AP,OMG

[TGJB]

His Wood number is exactly as accurate as Frosted\'s. That doesn\'t mean T will see it again soon, if ever.

[miff]

Based on how you did it, agree, dont agree it was neg -2

[ringato3]

Mike,

Your view on \"Fraud-sted\" as you call him, is noted.  

I don\'t like him as much as Materiality, but have you considered that you might be a bit biased because you bet on him twice in Florida and lost?

He ran well last year, solid foundation and VERY GOOD Remsen, against a strong inside rail and speed bias.  

He is a different animal than Tencendur, not really a fair comparison.

I don\'t think he can beat AP if AP runs his \"A\" race, but then again not sure any of these can, but Frosted and MAteriality if they run their \"A\", can beat AP at his \"B\" and there are reasons to believe AP will only run his \"B\".  (distance/4th race in 8 weeks).

My problem is I wish I was getting better reports about how Materiality was doing.  He was training and looking like King Kong down in Florida earlier this year.

Not so much now.

If he doesn\'t bring his A game, he can\'t win.

Rob

[miff]

Pletcher's Hopes of Spoiling Triple Crown Bid Lie on Rest and Home Turf
By TOM PEDULLA

Todd Pletcher has not saddled a horse in the Preakness, the middle leg of the Triple Crown, for the last four years.

Materiality skipped the Preakness, which has been a good pattern for Belmont winners in recent years.American Pharoah and the Other ContendersJUNE 1, 2015

If the trainer Todd Pletcher is to deny American Pharoah the Triple Crown in the Belmont Stakes on Saturday, he hopes his willingness to skip the Preakness Stakes three weeks earlier will provide the edge he needs.

Pletcher will be aiming for his third Belmont victory to go with recent strong finishes that fit his pattern of passing over the Preakness and returning to his home base, Belmont Park, almost immediately after the Kentucky Derby. He has not saddled a horse in the Preakness, the middle leg of the Triple Crown, for the last four years.

"Everyone knows that the Triple Crown trail can have some setbacks," said Pletcher, the winner of seven Eclipse Awards as the leading trainer in North America. "Even though our Derby record isn't very good, we've had a very good record with these horses leading up to it and, in many cases, after it. And I think part of that is we rest them after the Derby."

Pletcher's Derby record fell to 1 for 43 when his three starters this year — Materiality (sixth), Itsaknockout (ninth) and Carpe Diem (10th) — added to years of disappointment that are somewhat offset by his success in the Belmont. Pletcher still points to the 2007 Belmont victory by Rags to Riches as his signature triumph; she was the third filly to win the contest and the first since Tanya in 1905.


Materiality, unraced at 2, will be making only his fifth start. Credit Julie Jacobson/Associated Press
Pletcher's horses were major players in the Belmont in three of the last four years. He reached the winner's circle with Palace Malice in 2013. Stay Thirsty's determined rally missed by three-quarters of a length against Ruler on Ice in 2011. Commissioner led every stride but the last in losing by a head to Tonalist last year. Pletcher described that as the most frustrating of his four second-place showings there.

There have been 11 Triple Crown winners since Sir Barton became the first to sweep the Derby, the Preakness and the Belmont in 1919. No horse has accomplished the feat since Affirmed in 1978. Pletcher views the bulk of Triple Crown history as "a different era." He noted that those horses ran more often and appeared better equipped to withstand three races in five weeks.

While American Pharoah overcame sloppy conditions to win the $1.5 million Preakness two weeks after he was all-out for a one-length victory in the Derby, Pletcher spent the last five weeks pointing Materiality and Carpe Diem, the Breeders' Cup Juvenile runner-up who was withdrawn from the Belmont field on Monday, toward the third leg of the Triple Crown. Madefromlucky, who showed promise in winning the Peter Pan Stakes on May 9, is scheduled to be his second starter.


American Pharoah did most of his training at Churchill Downs for the Preakness and the Belmont. He will not have a major workout at Belmont Park and was not due to arrive there until Tuesday, leaving him relatively little time to acclimate to the sprawling track and a surface that can be sandy and deep.

Pletcher is counting on home-course advantage. "Anytime you are at home, it is an edge," he said. "The horses are settled in here; they train over the mile-and-a-half oval every day. Anytime you can walk out of your stall into the paddock" to be saddled for the race, "it's not a disadvantage in any sense."

Although American Pharoah wore down Firing Line in a stretch duel in the Derby and romped as he relished a track turned sloppy by a prerace downpour in the mile-and-three-sixteenths Preakness, it does not appear on paper that the son of the 2009 Derby runner-up Pioneerof the Nile is bred to last a mile and a half. Then again, few horses are.



Materiality, unraced at 2, will be making only his fifth start and looks to be Pletcher's better shot. He did well to be sixth in the Derby because he hesitated at the start for Javier Castellano, his jockey, and took a fair amount of dirt in his face as he dropped far back in a crowded field of 18.

"It was a rough trip, but I'll tell you what, that horse learned a lot. He figured it out really quick," Castellano said. "Turning for home, he passed horses, he split horses and he finished really, really strong. I think he could fit perfect for the Belmont."

Pletcher said Materiality possessed so much energy after the Derby that he seriously considered him for the Preakness. Pletcher is winless with seven starters in that race, including the Derby champion Super Saver in 2010.

"At the end of the day, I felt like if I was wrong and he didn't win the Preakness, it would compromise our chances in the Belmont," he said of Materiality.

As painstaking as Pletcher is in gearing up for another Belmont, his father, Jake, a former trainer, believes the outcome may depend on an element out of everyone's control. Jake noted that American Pharoah produced runaway victories in the mud in the Arkansas Derby and the Preakness.

"It makes Pharoah a cinch if it rains," the elder Pletcher said.

[miff]

Rob,

Learned the hard way to view a horse thru unbiased eyes. In Florida, Frosted was rather common, nothing to do with losing on him.Wrongly, I thought he was close in ability to Upstart and would get better,Upstart embarrassed him both times they met.Was influenced somewhat by people close to KPM who loved him in Jan and his 2yr old Remsen impressed me.

Everyone sees horses  differently and Frosted has not impressed me too much, a nice horse.Inconceivable to me that he could break from post 17 and win the derby, or send in the Preakness and do what AP did.Dont have them that close in ability and accomplishment wise there is no comparison.At 6-1ish, no bargain imo, not an awful play if you feel AP over the top but he\'s no Materiality either. Consider, by association, that Mat put away Upstart who Frosted couldn\'t even threaten.Having said all that, he\'s the 3rd most likely winner.

Re Materiality, posted an article of interest.On ability, the only horse that may outrun AP, both on their A game.Mat not a training machine, will not let that influence me, he\'s a tough fighter when challanged, seen it in his wins.


Mike

[ringato3]

Mike,

Good points.  Perhaps you will share the secret on how to view horses through \"unbiased eyes\".  I can be bitter and angry when a horse lets me down and have trouble getting over it...

Also agree on Materiality vs Frosted.  Loved Materiality all spring and was disappointed when he drew inside Derby day and also when many on this board, specifically Jim Covello, posted about how multiple clockers had him working much worse than he was in Florida.  That along with Pletcher\'s reputation with having MANY of his Derby runners \"over the top\" got me to drop him from an \"A\" to a \"B\" and made Firing Line my \"A\" for the Derby.  Also no good, but I got a run for my money there.

Frosted easily 3rd most likely winner, just by default.  I think there is some chance he \"trips out\" though.  I can\'t get away from thinking Pletcher will have Johnny V. send Materiality and the two best horses, Materiality and AP hook up and somebody, likely Frosted, benefits from the better horses hooking up earlier.

The further problem is that I think you are off with your 6-1ish for Frosted.  Will be VERY surprised if Frosted isn\'t 2nd choice, around 7-2 or 4-1.

[miff]

Are there any offshore odds out there? If you read the press and even National TV, there is only 1 horse running in the race, AP..have him like 1-2 with the second choice like 5 or 6-1

[ringato3]

Yes.

AP 4-5
Frosted 4-1
Materiality 6-1

Double digits the rest.

Do think AP goes off lower though now, especially with the field down to 8 horses