thoughts on foreign horses?

[Michael D.]

Any thoughts out there on the foreign horses ??

Essence of Dubai is going to make one late run, and it\'s going to be wide. Tough call.

Johannesburg would have to be a superstar to win. Odds of him being a superstar are a lot higher than the odds you will get in the derby.

Castle Gandolfo..... Baily takes the call, even though Mott (and the sheets) still call Blue Burner a contender. I find that interesting. (Mr Prospector/Secretariat, Norther Dancer/Buckpasser lines seem perfect for a mile and a quarter on dirt). Possible contender

[Phil Mandl]

Big time! I will very likely place a sweet win bet on Essence as well as using both of O\'Brien\'s horses with Essence in exacta\'s and some tri wagers which I rarely place. Oh if there will be a Oaks derby double offered thnis year I\'ll use the 2 Godolphin filly\'s.  
I\'m praying they will all be overlooked.  
With Essence I have one question to be answered which won\'t be answered til a few minutes prior to the start and that is how he will handle the chaos during saddling and the post parade.  He\'s an extreamly high-strung animal and has always been a handful and despite running in front of 50,000 people twice already at Belmont and Nad Al Sheba thats nothing compared to derby day. I will re-think everything in a heartbeat but the Oaks/derby double if I don\'t like what I see in the paddock and warm-up.
Expect to hear reports from Churchill praising the way Essence looks, works and acts.  I also expect him to be closer to the pace than many people think because of his new jock and the 6 weeks from his last effort.
My confidence in the Coolmore horses is not as great as with Essence but I have more confidence in them than in any of the others.  One issue I do not have is conditioning/fitness/bottom or whatever you want to call it.  I have complete confidence in O\'Brien and his training methods and the whole operation over there at Ballaydoyle. I do have a distance issue with Johannasburg and a class issue with Castle however no other horse(s) with maybe the exception of Perfect Drift gets my adreniline flowing like the above 3.  
Geez, Johannasburg looses his first race back in 6 months-a roughly run race by a nose to a horse that raced competitivly against the likes of Lailani, Banks Hills and Terre a Terre last year and now he\'s a toss out for many people!  What kind of common sense handicapping is this! That filly that beat him is going to be a monster this year.
The general opinion of many, and I generally agree, for several months now has been that this crop is not all that special.  And in my opinion the preps have confirmed that opinion, and now it seems everyone has abandoned that opinion and is struggling to latch onto one or two horses and forgetting about what they used to think about this crop of 3 year olds.  The up side is this year should continue the trend of the derby offering exceptional value.

I don\'t know what JB\'s plans are but I\'m hoping there will be thoro-graph numbers for the Dubai efforts and for the race in England for Castle and the one in Ireland for Johhannasburg.

[fastspeed]

Philip,

always enjoy reading your opinion on foreign horses, but do not understand your \"roughly run\" comment re jo\'burg\'s last race.  The piece I saw (last 4 furlongs) had him in a perfect spot with nobody around him and actually having the run of the race.  The other horse maybe had trouble.  anything I didn\'t see at the start ?

[Michael D.]

I am not convinced on Essence of Dubai. Two decent sprints to start off last year, then a very average win in the Norfolk while coming home in 26 seconds. A deserving 33-1 in the Cup, and came home last in an even slower last quarter. This year he has a life and death battle to beat a horse called Firebreak, then beats Ibn Al Haitham by three lengths in the UAE Derby, the exact same margin he beat him by last year in the slow Norfolk. I am more than willing to give this nice looking $2.3 mio horse a shot, but I definitely need more evidence...... As for the other two, I will use one of them in my tri\'s, maybe both if decent money shows on the board.

[fastspeed]

Michael,

you make some good points on EOD - thanks.  ultimately we have to accept the fact that 20/1 shots will have some question marks over them, otherwise they wouldn\'t be that price.  sometimes they overcome it, sometimes they don\'t. I don\'t have the form in front of me so I don\'t know how fast they went early in the norfolk - it sure got a good enough final figure (TG and beyer).  he could well have bounced off that in the BC.

Not sure where you\'re gonna get more evidence between now and the derby though.

[Phil Mandl]

Your comments about EOD\'s races this year have merit and that\'s why I\'d love to have TG numbers for them-we\'ll see. I\'m drawing a line right thru EOD\'s BC race and considering it an effort to bad to be a true indication of how he will run in the derby.  To me the Norfolk was a better race than the final time indicates and I guess as fastspeed mentioned the Byer and TG number may be a better indication of the effort than the time.  Who was it that said \"its not how fast they run but how they run fast\".
He sure beat a nice horse in Roman Dancer in the Norfolk.  
As for the Gladness I did not see the race but what I read was that there was a steward\'s inquiry and apparantly the winner got the worst of whatever happened which may have made the race closer than if she got a clean trip. I\'m edging toward the opinion that both Castle and Johannasburg got just what they needed out of their races to run well next out.

[JimP]

I checked the Norfolk. The fractions were
23+4 47+4 1:11+1 1:37. A moderate pace according to the pace figures I have. EOD stalked the pace about 3 lengths back and then closed well along the inside. The way I calculate EOD\'s last quarter he closed in around 25 seconds (maybe a little less) not 26. Not outstanding, but not terrible either.

[fastspeed]

gladness - he still had the race won and somehow lost it to a horse that had trouble (and was giving him a lot of weight). it\'s easy to say but I doubt that last year\'s jo\'burg would have thrown that race away (I did see a few of his races last year).  maybe (in UK parlance) he hasn\'t \"trained on\".  that would certainly explain the apparent lack of confidence. believe me, with my UK background, I\'d love to see him win - I just can\'t convince myself right now.
maybe he\'s better on dirt....

[Phil Mandl]

I am looking for some valid reasons to toss Johannasburg and narrrow down my selections. The final odds will likely make my decision for me.  If Johannasburg is overbet-and I don\'t know at this early date what I will consider overbet-then he\'s a toss.  My fear is that\'s exactly what I did BC day and he beat me!  I realize Derby day is a very different situation so hopefully I will keep my wits about me and not let him having beaten me affect my final wagers.