Pattern Question

[miff]

Already told you that Wood day made no sense when you do figs off the clock vs SOLELY off the horses. Guess you used El Kabir and two also rans to get where you did.

[ajkreider]

In fairness (to myself), MJ asked to ignore those other factors.  But, the fact that you\'re looking for (what may be justifiable) excuses in the two races that they faced each other says something.

If the sheets were the same, just 5 points slower, I might like Frosted\'s line better.  But we\'re hitting the rev limiter with these numbers.

Upstart\'s only worse-than-a-zero in his last 6 races was flying across country late in the game to just miss second to Carpe Diem in that oddly run Juvy.  They\'re going farther here, but I\'m going to pencil him in for a zero or better.

[Tavasco]

Tavasco wrote:
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Even the Holy Bull becomes, in hind sight, a little mysterious (re: perfect heath) given Frosted didn\'t finish as he typically does.

miff Wrote:
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> Already told you that Wood day made no sense when
> you do figs off the clock vs SOLELY off the
> horses. Guess you used El Kabir and two also rans
> to get where you did.


I was just considering whether Frosteds health problems started earlier than the FOY? Thanks for adding to an already confused mind.

[johnnym]

Agree

[bellsbendboy]

The Wood is one of four or five major preps and its hard to focus on that particular figure in my mind, given the disagreements and conjecture.  Bottom line a Godolphin, who had had a tough winter in Florida, wins very solidly.  Most years, this type is certainly single digits to win the Derby. Not this heat,  twenty to one is plenty possible with a bad draw.  If fast enough, in the past, you can\'t fault anyone on his bandwagon.

Upstart is pure racehorse who is not far from being undefeated and he lights it up on both the track and on the \"Thorometer\" every time.  Lost on a floated surface in the Champagne to a freakish performance, got the worst of the draw on the left coast and always competes.  A Ny bred,  both grandfathers Belmont winners, but, he also had some missteps in Miami with a sinus infection and maybe antibiotics?  Another that would ordinarily be single digit odds; yet twelve(ish) to one seems likely. Would guess many \"TG\"ers may land here.

At any rate, I\'m not a sheet player expert but separating these two seems a dicey proposition;  of course that may be the intent of the thread originator Mjellish?  bbb

[jbelfior]

If I counted correctly, that\'s 6 excuses for Upstart. His next one should be that he\'s trained by Rick Violette.

Good Luck,
Joe B