Tonalist - Travers Preview

[Silver Charm]

Just don\'t see anything in that work pattern that indicates he is having the screws to put to him to tighten him up for tomorrow. I believe it was reported he had been turned out after the Belmont. Makes sense then he was a little short in last but now what? Extremely well bred horse could be any kind as he develops and matures and conditioner is not a stiff work guy like others are. Soooo.....

Meanwhile Jerkins has put blinkers on his horse since Belmont, emphasized more early speed, put 2 solid works in him and a little blowout yesterday. Yes yesterday!!!

Anything close to a Haskel effort and Bayern could be gone again. Pinned his ears and got to business on the far turn at Monmouth that day and was too much for that field. Nobody in here who can seriously go with him early. Field is loaded with closers. If Wicked Strong is all in to win the Jerkins blowout was a slight tip of his hand.....

[jp702006]

If wicked thinks he is going to press Bayern, it may set it up nicely for one of the closers. Anyone who tries to go with him gets fried, so that puts the trainers/jocks in a tough spot. Just my humble opinion. I will be using Bayern, tonalist, v e day and kid cruz in my pick 4. Good luck to all tomorrow.

[Ollie]

Just a point to share, because there is a common thread. When Afleet Express won the Travers in 2010, a lot of people had earlier, questioned his ability after a 3 month layoff, and the Beyer he was initially given for his 7F race on May 22, 2010. He ran approximately 3 seconds faster than anything else running a similar distance, and he was given, I believe, a of 115. But, a lot of individuals questioned how a Beyer of 115 could be given out to a horse, who had never run a race with a Beyer higher than (I believe, but I may not be absolutely exact, but definitely in close vicinity) 90. So, people must have listened, because a week later Afleet\'s initial Beyer of 115 got reduced, to 108, and a week after that, down to 106.
    I happen to believe Afleet\'s 122 Beyer number was probably the most accurate number of his performance that day. But, jump-up performances are normally questioned as to their accuracy. But, I also found rapid changes in a horse\'s behavior/demeanor may be difficult/hard to understand/accept, because they can happen so suddenly. Some slight \"adjustment\" could be all that is necessary (I know some may be thinking along the lines of illicit things, that could make that kind of difference. And, yes, I recognize illicit things can cause dramatic reversals in horses), but, I am referring specifically to those that are legal and accepted.
    Just as with the demonstrated, dramatic improvement by Afleet Express, the blinker change for Wicked was something that I was screaming for since last year, and has me firmly believing that \"his game\" will be elevated to another level, as the former horse\'s was. I will be very disappointed if it isn\'t.

[Tavasco]

The Aussie racing is over for the night. Not much discussion about the Travers Stakes, I guess because so many of the regulars are waiting for Saturday at the track seminar, gathering, pow wow as is appropriate. For me, writing clears my mind and the Travers has been on my mind for a while now. Here goes.

If there was one essential question which needed to be answered in handicapping the Travers what would it be?

Certainly the top three favorites have speed figures (@1+1/8) good enough to win. Note - the ability to win G1 @ 1+1/2 is not the same as doing the same @ 1+1/4. None have won or run competitively at the race distance.

The horses condition is, of course, fundamental. Again the three favorites come in with the same four week spacing. Top trainers and all subject to bouncing from previous big efforts.

Many will fall back on the angle, a sole speed horse is one of the most likely winners in racing. Depending on the start, the consensus is Bayern has a pace edge. I\'ll add that Albano & Wildcat Red are top competition  vs the Jim Dandy bunch.

As Ollie points out Wicked Strong looks a new and improved horse but the Jim Dandy fractions do not impress? If this new & improved version can duel or press Bayern without losing his closing punch, he probably wins.

Tonalist is also a little mysterious. His Belmont win was noteworthy. That was a tough race! I see where Medal Counts fine effort at the Big Sandy was followed by a last place finish in the Haskel. I\'m convinced Tonalist can compete @ 1+1/4 but can he catch those likely to be in front of him early if he runs his race?

Mr. Speaker is a wildcard and has to be given a chance to win and exacta @ ml 10/1. We all know the story, he\'s bred to win this race. But because he is winning on turf what\'s not broken does not need fixing. That one fail @ GP (when he beat both Wicked Strong & Coup De Grace) against Cairo Prince (at his best) doesn\'t seem enough of a reason to toss him. Strategy #2.

The good news is the race has a history (at least recently) of some pricey contenders getting into the verticals. So my conclusion is the key question is how do I make money on this race?

Answer - Trifecta using the three favorites in the top two positions and Mr. Speaker, Charge Now, Viva Majorca or your favorite(s) in 3rd. Strategy #1. Or Super Perfecta with long shots in 4th under the three favorites Chalk Strategy variation #1a.

Just doesn\'t seem a race which will produce a surprise winner. But very possibly a STAR or a classic duel. Good Luck All.