Early Brisnet Form

[johnnym]

http://www.brisnet.com/brisnet_promos/KentuckyDerby15.pdf

Of all the Derby horses..
Good Luck

[Fairmount1]

I have no clue and no desire to understand how brisnet creates their figures.  I have friends that use brisnet pp\'s and again, I have no desire to move away from drf and tg.  With that said I took a peek.

Is it safe to assume how they calculated the Wood?  Miff, do they split races out or never .....like JB\'s good friends in Ragville?

[miff]

Brisnet/Equibase figs are off the wall 50% of the time, when I last checked. Many players use Bris pp\'s, lotta info for the $$

[Tavasco]

As someone who uses brisnet for pace figures which allow me to compute a %E i,e, a pct of energy expended up to the pace call of a race I look for a %e near ,50 for a 1+1/4 race. This list below relects the horses most recent best race. Some examples and my interpretation.

.45 International Star - won\'t catch winner
.57 Dortmund - won\'t last
.50 Carpe Diem - perfect most likely to contend for win
.46 American Pharoah -  from Rebel .52 in AK Derby contender
.52 Frosted - ? too last for win
.57 Materiality - won\'t last
.51 Upstart - the enigma
.54 Tencendur - one race wonder to date
.49 Stanford - surprising & under the radar c/b the super bomb does not need to lead.

[RICH]

as far as early energy I see around 51.25 for 1 1/4 at cd fwiw

[Tavasco]

Rich - Glad You Rang In.

Well now, a little more precise than I go but I\'m not too far from you. I include any weight adj in the LP so my #\'s may be 1-2 point lower in comparison. I consider 49-51 & capable of TG 1 as contenders. Keeping in mind that a couple of quick ones  e.g. Dortmund & Material are more capable of slowing it down than than slow early can speed it up.

As others have pointed out since we have no confirmed need to lead type looking more and more like we end up with one of those track & field strategic races slow early jockeying for position sprint late? Complicated by Tencendur and Stanford two who tried going gate to wire in their last and both got caught (so I expect them to throttle down). Just cannot see any sneaking off to much of a lead.

51.25 points to Upstart (the enigma) for me? Since ACE\'s story is so compelling looks like, as of 4/14 a.m. it\'s Dubai over and under the usual suspects.

I\'m ready to advance to the most important angle, current condition, who is kicking down the barn and burning up the training track? Oh, best wait till next week,

[Acesover]

early energy of the winner from previous Derbys

2014 51.92
2013-don\'t have
2012-51.79
2011-49
2010-50.81
2009-49
2008-51.06
2007- 51.20
2006-51.18
2005-51.11
2004-51.95
2003-51.69
2002-50.80

[mjellish]

To what pole are you measuring this?  3/4 pole?

[Holybull1]

Acesover Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> early energy of the winner from previous Derbys
>
> 2014 51.92
> 2013-don\'t have
> 2012-51.79
> 2011-49
> 2010-50.81
> 2009-49
> 2008-51.06
> 2007- 51.20
> 2006-51.18
> 2005-51.11
> 2004-51.95
> 2003-51.69
> 2002-50.80

These are in the Derby itself or the last prep?  The last prep numbers would be significant I think.

[Acesover]

Holybull1 Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Acesover Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > early energy of the winner from previous Derbys
> >
> > 2014 51.92
> > 2013-don\'t have
> > 2012-51.79
> > 2011-49
> > 2010-50.81
> > 2009-49
> > 2008-51.06
> > 2007- 51.20
> > 2006-51.18
> > 2005-51.11
> > 2004-51.95
> > 2003-51.69
> > 2002-50.80
>
> These are in the Derby itself or the last prep?
> The last prep numbers would be significant I
> think.


2013- 51.03

those are for the Derby itself

the 49\'s are likely lower but 49 is as low as my scale goes

[P-Dub]

Tavasco Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> As others have pointed out since we have no
> confirmed need to lead type looking more and more
> like we end up with one of those track & field
> strategic races slow early jockeying for position
> sprint late? Complicated by Tencendur and Stanford
> two who tried going gate to wire in their last and
> both got caught (so I expect them to throttle
> down). Just cannot see any sneaking off to much of
> a lead.
>

I would think that long shots like these two, that raced on the lead and were caught late, would try the same tactics.

Either that or throttle them down, and have them running in the same pack with superior animals. I would have them show their natural speed once again, and see what happens. Cleaner trip too.

[TGJB]

Tencendur is not a front runner, and I\'m not so sure Stamford will run.

[johnnym]

I predict Dortmund is on the lead at the 1/2 mile

[joemama]

Half in 46?