Why Isn't Frosted a bounce candidate?

[Focus959]

Are we just forgiving the FOY due to the throat issue or that it wasn\'t too big a jump from the 2yo top? Or both?  Bounce potential for me.

[SoCalMan2]

Focus959 Wrote:
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> Are we just forgiving the FOY due to the throat
> issue or that it wasn\'t too big a jump from the
> 2yo top? Or both?  Bounce potential for me.


For a healthy normal 3 yo, the bounce potential needs to be measured from what the horse\'s previous top was, not from an off race.  While the wood fig may look like a jump up in comparison to his florida races, it is not such a big jump up from his Remsen.  Now, you might say his Remsen was a jump up itself, but you have to recognize that those earlier races he was running without the benefit of Lasix and he was still improving and developing having never hit a reaction point yet.  Nothing is every 100%, but I would say he is less likely to bounce than he is to pair up or move forward more.  I view his jockey as a larger question mark than he is.

[Gerard]

Not sure if this adds anything, but supposedly the reaction to first time blinks in the FOY were an issue as well. They trimmed them back for the Wood.

[Bet Twice]

If you didn\'t have any context around the situation he would be a strong bounce candidate IMO.  Given the throat surgery you could argue that his bad races were related to that issue and that his last race was more reflective of his true ability.  If those bad races had been zeroes or thereabouts ( sans issue) his sheet would look awesome.  Based on the expected odds and closer review of his sheet I have changed my opinion on him and will include as an \"a\" horse.

[richiebee]

Factors against a possible bounce-- Frosted\'s \"extensive\" (4 race) 2YO campaign
and the fact that KMac has been putting out winners at an approx 40% clip over
the last six weeks or so...