Who is the Wise Guy Horse ???

[holybull95]

What has been Dickinson\'s track record in the next race after he pulls his magic act?  Pair up, move forward, bounce?

[Silver Charm]

You really don\'t want to know.

I won\'t sleep a wink tonight after looking it up.

[holybull95]

Silver Charm, I\'m in New Jersey and its past my bedtime.....

[kev]

TAP  8-1ML down to 7-1
TCE  8-1ML down to 6-1
SJ   7-1ML either 7-1 or up to 8-1

TAP  gray,close well.
TCE  ran good last out, Nick Z.
SJ   no name jockey will help his odds.

Who will Pay Day be riding?? count on his odds going down.

[Michael D.]

as for tapit, i see more skeptics than fans around. when was the last time dickinson pulled a rabbit out of a hat going 10f on dirt? no wiseguy horses around this year...

[Upper Nile]

The new (I guess they\'re not so new anymore) TG figure-based trainer profile for Dickenson shows he get\'s another top out of his runners 60% of the time next race out after a new top by at least 1 point. It\'s a small sample though of only 15 starts.  Tapit is slower than several others with just the one 2 in his last and Tapit will need some luck to get a clean come-from-behind trip. He has less racing experience than I typically want to see.  And he\'ll be an underlay. I\'ve eliminated him as a contender.  I\'m leaning hevvily towards Friend\'s Lake and Pollard\'s Vision.  I\'ll get into the details of what I like about them soon.
Best of Luck to all.
Phil

[Silver Charm]

Hate pile on top of your post Upper Nile becasue you make some VERY GOOD points but I need to run.

I am not sure who the Wise Guy Horse/Horses will be but I know who the wise guy is and its Dickinson. The articles by Dave Greening at DRF and Rick Bozich at CourierJournal.com were hysterical. I kept thinking I was in the lead car at the trotter tracks or better yet Lion Country Safari with Animal Kingdom or Crocadile Dundee.

Also as someone who has been a critic of the media for standing around the Baffert barn like they\'re his 24/7 security guards. I tip my hat to them for getting up there (Tapeta) and seeing firsthand what is going on. The Derby is too important for some horse to come in from the farmland fog with no one knowing what has been going on.

[HP]

I\'ll be the Tapit fan. The horse was lollygagging around in the stretch in the Wood and he still managed to get by. I posted this before - what are the odds that this horse goes backwards here? I assume he\'s healthy and I think he stands a very good chance of moving forward another point or two after a solid prep (but probably didn\'t knock him out) and three weeks at Fair Hill. If he gets a decent draw, he has the stalking/closing style you want in this field, which should have plenty going on the front end.  

Getting a horse fit and ready to go 10f is right up Dickinson\'s alley. The \"lack of preps\" thing is going to get some people\'s attention, and others have better Beyer (and TG) figs - so I\'m thinking he\'ll be more like 8-1.

The big issue I see with Tapit is, will he like Churchill Downs? At 8-1 or better I\'m in and he\'s a key.

As for the others, it\'s early but I agree with Upper Nile on both Friends Lake and Pollard\'s Vision. Master David will probably be no value but can\'t be ignored. Imperialism (Desormeaux), Minister Eric (Day aboard) and Wimbledon (I\'m more skeptical here) are others that may be sleepers. I\'m on the fence with Borrego (I\'d like to get at least 18-1) and I would be happyto see Pro Prado in there (30-1 at least with a real chance).

Good luck.

HP

[jbelfior]

HP--

Not sure you will see 18-1 on BORREGO. as for MINISTER ERIC, I think they will need an hour glass to clock his finishing time.

POLLARD\'s VISION has a nice pattern if you look at TGJB Derby sheets. He needs to relax early and I\'m betting that Johnny V. is the right one to get him to do it. Still must improve slighly to get the roses.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[holybull95]

Thanks, UpperNile, for the Dickinson profile info.  How does he stack up against some of the other major player Derby trainers?  At first glance that percentage jumps out at you even though a small sample.  Are others close to that number?

[HP]

I agree with you at first glance on Minister Eric. However, if there is one race where I\'ll give the jockeys a little more weight it\'s this one. I would really be upset if Day rode a longshot that came in third and knocked me out of the tri or super (he\'s done it to me before on horses I dismissed in the Derby). Minister Eric, even with Day aboard, will be 25-1 easy.

Personally I\'m upset that Eddington won\'t get in. Based on this board, talk about a wise guy horse! HP

[Upper Nile]

If Pro Prado gets in and unfortunatly it\'s looking like it is a big if, he will be added to my list with Pollard & Friend\'s.  This horse has never gone backwards. Starts off the year with a 5 1/2, a good figure to start off the year-not too fast-a nice progressive 3 point improvement from last year and then his new top of a 1 gets duplicated 2 more times!  If a pair up of a new top is reason to expect another forward move with developing 3yo\'s then this line surely is reason to wager he will improve. Especially at the big price.  But it\'s looking like we will have to wait for another day with Pro Prado.
Phil

[Tim25]

The wise guy horse(s)are Eddington and Rock Hard Ten for the Preakness. Is there anywhere I can lay a bet that niether will win.