Answering my own question...

[TGJB]

In the last 20 years, only in 96, 98 (Victory Gallop/Solis) and 2003 did the Derby winner not run the best figure in the race.

[T Severini]

2003 was Funny Cide.

I think Empire Maker was a bit wider, so guessing he\'s the better figure....

But you\'re not just throwing that out there. You\'re foreseeing AP getting a wide trip, like five wide first turn aren\'t you?

[TGJB]

Yes on Empire Maker. I was following up on an earlier discussion on another thread. But I do think AP could catch a wide trip.

[bellsbendboy]

What do you make the percentage chance of AP being on the lead the first time under the wire? bbb

[TGJB]

If you mean clearing on the lead, unlikely unless he goes a very fast first quarter. My guess is first flight, outside.

[bellsbendboy]

Roger that.  I think Victor will be told to send; unless someone goes crazy, in which case he can drop in tight and won\'t be wide at all.    With the new points system the precocious sprinters aren\'t here and this colt is clearly gifted, though a remarkable half the field won their debut sprinting.  Tough heat indeed!

If he has a hole it could be that he is not battle tested, has had a left front issue and/or his pedigree is a bit light.  None of which are Victor\'s problem.

Another point in the favor of putting him on the lead or very close to it... it makes the inside horses very susceptible to early traffic as all the inside horses are in tight quarters taking major dirt.

Lastly, the seminar at fifteen bucks is the best Derby handicapping product on the market.  Nice work.  bbb

[TGJB]

Baffert is not very ground loss conscious, he likes his runners to stalk outside. Works fine in small Cal fields, cost Real Quiet a triple crown. Unlikely they will drop this one in behind horses, Race Shape makes him unlikely to clear.

[T Severini]

Regarding American Pharoah...I\'m guessing a lot more wide than most:

1 Five wide or more first time by the wire and into the near turn...
2 either that or expend valuable energy early to be 1 or 2 wide or
3 modify running style to tuck in.

Don\'t foresee scenario\'s 2 or 3

It occurred to me that Upstart is in the same dilemma and both AP and Upstart are terribly compromised because they have not been true one run horses. TGJB may have been thinking about best figure Derby non winners because Upstart could run the best number and not hit the board.

Want a little history. Look at the starting gate closely. It is not perpendicular to the line of travel. It is offset slightly and the auxiliary gate for pace horses is a recipe for disaster. But, disaster is great for those in disaster management.



bellsbendboy Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Roger that.  I think Victor will be told to send;
> unless someone goes crazy, in which case he can
> drop in tight and won\'t be wide at all.    With
> the new points system the precocious sprinters
> aren\'t here and this colt is clearly gifted,
> though a remarkable half the field won their debut
> sprinting.  Tough heat indeed!
>
> If he has a hole it could be that he is not battle
> tested, has had a left front issue and/or his
> pedigree is a bit light.  None of which are
> Victor\'s problem.
>
> Another point in the favor of putting him on the
> lead or very close to it... it makes the inside
> horses very susceptible to early traffic as all
> the inside horses are in tight quarters taking
> major dirt.
>
> Lastly, the seminar at fifteen bucks is the best
> Derby handicapping product on the market.  Nice
> work.  bbb

[TGJB]

Upstart will not be on the lead.

[T Severini]

No, never projected him trying to expend energy to be near the lead. You\'ll have him tuck.

The precarious edge


TGJB Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Upstart will not be on the lead.

[bellsbendboy]

ALL starting gates are askew, ever back up a tractor with a trailer in a tight space? bbb

[T Severini]

Logically, its also an attempt to prevent immediate mayhem.

If American Pharoah wins this race, he\'s a monster.


I\'ve got one more post tonight and then I have to move on to handicapping. I\'m joining the party late this year.