , Well almost but the  race entrant beckons subconsciously.

To compound the decision. I swore I was gonna base my play on principles of contrary. Initially I thought I would put Banree behind the high pct Pletcher\'s filly. The thought being she is probably so good that m/l 2/1 is an overlay.

Lastly, I had recently read in some context other than handicapping, that man\'s best decisions are those that are well considered and more time is better than less. Not to over analyze but to age and enjoy like a fine Bordeaux.

Frank\'s post has helped me to settle on an EBX Off The Track (fine m/l price) and Banree (Troubled Tremont and myopia may help the m/l price appreciate). I have um 10 hrs now to decide on an amount. c/b $100/1 payoff.

[drbillym]

Tavasco, both Matt Bernier and Bruno DeJulio mentioned they like Off the Track.  Not a good sign.

[Tavasco]

Drbillym, Thank you, Thank you, for ringing in

Superstitious as I am, I will now revert to my fallback prejudice that FL horses rarely ship to SAR and win. Which provides the answer to my 2nd question i.e. how much? I will scale back to a token $1 ebx so I don\'t have to kick myself if... and that quotas me out.

Good Luck

[billk5300s]

Good Luck Frank D!!!

I like Reversiontothemean in the 5th.  20-1 ML looks as good as any.
I played 4/5610 tris/supers/exactas.

Good Luck to all!!!!

[trackjohn]

Great call...hope you crushed it!

[Wrongly]

Nice!  $61 EX, hope you killed it.

[P-Dub]

Nice call Frank.

Just got home from the gym, let the dogs out, turned on TV and they were loading. Couldn\'t get down.  Hope you hammered it.

[jerry]

Good pick. Tough beat. He looked home free mid stretch. I keyed him 1st, 2nd and 3rd in tris with all. Fortunate for me was the bomb on top.