The right general approach

[tommyG]

Thanks.  That is an interesting story.  I guess mathematically we can express your roots as a function of (opportunity + observation + questioning the status quo) times (a little common sense)--maybe (common sense) squared???

[mjellish]

Maybe I\'m not getting this.  But watch the replays of the earlier dirt races and the dirt races after the Derby.  Then watch the Derby replay.  Look at the dust blowing around the track during the Derby vs the others.  

Moisture content the same??

I don\'t need a \"hammer guy\" to tell me the moisture content was different.

[Boscar Obarra]

I\'m surprised this wasn\'t mentioned more (hiding in plain sight?), I watched the race a few times in HD and the dust was amazing. Not normal.

[mjellish]

Agreed.  That\'s why you have go off the colts in derby to make a figure.  To my eye Jerry is the only one who got it right out of the big three, and I\'m saying that for brownie points.  On TG you could make an argument to make the race a point slower, but i think a pair is reasonable.  

Now imagine the differences in form cycle appearances between rags and tg moving forward for these colts rest of the year given the way rags did the race.

[TGJB]

MJ-- First of all yeah, not only for handicapping races using Jake\'s Derby figures, but for making figures using them. People who don\'t make figures don\'t understand it but this truly is an area of garbage in, garbage out. They\'re screwed.

As I mentioned here before, I actually gave some thought to making the race one point better, not worse. If it had been at 1 1/8th and less horses had trouble I might well have, and it would have resulted in a very high percentage of tops for a Derby. I think it\'s about 80-90% that it\'s right where it is.

One more minor point-- I happened to catch a replay of the race today on NYRA, and they were focusing on Borel\'s ride on ROC. Usually we don\'t pay attention to anything that happens on straightaways re ground loss because if you look at the math it\'s insignificant, but that left turn he made to get to the rail was so severe you actually could credit the horse with a little better figure. As a practical matter it doesn\'t really affect the way you handicap him going forward regardless.

[mjellish]

Just noticed my post said and I\'m saying that for brownie points.  Should have said not saying that for brownie points.  That\'s what I get for trying to post from my phone.  

Re: ROC, trainer had a big problem with the way Borel rode him.  Dunno why he put Borel on the mount.  Only one way that guy is going to ride that colt from the 19 post.  Same ride he gave Dennis of Cork from the 16 post 6 years ago.  I would give him more credit for the trouble that ensued than additional ground loss for the left turn, but it\'s splitting hairs either way.

I\'m torn on the draw for Preakness.  Part of me wants to see Chrome draw the 1 or 2 post- in which case I will bet against him (I still don\'t think he will run his race if he gets anything other than an outside stalking or front running trip).  And part of me wants to see him draw outside and win the thing, in which case I will pass the race and wait for the Belmont.  Guess I figure either way I win as long as if he wins the Preakness he makes to the Belmont.

[richiebee]

mjellish Wrote:
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> Just noticed my post said and I\'m saying that for
> brownie points.  Should have said not saying that
> for brownie points.  That\'s what I get for trying
> to post from my phone.  

\"Brownie points\" a rather droll double entendre, intentional or not.

[mjellish]

Yup Richie.  I\'ll leave the wit and writing to you.

[richiebee]

mjellish Wrote:
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> Yup Richie.  I\'ll leave the wit and writing to
> you.


You think I\'m funny? What makes me funny? Funny how? How the f--k am I funny?

[mjellish]

You really are a funny guy.

But...

Bing, what are you still doing here?

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> mjellish Wrote:
> --------------------------------------------------
> -----
> > Yup Richie.  I\'ll leave the wit and writing to
> > you.
>
>
> You think I\'m funny? What makes me funny? Funny
> how? How the f--k am I funny?


Like a clown. Please don\'t aim at my foot.

[TGJB]

Do you remember who played the kid who got shot?

Horseplayer, friend of mine.

[FrankD.]

Michael Imperio, Christopher on the Soprano\'s.

[Holybull1]

FrankD. Wrote:
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> Michael Imperio, Christopher on the Soprano\'s.


Also a recent \"Chopped\" champion.  The guy can cook.

[FrankD.]

Holybull,

He\'s Italian we all can cook !