10 of the 20 horses have not got backwards

[boston]

I have taken some liberties with some early starts.

Here are the 7 that have absolutely not gone backwards:

Keen Ice
War Story
Bolo
Tencendur
Firing Line
Materiality
American Pharoh

3 horses with some liberties taken:

Mubtaahig (backwards after first start - 8 day rest - turf - Oct 4)
International Star (only start on Syn - Oct 5)
Stanford (after first start-only .5 point backwards-Aug 10-probably injured in race)

[jp702006]

16 or 17 of them are going to on Saturday! I just need to figure out the 3 or 4 who won\'t:)

[boston]

That is funny and true.

[boston]

Of the 8 horses that had not gone backwards going into KD only one has not gone backwards as of now.

Keen Ice  moved forward by 2.25 in KD



War Story  backed up 3.75 in KD
Bolo  backed up 1.75 in KD
Tencendur  Xed by 16 in KD
Firing Line Xed by 23 in Preakness
Materiality  backed up 4 in KD
American Pharoh  backed up 2.5 in Preakness
Mubtaahig backed up 0.75 in KD

[boston]

I believe only 4 of the past 23 Belmont winners have not gone backwards entering the Belmont.

2014 Tonalist
2007 Rags to Riches
1994 Tabasco Cat
1992 AP Indy

I do not know how many horses that have not gone backwards entering the Belmont have lost the Belmont.

[SoCalMan2]

boston Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Of the 8 horses that had not gone backwards going
> into KD only one has not gone backwards as of
> now.
>
> Keen Ice  moved forward by 2.25 in KD
>
>
>
> War Story  backed up 3.75 in KD
> Bolo  backed up 1.75 in KD
> Tencendur  Xed by 16 in KD
> Firing Line Xed by 23 in Preakness
> Materiality  backed up 4 in KD
> American Pharoh  backed up 2.5 in Preakness
> Mubtaahig backed up 0.75 in KD

Don\'t know what you want to do with Mubxxxx

He did in fact go backwards out of his debut, but that was turf in England.

If that is not counted as a bounce, I am not so sure I would count the 0.75 move as a bounce. It is mighty close to a pair...and you are dealing with a speed figure for an Arabian Peninsula track which may not have the same level of figure firmness that major US Tracks have.

Also, we have a situation where his US number is not Lasix aided yet he was running against horses that were getting Lasix.  

My big question is that if MUB gets first Lasix in the Belmont, and he is training over big Sandy in advance (as opposed to training out of quarantine at AP).....can you give the horse a big jump up on the basis that the Derby figure was pretty good considering how far behind the 8 ball the horse was and that he is now getting Lasix for the first time with far more optimal training prep under his belt.

I seem to recall there have been some cases in years past where foreign imports have done well in the Belmont......Go and Go comes to mind, but I think there were others that came in strong underneath (Bold Arrangement maybe?)

[miff]

Unless De Kock changes his mind, no Lasix for Moob. Those who like him will be happy to know he is bred both sides for 12 furlongs and sports best distance breeding for race, Materiality second.

[bellsbendboy]

Mike can you confirm a post from the boss across the street that \"Moob\" could not win a md sp wt @ Belmont?  bbb

[magicnight]

My Memoirs ran 2nd to AP Indy in 1992.

[miff]

Bell,

12 panels a very different race, Moob slow on figs but has probably acclimated better by now, no lasix a negative.Longshot slug with a shot if fast ones over the top, purely on distance breeding.


Mike

[joemama]

Wasn\"t that Commissioner last year?

[big18741]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Unless De Kock changes his mind, no Lasix for
> Moob. Those who like him will be happy to know he
> is bred both sides for 12 furlongs and sports best
> distance breeding for race, Materiality second.


Frosted who is now definite has some pretty good Belmont stuff in his pedigree.

His sire won this last year with Tonalist and the damsire Deputy Minister has three Belmont winners Rags,Jazil,Sarava plus one that he sired in Touch Gold.

[boston]

I believe I counted 25 horses since 1992 that have not gone backwards coming into the Belmont - 4 have won.  5 horse went forward and 3 horses paired - the other 18 went backwards.

61 horses have not gone backwards in their 3 year old season coming into the Belmont.  9 moved forward and 7 paired - 45 backwards.