What to make of Santa Anita Derby?

[Dana]

Racing\'s such a great game because it is so humbling! Seldom have I ever felt stronger about a race (on paper) and been more wrong about almost everything!

The only saving grace (if there is one) is that I actually didn\'t bet the race because I was alive in the glorious Magna Pick Five. The only problem is the horse I was alive with, and very felt confidently about, St. Averil, disappeared after about a quarter mile. Maybe he really did run as big a number as I thought he did in his previous race, and it knocked him into oblivion -- he even looked flat in the post parade. The real puzzler was how bad Wimbledon ran -- he was fried by the far turn, and I\'m not sure he\'s really any good.

For you Rock Hard Ten fans, I\'ll say he\'s the real deal now. Too bad he might not make it into the Derby on earnings, but if he misses the derby it might be a blessing in disguise in terms of all the great races later on in the year.

What to make of Castledale? So Jeff Mullins said afterwards, his horse was clearly and always better on dirt (I missed that for sure, and I don\'t miss many Mullins\' winners, believe me). I wish I looked a bit closer at his pattern (on t-graphs anyway) because it wasn\'t that bad -- he\'s a durable little horse for sure and apparently he\'s got some heart!

I wonder what his odds will be in the derby? Knowing how Mullins horses usually pair up -- if the number was fast enough in the Santa Anita Derby, he might be a legit threat on May 1st. So how fast was the race???

The best thing about all this confusion and wide open nature of the derby is we\'ll get some serious value in the derby -- can you all imagine what the super will pay? So, let\'s see how much does it cost to wheel a horse in the superfecta in a 20 horse field?
Oh, right, forgot I have to pick the winner first before I can wheel him.

Did anyone cash in that race? Who the hell used Castledale in the pick 5? At least a few people right? I thought there\'d be a carry-over for sure. Any thoughts???

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I think you said it all.

However, I don\'t think that St. Averil or Wimbledon are 1:51 plus horses in that field. They didn\'t fire. Quinton may be better than both of them, but he\'s not that much better. The problem is the top two went South and the issue is can they be 100% on Derby day? I think thats very much in doubt.

[Mall]

Together, the preps have left me in the same state I was in when I read, & reread, the following notice from(not in) the Key Reporter:

\"Librarians, archivists, and others who save The Key Reporter will note that starting with this issue--Number 1--the newsletter is numbered in accordance with the January-December calendar cycle. The first issue in a sequence of four will be published in January. The previous sequence followed the academic calendar, with the Number 1 issue appearing in the fall.

The Fall 2003 edition was wrongly identified as Number 3; it was Number 4. In past years the Summer issue was published in July and the fall issue in November. In order to report promptly on the 40th Triennial Council last August, there was no Summer edition, and the Fall Key Reporter was mailed in September.\"

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Even a good librarian has to reread those things. What are you telling us, you\'re a librarian?   lol

Too funny

I\'m not confused but Eurosilver was the Zito horse that I thought was his zinger and he caved so readily on the Derby that I\'m confused. I don\'t know what that means. Either hes significantly sick or I was very mistaken or perhaps both. In any event its  perplexing. I still have a couple others that I\'m waiting to evaluate one of which has been my number two prospect, so we\'ll see. All the ups and downs other than the Eurosilver enigma haven\'t really bothered me.



Post Edited (04-06-04 22:45)

[Kimmel Factor]

I think you can throw Wimbletons last race totally out. Looked like Hansels Derby to me and you saw what happened in the Preakness next race out. He crushed the field.

Bob has Consecrate and Preachin wound tight and ready to go this weekend and it would be no surprise if they both won. If you look at all three of them together he very easily could run One-Two-Three Derby Day.

I know I\'m pulling for him.

[Michael D.]

\"he very easily could run one-two-three derby day\"?  do you realize what you just typed in? ....... do you know what the odds of a single trainer running one-two-three in the derby are? and you think it could be easy? ...... and why would you just toss wimbledon\'s last race? the horse has a dosage of 5.0, tried 9f for the first time, and pulled a major fade job. i guess it\'s not out of the question that he could bounce back and run well in the derby, but isn\'t there just a little cause for concern?

[Kimmel Factor]

Michael D wrote:

\"do you realize what you just typed in? .......\"

\"isn\'t there just a little cause for concern?\"

Not in the least Michael D.

The reason is quite simple its Baffert.

Like the song in the Spy Who Loved Me...Nobody Does it Better.

[Michael D.]

ok, i admire the bold call. baffert has proven my methods of handicapping wrong on at least a few occasions. good luck.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I\'d like to see Baffert run 1-2-3 in the Derby for one reason...to read the fallout over the feat from Silver Charm.

lol

CtC

[Michael D.]

you are going to have to start tossing a lot of races to think baffert will be a factor in this year\'s derby. the guy should stay home, and wind em up for the summer.