Examining the Trends

[sheba87]

There seemed to be a number of horses coming into this race with choppy patterns, so I wanted to see the type of patterns that have been successful in winning the Derby.

I looked at the old sheets and found some interesting tidbits.

There have been 3 Derby winners since 1982 that have won the race after regressing in their race prior to the Derby.

They are Swale, Thunder Gulch and Monarchos.

If you factor in a regression at any point of the three year old year, you can add the following.

Lil E Tee, regressed .5 in one of his races prior to his final Derby prep.
Silver Charm regressed .5 in on of his prior races.
Charismatic regressed .75 early in his 3yo year.
War Emblem regressed 1.25 early in his 3yo year.

So in the last 22 Derby\'s, there has been 15 times a horse has not regressed at all in his 3yo year prior to the Derby.  

Given this data, I think it makes it much easier to toss Wimbledon, Imperialism, Read the Footnotes, St. Averil, Smarty Jones, The Cliff\'s Edge, Limehouse, Birdstone, Song of the Sword and Action This Day.  A harder toss because it was a small move, but a toss nonetheless is Quinton\'s Gold Rush.

There you go, a simple look at past Derby sheets and I have 11 tossed.  This is going to be an easy Derby.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

lol

I have to respect you\'re study. Its as scientific as any and it sounds like you\'re gone back to T-Graphs \"basement of time\"...lol (I\"m assuming its T-Graph figs you\'re studying.) Assuming also you are correct in this statistical study you\'ve eliminated half the field and are left with the following horses, assuming Value Plus passes, who on your premise you would also eliminate:

Friends Lake
Tapit
Castledale
Lionheart
Pollard's Vision
Minister Eric
Borrego
Master David
Pro Prado

What do you do box the remainder? or bet Lion Heart who figures to be second or third choice? lol

Now you do realize you have elimated Birdstone on an anti rail bias and have eliminated Imperialism upon a troubled last trip do you not? Does your theory of necessary progression allow for forgiving or throwing out one race?

Additionally, your theory would allow for a very marginal horse to throw an absolute stinker in provided he progressed marginally in his second three year old start.

Then, you\'re theory doesn\'t address the tops of the tossed horses and the projected tops of those with their nose to the progression grindstone. In other words can horses forging upon 1\'s, 2\'s and 3\'s validate this theory with horses having regression in their patterns that have run -1\'s and better?

But assuming you\'ve correct and you may be...whose you\'re winner?

lol

[sheba87]

I apologize, I thought the last comment I made about it being easy to toss those 11 was obviously tongue in cheek.  It is hard to convey sarcasm through the computer sometimes.

I do think it is interesting that only three horses have won the Derby in 22 years with a backwards move prior to the race.  I also believe that any statistical analysis has to be looked at in context, which is why I am skeptical of many Derby handicapping \"rules\" that come up every year.

The main reason I wanted to look at the patterns of the winners is because I was having a hard time deciding what to do with Wimbledon\'s pattern.  I don\'t like the big move back and to be honest, in the context of the SA Derby, I still don\'t like it.

As for the others, I will examine them on a case by case basis.  

Since you hopefully read this post also, could you comment on the pedigree of Pollard\'s Vision?  I thought his female family was extremely impressive but I can\'t get it out of my head that he is by Carson City, who I can\'t imagine getting a Derby winner.  Thanks.

[Silver Charm]

That pedigree is why Pollards Vision is such an easy toss.

Next.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

sheba87 wrote:

> I apologize, I thought the last comment I made about it being
> easy to toss those 11 was obviously tongue in cheek.

Well, I\'m struggling mightily with this Derby its as challenging a race to handicap as I\'ve ever seen and if you had the winner I wanted to know...lol My Bad for missing your humor

 
> I do think it is interesting that only three horses have won
> the Derby in 22 years with a backwards move prior to the race.
> I also believe that any statistical analysis has to be looked
> at in context, which is why I am skeptical of many Derby
> handicapping \"rules\" that come up every year.

Obviously, stats are important but there are exceptions and if you delve into when they are likely to occur, you\'re gonna be onto value. Many wagers are stat based, admittedly many times stats are the way to go. I don\'t have a base to really say Wimbleton can bounce back. All I know is the numbers are a big factor here and regressions are less important to me in consideration of the big figures run recently by young 3 yr olds. Who really thinks Lionheart, TCE or Smarty Jones is gonna win on a negative 4? In consideration of performance limits I\'m looking for returns to form or near form as much as of forging, especially when the figures get this fast. The previously fast horses could bow out. I know thats a possibility. Didn\'t you say Monarchos regressed and won? I consider that a \"new era\" Derby. I do realize Monarchos bowed out shortly thereafter.

> The main reason I wanted to look at the patterns of the winners
> is because I was having a hard time deciding what to do with
> Wimbledon\'s pattern.

ME TOO...lol

  I don\'t like the big move back and to be
> honest, in the context of the SA Derby, I still don\'t like it.

Don\'t like the regression either. I\'ve never bet a horse in the Derby on a 12 length regression.

Don\'t get me wrong, I\'m not advocating Wimbledon. All I know is his trainer is shrewd, he ran one good one, he\'s got a jock that won\'t send him too early (provided he stays with the horse) and he\'s working well. He won\'t be my key, but whichever I do key I\'ll probably box him with Wimbledon because I\'m scared to death of him

> Since you hopefully read this post also, could you comment on
> the pedigree of Pollard\'s Vision?  I thought his female family
> was extremely impressive but I can\'t get it out of my head that
> he is by Carson City, who I can\'t imagine getting a Derby
> winner.  Thanks.

Being by Carson City looks to be breeding he will have to overcome. (But to some extent he already has) To my knowledge Carson City has had three 9 mark performers. Pollard\'s Vision, State City (NOT STATE CITY..can\'t recall other) and Flying Chevron. That said Carson has some nice \"Overbrook\" Pedigree and has sired a nice number of good horses. Carson City\'s Dosage is better than Mr. Prospector or Danzig and in all candor I don\'t think he's gotten the best mares. The impact of the mare can\'t be overstated. Look at this link:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?h=ROLL+OVER+BABY&g=5&query_type=progeny&search_bar=progeny&done=y&inbred=Standard&x2=n&username=&password=&x=0&y=0

The above mare is the dam  of Value Plus and he\'s a good quick horse, but she was mated to Carson City and got a quick one named MajorBigTimeSheet. Just pointing out good horses come from good matchups. This matchup was probably speed on speed.

Pollards mare is solid. Though she herself was unraced, she is by Dixieland Band over a mare that finished 2nd in the Kentucky Oaks. ...but if you look direct tail female you see a Triple Tiara winner (Chris Evert) a couple generations back. Pollards dam side is solid, but a lot in here have nice pedigree:

http://www.pedigreequery.com/index.php?query_type=check&search_bar=horse&h=pollards+vision&g=5&inbred=Standard&x2=n

Todd Pletcher spoke a bit about the horse in a DRF interview. Read it for yourself and decide what you think. I would hate to characterize it:

http://www.drf.com/tc/kentuckyderby/2004/ntra.html

One thing to ask yourself with Lionheart in the race and picking up 12 pounds is:
can Pollard be as effective with a lead pace scenario?  MO's pace ratings say "no". I'm trying to figure that out now and have to analyze the Illinois Derby Card. Also Velasquez didn\'t ride Pollard on Illinois Derby day and I haven\'t ascertained why yet. Figuring out Pletcher's plans could be important in this race. Maybe he\'s gonna try to send Pollard and that's why Value Plus is sitting this one out. Pollard didn\'t do as well rating in the Louisiana Derby.

I've probably confused the issue. On my reckoning (non T-graph) Pollard is within a couple lengths of Lionheart. He picks up 12 pounds. Last race Lionheart came home in 25:12, Pollard in 25:96, supposedly on a slower pace.  View "kentuckyderby.com" and decide if it was easy. To me the weight and pace factors are more important than the breeding. TGJB has Pollard in a nice Future Bet, he's made few mistakes so far, but I'm sure Lionheart is worrying him.



Post Edited (04-26-04 21:51)

[MO]

\"......3 horses in the last 22 years have won the Derby with a backward move\"

Only 2 my friend. The 3rd cheated.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

The key period of time however is the last 3-4 years. Thats when theres been a relatively significant change in the way a horse comes up to the Derby. At least thats my take on it.

[Michael D.]

cordero and JR were quite high on la reina (as was i). not only did JR dump pollards vision, but he also gave up the mount on ashado that day. an expensive mistake, either way you look at it. in yesterday\'s drf, pletcher said that PV would rate a bit, and try and tuck in behind other horses. given the fact that the horse just won a $500k race on the lead, the derby winner from two years back won the same race on the lead, and the horse only has one eye, i have to imagine there was a bit of bluff in that statement. PV is indeed the pace wildcard. when JR sets his sights on a lone speed horse, the horse always gets hooked, and gets hooked early. i\'m not saying PV can win this, and i have no idea what the connections are planning, but if they go after LH early, everything changes.

[derby1592]

Sheba87,

I think you have sifted out some relevant data. I do have a few comments.

I agree with comments from others that you have to be careful about any hard-and-fast rules but it makes sense to me to look for trends in past Derbies just as you have done.

With all deference to the accuracy of TG figs, I would say a fractional pt difference could be considered a pair-up rather than a regression so the Silver Charm, Lil E Tee and Charismatic lines were pretty much constantly forward moving as 3yos IMO.

Keep in mind that the Derby IS different than any other race because of distance. Paraphrasing Bob Baffert, when they stretch out to 9f is when they begin to separate the men from the boys. Most of these horses are, and never will be, capable of running their tops at 10f unless they get a very favorable pace scenario.

Given this, if a horse regresses when they first stretch out to 9f, it is bad sign and if follows that they are unlikely to run their top going even farther on Derby day. I think most of the bad figs in the final Derby preps are probably due to emerging distance limitations more than anything else. With that intro as a backdrop you might notice something fairly unique about the three horses you mentioned that bounced back in the Derby and won after subpar final Derby preps(Monarchos, Thunder Gulch and Swale) - in that they all ran a new top at 9f prior to their bounce. I think that is the key takeaway. You know it was not the distance that caused the bounce it was probably something else - something that might not prevent them from running big on Derby Day.

The tough part is that there is so little data for this unique race and the landscape is changing fast. Still, sheet fundamentals should apply if you put them in the context of the unique distance and the fact that almost all the entrants are pointing toward the race.

Thus, a strong, forward moving line that includes a top at 9f with no big jump in their final Derby prep (3 pts or more) would make a horse a logical contender (assuming the horse is fast enough to be relevant since I don\'t think you can expect anything better than a pair-up or a 1-2 pt improvement on Derby Day).  

Of course, I could be wrong...

Chris

[Silver Charm]

>Of course, I could be wrong...

Chris your track record over the last several months indicates otherwise.

Also your point about Silver Charm is dead on. Baffert ordered the horse into a speed duel with filly Sharp Cat in the SA Derby because he wanted to get him tightened up. He was lazy work horse but a gamer on the track. This cost him the race but set him up for the next one. A half-point regression is meaningless in his case.

Let edit this because it may the race previous the San Felipe that someone was using as the regression. That had more to do with a very lazy work prior to the race and McCarron having him way back off the pace. Hence everything changed in the SA Derby



Post Edited (04-27-04 14:23)