Richiebee

[Fairmount1]

What\'s your track of choice for this weekend and what\'s the play?

I bet you are a Bolo fan.

[richiebee]

Fairmount:

Thanks for checking in.

Actually have no feelings for Bolo either way. Like the colt next to him in the
gate, Prospect Park, he seems to be moving forward at the right time of year.

I think Keeneland bears watching the entire Spring as we all seek runners who
will enjoy (or not) the Lexington surfaces at BC time. I agree with the ROTW
analysis that \"Kobe\" is a bad ML favorite in the Commonwealth shipping off a
top effort, and that C. Zee will be strong in that spot. CZ already has two
wins on off tracks and in his only Kee race he ran a good second to eventual BC
Sprint winner Work All Week on a wet fast track last Fall.

Due to the uncertainty regarding the Keeneland surfaces after the heavy rains,
and the fact that previous commitments will prevent me from watching the races
on the Left Coast (poor planning, I know) I might focus on the late P4 at AQ,
where racing should be conducted over a fast track.

Most intriguing runner on the day for me -- 5th race Tampa (post time approx
2:23) (weather does not seem like it will be an issue), World Approval in
something called the \"Sophomore Turf\", 75K purse. World Approval, ML 4/1, is
arguably fastest of these TG wise on turf (limited sample, lightly raced
bunch). This gelding is a half bro to three turf millionaires. At 3/1, 7/2, 4/1
will take a decent swing at the pinata in my first bet at Tampa in many years.
Rafael Hernandez named to ride.

[Fairmount1]

Thanks for the insights!  Always helpful to get the mind running to hear others\' thoughts.
 
The ROTW is a \"messy\" one surface wise and opinion wise as the author points out.  I\'m pulling for the Illinois bred if he runs at Kee instead of OP.  His lone bad effort was on slop at Prairie Meadows losing to Jessica\'s Star but I\'ll excuse that as it was his first two turn race and hope it wasn\'t the slop.  He is fast enough to win and gets an inside draw to save ground.  

Figured you might avoid the LexVegas weather problems.  MA should add value for you at Aq.  You considering the late pick 4 or the all stakes p4 with the heavy RudyRod fav in the Gazelle?  Real value if you beat Condo to start off the all stakes adventure.  I signed up for the free HD video on NYRA\'s website that is now available to everyone as NYRA begins to catch up on that issue.    

World Approval can\'t be missed after watching his replay.  Rafael will be on the Grey/Roan gelding after being on the 4th place finisher behind WA last time.  I\'ll watch and cheer for you.  Lasix really helped him against a large field that he dispatched of fairly easily.  

I\'m expecting big things for Ian Wilkes at the Keeneland/Churchill meetings.  I\'ll be using Silverpocketsful (again--I know I should learn from these \"prior investments\") and Gorgeous Bird in my horizontals among others and watching his horses closely.  He had a winner on the Kee card today.  

Bolo is my best play tomorrow.  I agree with miff on one thing:  I\'m not a Dortmund believer.  If he beats me, so be it.  But tomorrow, I believe the tables get turned when those two hook up and Sise\'s one run lumberjack won\'t get there in time.  St. Joe Bay\'s poor efforts in New Orleans don\'t inspire much confidence for me in PP.

[Tavasco]

Fairmount - regarding Ian Wilkes the following is an excerpt out of a recent daily racing form article Bet This Not That. A run down of trainers @ Kee and some surprising stats.

Bet This Not That

Not That: Ian Wilkes in maiden special weights. Ian Wilkes calls Kentucky home, so his lack of success at Keeneland over the past five years (188-10-16-26, $0.92 ROI) is a bit eye-opening. In Keeneland maiden special weight races, it's even worse, as he's 73-2-7-9 for a $0.49 ROI over the past five years and 44-0-3-5 over the past three. Oh, and at the spring meet for the past two years, his combined record with all runners is 25-0-5-2.

History FWIW

[miff]

If you don\'t like Dortmund for the derby, you\'re supposed to root for him today. Beating him today with a 4-1 shot no biggie.

[Fairmount1]

Agreed, nothing special about picking Bolo.  I really dislike the short field as far as making wagers attractive but beating Dortmund still has significant value I believe in multi\'s.  Ultimately, I just wanted to put a winner out there for richiebee to not use.  

Wilkes was 2 for 29 at Keeneland in the fall followed by a 49--8--11--4 record at Churchill in November.  Worth watching his horses closely now for future reference but I do believe his horses will run well in the graded stakes today at Kee.  Thanks for the info as I missed that Bet This Not That angle.