Kee 4/17: The Lexington

[Michael D.]

tiger heart: needs big improvement off last route. another \"7\" or so predicted.

song: short rest. could bounce a bit, run a \"3\" and contend. top 4 showing expected.

gamblin: too slow.

pomeroy: pointed towards this for a while (as opposed to most here). pace scenerio works against however. looking for a big jump when cutting back, expecting a repeat of last stretching out a bit. underneath only.

suave: tough stretch of races here. probably the best animal in the race, but the timing anf kee strip might prevent him improving just yet. another \"3\" o so expected. contender.

fire: speedball kee strip is just what he needs. with the nice timing coming in, i guess he has a chance, but i\'m only predicting a slight improvement off his last two races. run in the \"4-5\" is predicted. tough to use on top at low odds.

boom: tough timing coming in for this speedball. the last two must have taken something out of him. still, if the kee track is playing fast, this one can out sprint the rest of the sprinters, and improve a bit off last two (a toss if the track is looking even a bit heavy). looking for a 1 pt jump to the \"3\" lvl. contender.

dashboard: pace scenerio works in favor big time. should like the kee strip. nice timing, but the stretch out might leave him at the same lvl as last. lookin for better cutting back, a repeat of last today.

race: no

quinton: new trainer will have this guy running pretty fast eventually, but a 2 wk rest of that last race?? could ruin a good horse with false derby dreams. \"3-4\" predicted, as the horse should like the small cut back and the kee strip. with decent rest, i could see this horse running in the negative range at kee in the fall.

bride\'s: liked GP, should like kee. stretch out should not hurt, ran his last 1/8 in 12:2 last. last fig puts him right there. 20-1 ml, won\'t be the odds today. predicting a repeat of last.

el prado rob: looks a bit slow, but obviously like kee. pace scenerio works in his favor, but might find some trouble with 14 horses and the wide post. might run a \"3-4\", but the trip may cost him a showing.

tp: looking for a small jump here, which is not good enough.

sc: post is a killer. could run another \"3\" or so, lose ground, and finish out of the money.

a lot of contenders here, so i must take a stand somewhere. the 11 repeats his last and wins. if the track is quick, i will use the 7 in the second slots, then use the 2,5,10 behind (second and third). good luck everybody!!

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'m in the process of handicapping Keeneland. I know, I know, I just said I don\'t do Keeneland...lol

Now I remember why I stay away from this track. Nothing goes on here except the Bluegrass and the Lexington. Everything else are the cheap marginal horses that are difficult to get a handle on. Theres one other race that interests me, its the one with Best Minister. Remember him?

I\'ve decided to use the Lennyx2/Christ method of handicapping: \"Box all with a chance\" that means:

Song of the Sword, Pomeroy, Suave, Fire Slam, Boomzeboom, Quinton\'s Gold Rush, Brides Best Boy & Saratoga County.

I make that 8 horses. Thats reasonable isn\'t it? Seriously, this is a hot one and I even like horses I didn\'t name.

Gonna have to study the track. I really dont know this strip

Tesio...I thought Linda Albert was Nancy Alberts..lol Senility

Good Luck



Post Edited (04-17-04 14:06)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think the only thing that separates J.D. Bailey and Perret right now is the quality of horses they get to ride.

O.K. I see a horse that looks like Bailey will help him and thats Quintons gold rush. You gotta love all the jockey moves in this race.  New trainer for Quinton so it appears they decided a jockey change was in order. But Nakatani looks like he could have ridden (Boomzeboom) but doesn\'t show up. Anyone know why? And I have no idea where Mike Smith is. Days? Injury? Did I miss something? Anyway it looks like Nakatani got the boot off Quinton.

Sellers obviously gets the boot off Fire Slam on that suicide pace he drilled him into La Derby day. Carrol was outraged over it. So Sellers is out and Day pulled on. Bailey\'s jump off El Prado Rob opens up the mount for Sellers, who Zito likes anyway. Berajano gets less out of Suave than he might so he gets the boot, but he lands in a real soft spot if he and his agent didn\'t choose it.

Bottom line is Bailey should move Quinton up. Quinton deserves to be 5-1 or more even with Bailey. If he\'s less than 5-1 I\'ll beat him with a stick. If he\'s that or more I may ride Quinton along with J.D. but this is a BANG UP race.



Post Edited (04-17-04 16:27)

[Michael D.]

nice call CtC....... bailey and assmussen off 2 weeks rest. no need to wait until the fall to head towards the negative range. \"the only thing that separates bailey and perret is the quality of horses they ride? wow .... these jockeys mean so much in these races. odds shifts of 20% or 30% are sometimes bargains when getting the correct jock switch (especially when it\'s the difference between cashing and tearing up tickets).