Kentucky Oaks

[Silver Charm]

I don't know if we are allowed to talk about this since it doesn't have anything to do with the Triple Crown but it is an important race.

Madcap Escapade will be a very short priced favorite particularly with Bailey jumping off Victory USA to go back to her. However some of the numbers others have put them very close to her and you have to think that some of these jocks like Johnny V on Ashado will go after her early enough that she will be tested. Madcap has been working very well at CD and will be tough to beat.

A stalker who has a nice looking line and comes in fresh is Silent Sighs. She needs to move forward some more, but could be a good price 9/2 or thereabouts.

[jbelfior]

Nafzger\'s been chirping about LAST SONG. She has the right style if it heats up early.


Good Luck,
joe B.

[HP]

I haven\'t seen the pps so I can\'t comment on the pace scenario, but the sheet for HOUSE OF FORTUNE looks about right to me.

Last Song would probably be my second choice. I like AP Adventure and Hollywood Story a little bit too. HP

[big ant]

I have been told that horses comming out of the ME ,Ashado traditionally do not fare well, does anyone have an opinion on this.All of my chums seem to think the Cali shippers are the way to go;however , i still have to like ME based on what my pal in Fla said about the giant killer\'s opinion of her.

[Mall]

Not sure what to make of this, but our thinking on the races & otherwise so far has been pretty much along the same lines. The only difference so far is that I thought they broke away from Randy Romero for an update on the Michael Jackson saga. Presumably, you\'d agree that when it came to Rosier they showed a little too much a little too often. A respected cohort & I are of the view that the Oaks looks like it might be a better betting race, & that the Oaks/Derby double might be the way to go. At the very least, you can avoid putting more money into the big race if you\'re alive after Fri.

[Silver Charm]

I am already on record as having a "tentative liking" for Silent Sighs but Joe B. what you said about Last Song is very interesting, because things could a little hot up front early. And even if they don't people will surely go after ME a little sooner than normal (3/8th pole) because they will not want to wait to late. All of this falling into place opens the door for that last ditch closer nailing ME after she has used up all her energy putting away the rest of them.

However. the interesting candidate I'm looking at is Victory USA. The reason I say interesting is that the rider switch resulted in Pat Day being aboard which may be tipping the connections hand with their tactics as "Patient Pat" is clearly the guy to wait and wait and wait some more. She lost some Grade I's last year because of premature moves, maybe they try something different here. Don't know what she beat last out and the Beyer was slow but she drew-off big-time.

Put Victory USA and Silent Sighs on the first half of my Oaks/Derby Double ticket.

Also let me comment on that their have been a ton of what I call HEADFAKE POSTS put up here in the last two weeks. Well this is no headfake, Smarty Jones will be nowhere to be found on ANY OF MY TICKETS Derby Day. I will not be playing Supers, the investment is more than I can handle by myself, unless I team up. I'm going on record now. Please hold the masses back as they rush to the windows to change their tickets.

LOL

[big ant]

I am not joking either when i say i positively will not use him either.Good luck to all

[big ant]

When I first started getting into sheets figures, the guy who had introduced me to it told me that one of the, if not the best line a horse could come off of was an 0-3-2 line.ME\'s line is very close to being just that.The last time i saw that particular line was Swartz\'s Critical Eye in his farewell race ,which he won for fun,any comments from you sharpies out there

[miff]

wow, what bravado, tossing the fastest horse,by far. I\'ll bet you are a real big bettor with much greater knowledge and insight than most of us mortals.

[pgsheets]

Unless there is an announcement that Smarty Jones is both 1st time Lasix and 1st time passenger van, he\'s off all of mine as well.

[big ant]

So you have to be a real big bettor to be a real man eh, I submit to you that unless you know stable/jockey intent you have to  either, 1.spread like a hooker (which i refuse to do)or 2. bet small.How many times have you had the best horse and lost ? How many times do you see riders choke horses back for no particular reason? how many times have you found good value just to have the horse slammed at the last minute, killing your price? So if you are a big bettor and sucessful you must have good connections with good info,or you are a genius who spreads.God bless you miff, you are my hero,perhaps i could get your autograph.

[pres711]

Ashado/house of fortune/silent sighs; all look good to me. tossing ME/HB.

[miff]

Big Ant,
I\'m no one to give any autographs.You missed my point.It\'s very easy to have a strong opinion against an obvious contender when there is little at risk.When you are betting very serious money, you still have to stick to your guns(as you seem to be re SJ) but with a little more respect for a horse that has accomplished more than most and is fast.In any event, I wish all players the best of luck in a game which I have studied for 35 years and found to be extraordinarily difficult.

[big ant]

I\'d like to apologize for the wisecracks, I get flaky at the end of a long day. I guess we would have to define what serious money is first. I am a as of late a guy who will make $20-50 win bets although i have bet horses to win with $200-300 if i knew something not in the sheets or the form.exotics i\'ll make part wheels anywhere from $3-to $30 and reverse for slightlty less. on tri bets i will key from $1-$10 and will use my top choice no further down that 2nd place.What i really like to do is find 2 keys box those two on top and for second then use others under ,then split those with the others in between. I have caught hundreds of triples using this approach.I am being totally honest and i know i will be criticized by the real heavy hitters, but that is okay,i have been criticized for my betting approach before, only to watch those critics on line for the shylocks.I do not regard myself as a great sheet reader, I know plenty of guys who are alot better than I. I have been around racetracks and gambling parlors in the New York area since the mid seventies, I caught the bus as a kid, and I used to cut my last class to get the A train to the Big A. I tend to bet less these days because of lack of value.It seems everyone is reading sheets and as a result there less value than before.One of the few days of the year when a guy can get a decent price is on Derby day, when thousands of \"shems\" are lined up to bet hunches and show off their scary handicapping prowess. Anyway back to this SJ thing, he is tremendously fast, and i really liked the way that Elliot got him to the front with relative ease in the Ark. Derby, a huge plus such tactical speed;however that tactical speed coupled with an inexperienced rider could get him very wide or cooked into the first turn. That huge # to me is the real problem, that and the connections path to CD. he ran huge in both races in Philly, so they take him to the Aqueduct inner,what were they thinking? did they not know wht they had already?this horse could have been any kind. I do not like that he ran his eyeballs out and that he regressed exactly 2 points,I dislike the fast work, i feel he will be bet and i cannot use him.I respect everyone\'s handicapping approach, it is like religion to me ,use what ever works best for you. I respect your approach and i wish you luck.It is quite possible that SJ runs huge and wins , it is possible that he runs big and loses, and it is possible that he totally tanks. It is like throwing a pass in football 3 things can happen and two of them are bad.

[RICH]

Correct, the neg 3 cooked his goose, if you read the sheets, its an automatic toss.