Wesley Ward, Mott and Tonalist

[Silver Charm]

Ward sent a few live ones out there yesterday. He didn\'t make the trip last year, didn\'t have much in and nothing fired. I like a couple today to run well.

Have a hard time imaging a solid, no force, Trainer like Mott had a handle on Close Hatches at all. Never ran a step and was last beaten 18 lengths. Royal Delta tailed off badly last year but I was willing to give Hatches a pass. So if she fooled him what to think about anything else he has in here today. Cant play him....

Tonalist was never squeezed this year even though he has been campaigning for 10 months. He was never forced into the Florida Derby or Kentucky Derby. The Belmont became a backup Goal. He was turned out after that race. Ran well at Saratoga but not great and the pace scenarios were unusual. Found his usual stride from well off the pace at Belmont and now comes in here off 4 straight 0\'s. He is either gonna pop one today or he isn\'t. Like him by MILES over Chrome, put him equal with Belief. Tricky read, please help....

[TreadHead]

Just gonna point out that Mott did win a stakes race with a shipper on the undercard.  Might be dangerous to make a blanket statement/assertion just because he made a couple mistakes over the last 2 years.

[Wrongly]

Looking for Value was a great play returning $25 to win.  Tossed Close Hatches after seeing her live at Keeneland.  All over Cigar Street who I think will be around 10\\1.

[miff]

Silver,

Tonalist a very tough read indeed.Amazon sized colt very unimpressive training up to BC at Belmont but that\'s pretty much Clement going with what works.Distance up his alley more than anyone in there and if the track should come up wet,he\'s an automatic stand for me as he\'s not grindy like he is on dry surfaces.figures to get pace to run at late.

Bottom line, if SB or CC(training great) show up with their best, he\'s up against it unless he improves.

Good luck
Mike

P.S. Closed Hatches performance borderline criminal act by Hay Oats Water Mott.

[Silver Charm]

A lot of Handicapping decisions I make are dangerous. But I am also not afraid to make one and put it out there pre-race, not post-race....Point taken.

Palice looks like he rarely gets the kind of pace to run into like he will get today. Last year the pace went in 21 and 43. Palice hasn\'t seen a sub 22 opening quarter (on east coast tracks) in over a year. Blew out in 46 over the track. This race might have a quarter horse type finish.

Because of the Arc runnerup finish a lot of people will pile on Flintshire. Fabre if I recollect doesn\'t have the greatest of Breeders Cup records in recent years. Michael Stoute does. Telescope has drawn great, gets the juice, has a chasing leaders pace style, drops weight off last two and might be the Best Bet of the Day!!

[richiebee]

Mott won the Distaff 5 times; quite likely that Juddmonte wanted to run more than the trainer did.

TG and otherwise, Mott\'s Puca looks live in the Juvie Fillies, which for some reason will be shown on NBCSN on a tape delay basis.

Sir Michael Stoute has won 6 BC turf events, 5 of them at SA; my horizontal plays today will assume Sir Michael adds to that total with Dank and/or Telescope.

[Silver Charm]

Miff thanks you may helped me here. As you said this is a grand looking animal who is never over worked. I just don\'t fear Chrome. He reminds me of Orb.

You said the key words however, is Tonalist ready to improve again? Right now he is 2nd choice and perhaps the price isn\'t right enough to take that risk!!

[miff]

Someone said it was \"pouring\" in Arcadia last night so it\'s pretty important to see if maintenance gets it\'s dry fast.Left coasters all sleeping now, guess we will hear soon enough.

Re Mott, it\'s disturbs me for ALL players in that there were rumors Closed Hatches scoped dirty after her last race. Mott insisted they found nothing after a complete work up. While Mott has always needed to grow a personality, don\'t think he would lie.Believe strongly that vet records for all horses should be available to the betting public.

[TreadHead]

Rain has started back up, several tweets indicating R1 and R3 likely to be taken off the turf, but no formal projection of turf course rating.

[yesthatwouldbeme]

It was sprinkling and raining last night, \"pouring\" would be an exaggeration especially if you live anywhere besides SoCal. It\'s about the 1st sustained rain we\'ve had all year, literally . I\'ll guestimate a 1/2\". I live 20 min from the track, tucked up against the San Gabriels.

Lets cash some tickets today!!

[miff]

How could it be a sprinkle if the track opened up \"good\"

[yesthatwouldbeme]

perhaps it sprinkled all night