VERVE went backwards on BRIS! Huh?

[JohnTChance]

Not sure if this has been part of the conversation here. Forgive me if it\'s already been discussed. Nevertheless...

Just downloaded Brisnet\'s early pp's for the Belmont and was quite flabbergasted to see that BRIS had TALE OF VERVE's splendid Preakness performance actually going backwards (92) from his prior race when he broke his maiden (95)! ThoroGraphically speaking, this is absurd. Since I agree with how Jerry saw the Preakness, my only eyebrow raise vis a vis Verve would be to question whether Verve's maiden breaker (12) really should be faster (a 9-ish? Not sure.) so as to make that one's line more of a gradual forge than the sudden and curious explosion it is now. We know when Dallas Stewart changes his vet from Louisiana to Kentucky, good things can happen, but those good things are usually gradual forges, not sudden explosions. And usually, like PERFECT SOUL, once they explode, that's the end of them and they disappoint from there on out.

JohnTChance

P.S. - Jerry, if Ragozin numbers suck as you imply, why do people still buy them?

[TGJB]

As I pointed out here yesterday, BRIS has Fame And Power running 108 on Preakness day, AP 100.

Re your question, the ones who take the time to compare or know something about figures don\'t. In a few cases it\'s because they\'re getting them for close to nothing.

[T Severini]

Tale of Verve couldn\'t possibly go backwards on Brisnet correct?

If he goes back that means on AP\'s Tgraph is what a 2 or 3? But they don\'t measure precisely the same things.

What about Diving Rod? He was a top 3 figure animal and on somewhat of an erratic pattern. A 3 means he held form. Why couldn\'t it have been a 6? Other than everyone else gets three slower points? Diving Rod was a bit turf bred so maybe he flat footed about the churn and held serve for his 3.

In the end on this race, it\'s all going to be about adjustments and can\'t recall the last race I tried to evaluate with as much utter chaos as this one.

According to Brisnet, AP just beat a backward moving post Maiden horse by 7.

Been looking at the Fame and Power race as well. Fame and Power beats a horse by 3 AP was handling by 6 or so, but these animals develop quickly this time of year. Fame and Power is a Juddmonte horse and trained by Baffert. He caught a track he liked, but would not be surprised to see this one at Saratoga.

In the end, in my opinion, the Preakness Stakes itself cannot be deciphered. All one can really say is that it took a conditioning toll on many of the horses. The real question is did it leave any unscathed?

JohnTChance Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Not sure if this has been part of the conversation
> here. Forgive me if it\'s already been discussed.
> Nevertheless...
>
> Just downloaded Brisnet\'s early pp's for the
> Belmont and was quite flabbergasted to see that
> BRIS had TALE OF VERVE's splendid Preakness
> performance actually going backwards (92) from his
> prior race when he broke his maiden (95)!
> ThoroGraphically speaking, this is absurd. Since I
> agree with how Jerry saw the Preakness, my only
> eyebrow raise vis a vis Verve would be to question
> whether Verve's maiden breaker (12) really should
> be faster (a 9-ish? Not sure.) so as to make that
> one's line more of a gradual forge than the sudden
> and curious explosion it is now. We know when
> Dallas Stewart changes his vet from Louisiana to
> Kentucky, good things can happen, but those good
> things are usually gradual forges, not sudden
> explosions. And usually, like PERFECT SOUL, once
> they explode, that's the end of them and they
> disappoint from there on out.
>
> JohnTChance
>
> P.S. - Jerry, if Ragozin numbers suck as you
> imply, why do people still buy them?