An early look at the Belmont pace

[toppled]

Either Carpe Diem or Materiality will go for the lead, American Pharoh sits 2nd between those two.  The other possibility is that War Story goes, as promised.  In any scenario, WS will be treated like a bug who is a minor annoyance and will have no affect on how the 3 other pace horses run their races, unless he stops cold in front of one of them on the turn. One of the 3 pace horses (minus WS) will go on to take command and pull away. If he\'s been able to withstand the grind & passes the eye & weight tests it will be AP and we\'ll have out 1st Triple Crown winner in 37 years.  If he\'s been worn down & looks bad coming onto the track, one of the Pletchers will win. Either way the off the pace bettors will be whining about the pace again like they did after the Derby.  The 4th & 5th pace horses (after not taking anything up front WS is doing seriously), Mubtaahij & Frosted have the best chances to hit the board in minor spots. Nobody at the back of the pack, Tale of Verve, Keen Ice, Frammento, or Conquest Curlinate should ever have much impact.  One could hit the super as the 4th horse if the others tire late.  The Peter Pan winner is outclassed & won\'t be anywhere near the winner at the finish.

[FrankD.]

War Story will try to tap into his speed for Belmont Stakes
By David Grening
ELMONT, N.Y. – If Ron Paolucci has his way, American Pharoah won't be loose on the lead in the June 6 Belmont Stakes like he was in last Saturday's Preakness Stakes, where American Pharoah splish-splashed his way to a seven-length victory in the Pimlico slop.

[toppled]

I confused War Story with Conquest Curlinate.  I\'ll edit my post, thanks Frank.

[joekay]

Peter Pan horses finished 1,2 last year and the 2 almost won.  Speed was king last year, and when Commissioner came out for his warmup and I saw the jock rev him up, I tried desperately to get from my seat to make the bet --- no luck  -- too late with that crowd.

[joemama]

I got clued into Commissioner last year thanks to a comment on one of the contributors to this board (unnamed, initials are J.C.) who said what if Commissioner is taken to the lead.  Further research convinced me to give it a shot. I also remember a post race comment from someone who pointed out the prerace   loosening up. Of course one has to be at the track to see this. I hope those that brave the hassle of going to Belmont are able to reap the rewards of being able to witness those pre race tip offs. And that those are rewarded for every penny they put out to do it.

[ringato3]

I don\'t like him to win, but the Peter Pan winner is going to run a good race and be in the vertical wagers.   He is a bit of a grinding slug, but he is getting better at the right time, figures to be passing tired horses late and the Peter Pan entrants have done well recently I the belmont.   Not to mention that this seems to the only triple crown race pletcher can get horses to run well in.

As for the pace scenario u laid out, it certainly sounds plausible.   The thing is, in the belmont, anybody can make the lead, if sent hard enough, because the pace is slower.   As opposed to the preakness, I would be surprised if Espinoza goes to the front and takes no prisoners.   Seems more likely to try a derby type ride, where he sits just off and waits to push the button.  

I just hope they all show up, because I think it is going to be very interesting.

Rob

[pizzalove]

Baffert will send AP to the lead.  No doubt.  Try to get out and back the race up.  Question is will the other morons let this happen?  Will they be foolish enough to say I will crawl along back here and catch him at the end.  Hope not.  Lets race.

[toppled]

pizzalove:
Outside of Materiality & Carpe Diem, nobody in the race is capable of running with him early unless they\'re on a suicide mission. War Story going out is moronic & he\'ll finish dead last if he guns out there.  

Since you were so spot on in your Derby pace analysis, beware that you\'re right again.  If you have the race pace figured out, don\'t bet against yourself on a prayer that the jockeys will do something counter to their & their horses normal behavior.  

Contrary to many here, I just want to see a Triple Crown again.  I don\'t even care much about betting the race.  I\'m sure there will be plenty of other races that provide greater value that day.  Even if AP loses, the winner will be among the logical choices & not pay much. About half this field has no chance & the odds will reflect that.  Anyone looking for the next D\'Tara is in the wrong year.

[HP]

I think the question is - how hard did AP work in the Preakness?  He hit the button on the turn and that was it.  The other Derby horses were toast.

[boston]

Anyone have the Thorograph Race Shape for the Derby?  In the Preakness Dort, Firing were seen as faster early pace horses and DR was just as fast.  I am guessing that Materiality was seen as faster in the Derby.