Nobody asked me but...

[TGJB]

So, I took some futures on Friday, not in the pools--

Fire Slam @ 250-1 (small)
Judiths Wild Rush @ 500-1 (smaller, he would have to win the Bay Shore just for starters)
Pollard\'s Vision @ 150-1 (heh-heh)
Pro Prado @100-1 (may or may not be an overlay, considering the parlay)
Purge @75 and 100-1 (definite overlay)

Took The Cliff\'s Edge early on @ 28-1, Fire Slam @ about 60. Took a long look at Minister Eric and the field in this pool, but didn\'t get enough price and decided to wait it out.

 Earnings are going to be an even bigger deal than usual this time-- looks like it will take around 200k to get in, meaning Rock Hard Ten has no shot (how important was that DQ?), Smarty Jones and the others at Oaklawn have to finish at least second to get in-- very complicated.

Very interesting Derby. A lot of interesting horses will be a price on race day, and you get to see who gets in and the draw, so there wasn\'t good enough reason to jump unless you got a BIG price.

[derby1592]

I agree that the value horses seemed to be in the field in the future pool but there was no value since they were all grouped together.

If I had been in Vegas, I would have played Purge and Pro Prado.

Good luck.

Should be a wide-open derby with some real live longshots particularly if Smarty wins the Ark Derby.

Chris

[phil45]

Pedigree wise, can Purge get the 1&1/4?

If he can, he\'s really live for sure.

[OPM]

I think Lion Heart is going to be a serious horse(already is I guess).  The big question is can he get 1 1/4 on the first Saturday of May with a jock who loves to go wide but you are going to get around 6-1 on him on Derby Day when he wins the Blue Grass.

[BitPlayer]

Pollard\'s Vision at 150/1 was a great play.

It seems to me there had to be value somewhere in the 3rd Derby futures pool.  The money bet on Rock Hard Ten and a couple of the longshots was basically a gift.  They won\'t have enough earnings to make the field.

I landed on Master David (and was not excited when he dropped from 14/1 to 12/1 late).  My guess is that he may run better away from Santa Anita.  I also like Eddington, but had played him in pool 2.

The earnings issue makes one wonder why more trainers aren\'t heading to Hot Springs, where the purse is $1M (v. $750k for the other preps that day) and the competition seems less deep.

Is McLaughlin really sending Mustanfar to the Blue Grass?  The speed/rail bias seems like it would play against him, and he probably needs 2d place money to make the Derby field.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Good insight on the earnings requirement. You\'re right Smarty better not throw a clunker in the next. I spose if he does the Derby is out anyway.

Pollard is hard not to like on that race. Its gonna be interesting but we got a few more to weigh yet. 150-1, a winning effort with no racing between now and the big day looks like u made a good wager there. Youre still alive on the first two. But your spreading the wealth around a la the Lenny\'s. Seven equal bets on seven different horses changes a 150-1 return into 21-1. I know...lol

CtC

[TGJB]

I did dutch it to get a little better than that, but you are right that I made the calculation as to what I would take on the group of them. I thought that was enough, and would have taken the field at 10-1. You could make a case that it was worth the 6-1, given that you will get the SA and Ill Derby winners and probably a few others, but I decided I had enough of the ones I wanted.

I don\'t think people work out exactly is involved in these futures-- there is a parlay involved, and the further out you get the more races (and other factors, including earnings and eventual post) are involved. Take Pro Prado, just from here-- first he has to earn enough (win or second at Oaklawn), then they have to decide to go, then he has to win. If he wins (maybe 5-1 aginst?) they will presumably go, but what is his chance of winning the Derby? If they run second (35%?), they might get in, but will they go? If they run worse than second, you\'re out.

So I decided 100-1, which sounds like a lot, was a little plus equity. But not a lot.

[bdhsheets]

The original post was stolen from the Thoroughbred Times (copied to Bloodhorse, not given credit). I copied the earnings lists and added commentary. Too much work to retype it all, lol.

>Graded stakes earnings through
>April 5:
>
>1. Halfbridled (f) $870,000::: won\'t run in Derby
>
>2. Action This Day $780,000
>
>3. Friends Lake $611,000
>
>4. Castledale (Ire) $510,000
>
>5. Limehouse $403,405 I believe Pletcher is smart enuff to pass 10f.
>
>6. Madcap Escapade (f):: Looney toon owners trying to ruin a nice filly
>$400,000
>
>7. Read The Footnotes $397,860
>
>8. Wimbledon $375,000
>
>9. Pollard's Vision $366,000
>
>10. Imperialism $363,000
>
>11 Minister Eric $350,000
>
>12. The Cliff's Edge $328,258
>
>13. Birdstone $327,000::; a mediocre effort this weekend and he\'s watching from his stall
>
>14. Lion Heart $325,600
>
>15. Sinister G $300,000::: likely cannon fodder 5/1, hope owners wake up in time
>
>16. Value Plus $250,000
>
>17. St Averil $215,200:: sincerely believe he\'ll be in LA on 5/1
>
>18. Tiger Hunt $165,500::: geeze, the freakin horse hasn\'t raced all year, riiight!
>
>19. Preachinatthebar $159,000
>
>20. Saratoga County $156,500
>
>21. Borrego $120,000
>
>22. Kitten's Joy $120,000:: already committed to turf stks 5/1
>
>23. Capitano $115,000:: no inkling he\'s going at all
>
>24. Kilgowan $110,000:: come on, after that sparkling IL Derby effort sssuurre
>
>25. Tricky Taboo $100,000:: the horse will be a nice lead pony some day
>
>26. Song of the Sword $100,000
>
>27. Hosco $ 98,860::: sprinter won\'t go, no way
>
>28. Consecrate $ 98,000
>
>29. Mr. Jester $ 92,000
>
>30. Rock Hard Ten $ 90,000:: hoping trainer does the right thing and passes
>
>31. Pomeroy $ 80,000
>
>32. Tapit $ 80,000
>
>33. Fire Slam $ 78,000:: the horse with a flat tire, okay
>
>34. Skipaslew $ 70,000:: another \"solid\" IL Derby clunker o.u.t.
>
>35. Bwana Charlie $ 67,890::: Muuuuuuuuuhahahahahahaaaah!!!
>
>
Remove the obvious and you only need around 100k to shlepp in.



Post Edited (04-05-04 21:33)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\">25. Tricky Taboo $100,000:: the horse will be a nice lead pony some day\" LMAO

lol

But he\'s number 25 on the list and may get to go if he wants to. Though, my hunch is when the last of the big graded stakes are over by next weekend, he\'s not gonna be in a position to go.  

The Arkansas derby is probably gonna qualify a horse or two not currently on the list. Speaking of which, I\'m really not sure what TGJB sees in Pro Prado, I\'m gonna have to scrutinize the charts for the Rebel I guess.

CtC

[bdhsheets]

CtC:

Pro Prado paired up 1.0\'s in his last two