One last shot

[Toga]

I first want to thank everyone for all the great thoughts and information on this years triple crown run. After just missing a lifetime score in the Derby, I tossed angry money at the Preakness trying to beat CC again. (When I thought he would jog). To my surprise, he had to pop the clutch and go into 5th gear to get the W. So... now that the sting of the loss is gone, I will share my thoughts and questions I have yet to answer, about how I take on this historic race from a betting perspective.

It sounds like CC could not be doing ANY better going into this race (put on weight, training like a beast, love the track, yadda yadda yadda). All signs point toward this horse being in the lead at the 1/8 pole with history on the line. It is going to take a horse that is fully cranked and whose grand pappy loves the distance to get the W. While I would LOVE to toss CC out with the $$ implications of him folding, I can\'t imagine this horse tanking out of 2nd or 3rd. So that would leave me trying to beat him for the win, horizontals, or possible the exacta? If I am going to get crazy.

For me, I would love to see SI signed on here (even though I am reading on the board that it seems unlikely). Not because I would have a single dollar on him, but because I would feel good about CC having to work a little in the first 1/2 of the race. Also with Samraat putting some pressure on CC from his flank, that might step my wagers up against CC in this race.

So whose going to be my birdstone? Wicked strong is hardly going to be a birdstone do to the fact that many like this horses chances in here. I am mixed about his chances. If I am a sheet player, and I am, he is on a classic 0-2-x. A horse that made a big jump up in a short time and now is sitting on his X. It kinda ticks me off because I keep wanting to sign on with this horse, especially going long and he has been working so good I still might take a shot. Kid Cruz? I drank the cool aid for the preakness, think I will wait until this one drops down a bit. Medal Count, those on the board are having me take a closer look at this horse. I was luke warm on him for the derby, that big jump up made me a little skeptical. Think he is interesting. Commanding the Curve, I liked this horse in the Derby, like his patten here and think he is a player if CC starts to wobble in the final 1/16. Not thrilled at the price I am likely to get now that the cat is out of the bag to the general public. Tonalist, not really sure about this horse, was waiting until the TG sheets come out to take a look. ROC, not convinced he can take out CC. Think he had his chance in the preakness and ran his eyeballs out only to fall short. Not sure about the others yet. I would love to hear all of your final thoughts on this group. This figures to be a tremendous race and I am really looking forward to taking one last shot at beating CC. But I will punch a $2 win ticket and buy the program to frame it in the event I strike out. Good Luck

[Rick B.]

Toga Wrote:
------------------------------------
> So whose going to be my birdstone?

This was all I could read from your
post before blood started spurting
from my eyes.

Brevity, dude. Pls.

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Toga Wrote:
> ------------------------------------
> > So whose going to be my birdstone?
>
> This was all I could read from your
> post before blood started spurting
> from my eyes.
>
> Brevity, dude. Pls.

Why bust his balls?

I\'ve seen longer posts than this one analyzing a race.

[Rick B.]

P-Dub Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Why bust his balls?
>
> I\'ve seen longer posts than this one analyzing a
> race.

Don\'t make it about me. If you can read and follow
the guy\'s post, go ahead and reply.

I can\'t read the post, and I\'m not the only guy here
that sees a giant run-on sentence and says, \"Next!\".

[Toga]

My apology. I can appreciate your request. It was a late and a rambled a bit. I will keep this brief.

1) How do you view WS? It looks like a 0-2-x to me but he is training great.

2) How do you view Chrome? I see him leading this group with 1/8-1/16 to go. My only question is, will he have enough legs to fend off the 3 or 4 in here that seem to benefit from distance and rest. Given the likely odds, I am once again going to play this scenario.

3) What horses do you view as WIN candidates? I am looking at Curve and WS (but could almost toss WS based on question 1). The other derby horses I do not currently view as win candidates. I have not yet taken a close look at the new comers.

Thanks

[Michael D.]

Toga,

Excellent post to get the week started.

I\'ll have more later, but quickly on WS. The toughest call in the race for me. At times I see his sire Hard Spun and think 12f is too long. 13.5 final 1/8 in the Derby.

One the other hand, WS did have a difficult trip on Derby day - wide and forced to weave through traffic. And if you watch his Wood, the guy was ridden for about a half mile and never really slowed down (while putting up a solid figure). Watching that race I see more Charismatic and With Approval and less Hard Spun. And you absolutely have to love the way the colt is coming into the race, especially since they\'ve had their eye on the mile and a half for 5 weeks now while others have been forced to focus on other trips.

[miff]

WS can still be a little tough to handle, has had a couple of minor tantrums over the past few weeks.Most days fine a couple not. Could be a consideration given the massive crowd activity on Sat.Just another possible variable.

Agree with Mike D\'s assessment of any read of pattern for horses coming out of roughly run derby, too many trips in there.

WS physically impressive along with Tonalist, both were going very well last week. Tonalist training in web bars and will reportedly not race with them.

CC has no visual knocks as of last week from any horsemen that are constantly eyeballing him.

[FrankD.]

Toga,

Per Julian who is credited with discovering the 0-2-X pattern all the 3 races must be within 42 days; your stretching to 63 from Wood to Belmont. Michael D.\'s comment about discounting trips due to so many of them in the Derby  and especially from the 20 post makes this one not sitting on the X for me.

The real X factor with WS is his head and leaving his race in the paddock or the warm up.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[P-Dub]

Rick B. Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> P-Dub Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Why bust his balls?
> >
> > I\'ve seen longer posts than this one analyzing
> a
> > race.
>
> Don\'t make it about me. If you can read and
> follow
> the guy\'s post, go ahead and reply.
>
> I can\'t read the post, and I\'m not the only guy
> here
> that sees a giant run-on sentence and says,
> \"Next!\".


Rick,

If you\'re the one complaining, it is about you.

You\'re not the only guy here, but you\'re the only one complaining.

You could have just ignored the \"giant run-on sentence\" and not insulted the guy.

I was able to follow it, and when I get the sheets for the race may respond.

Maybe you\'re having a Blackhawks hangover.

[Michael D.]

Toga Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> My apology. I can appreciate your request. It was
> a late and a rambled a bit. I will keep this
> brief.
>
> 1) How do you view WS? It looks like a 0-2-x to me
> but he is training great.


Summer Bird had that same big jump in his Derby prep, then backed up a few points in the Derby with a bad trip. came back to inhale the field in the Belmont. both have strong dam side pedigrees. Belmont winner Birdstone v Hard Spun on top though.

I could never toss WS on pattern, not the way he looks now. distance is the issue.


> 2) How do you view Chrome? I see him leading this
> group with 1/8-1/16 to go. My only question is,
> will he have enough legs to fend off the 3 or 4 in
> here that seem to benefit from distance and rest.
> Given the likely odds, I am once again going to
> play this scenario.
>
> 3) What horses do you view as WIN candidates? I am
> looking at Curve and WS (but could almost toss WS
> based on question 1). The other derby horses I do
> not currently view as win candidates. I have not
> yet taken a close look at the new comers.
>
> Thanks

[TGJB]

All 0-2-X\'s are not created equal, a point I made in the Oaks analysis. Young horses and 5yos are two different ballgames.

[Toga]

Thanks for your input Frank, this is very helpful. I was leaning toward this thought process myself, I did not know about the 42 days race span for the 0-2-x. I did however wonder how the trip in the derby impacted the possibility of it not being a true pattern.

Now I just have to decide whether this horse can handle the crowd. Thanks again. good luck.

[mjellish]

He didnt handle the crowd on derby day and still ran a nice race for the trip he had, all things considered.

[Bet Twice]

I seem to recall someone (JB?) mentioning that 0-2 was not a reliable predictor of x, but rather an 0-2-X was suggestive of getting back to a top, given appropriate rest.

[Beginner]

That\'s exactly what the 0-2-X Flash media suggests in the Introductory Materials...