question for TGJB and others

[Michael D.]

steve haskin says : \"TCE could have easily won the Fla Derby with a clear outside trip.\" ........ haskin is saying that when sellers decided to take the inside route, despite the fact that the trip cost his mount a lot of momentum, he made a bad decision. we had this discussion here last  year, and the general consensus was that most horses can make up for lost momentum during a race if they get clear run for the last 1/4 mile or so, so saving ground is almost always the best way to go. does everybody here still believe that? i still hold the opinion that if saving ground costs a stalker type momentun during a race, the horse will often not have enough quickness to make up the difference in the final quarter of a race. that is, running a bit wide often helps a horse, if the only other option is rating in behind other horses. thoughts out there? sometimes the jock has no choice (sellers had an impossible task in the Tam race). on saturday, however, i think sellers might have won the race if he put TCE into a quicker stride early, even if it meant running a bit wide . tough subject, but a very interesting one.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Judging by a replay that doesn\'t show precisely when or how Sellers moved his horse for the inside, what you can see is TCE behind Friends Lake, but to a great extent catching him with the ground saved by the inside move without any significant looking loss of momentum.

Its hard to say that Sellers used his whip in the stretch. If he did, the replay available is not clear on whip use. (I looked again I think he did use the whip. Computer replays are grainy) Its altogether possible that the bump with Tapit in the stretch jarred the whip loose, either that or TCE may be as Horatio Luro said of Northern Dancer:

\"He is not a \"stick horse\" if you whip him he will sulk.\"

TCE showed something in that race. He showed nimbleness. Actually he showed a great degree of nimbleness. So much in fact that when Sellers asked him to move outside of Friends Lake at the very end of the race that he changed leads in the last two strides effortlessly, like the old reliable G.M. transmissions that shifted gears without the least bit of hesitation. That same nimbleness existed in the inside move. It appeared the horse hardly broke stride and that his ears stayed flat as he pressed on. If Sellers can be faulted for that ride, the fault might come for bumping Tapit, finding reason to fault him for taking the inside route is pretty hard from the perspective of the race replay available, unless Haskin has a different film that shows more momentum loss.

On the basis of the available replay, one might guess that Mr. Haskin had a significant wager on TCE and that John Chance probably wished TCE had taken the \"non momentum loss\" \"Haskin Route\". If he had it appears Mr. Chance would have been in pizza for the rest of his life.

CtC

On another point, nothing beats a trip to the track. I don\'t like to travel much, but when you are there to see the horses and take in the atmosphere its the greatest kick. Especially at a historic facility on a big day. When you live outside of Chicago the winter weather makes attendance less fun and thats especially so on claiming cards. So the winters for a weather dissuaded Northerner involve handicapping Gulfstream for the most part. Although  Calder is a favorite also. However, they\'d both be traded in a New York Minute for Hialeah, but thats wishing.

These days however, you don\'t even have to go OTB anymore. Now, you can sit in the comfort of your home and wager from your computer. Many (like CtC) are computer dummies, but if you stick to it you can eventually pick up the things that you need to make wagering by puter the very best bets you can make. At the touch of a button you can refer to previous charts, You can scrutinze pedigree and progeny, You can view past races at some tracks when you see a trouble line, (The day will come when you will be able to pull any race from a meet and view it via puter as I use to do with Calders Viewing Station.) You can save the charts and forms from the various days and create folders by track, year and date. All you need is a decent sized hard drive and  digital data doesn\'t take much space. I use to save Racing Forms and the Racing Times. I still have the first and last issue of the latter. But referring to them was tedious. Now I do it in mere seconds.

Nothing beats the comraderie of the Track on a good card however and one has to be careful one doesn\'t turn into a computer geek. But information is the essence of winning. It why T-graph exists and when I am pulled out of my element I feel like I\'ve made myself an easy mark for the sharpos. I much prefer the track hotdogs and though hotdogs are within my cooking ability I really don\'t like to cook. But, you can grab a cup of coffee anytime you want or a non 7.00 beer if you\'ve won. In fact you can buy the best beer out there (Samuel Smith\'s Oatmeal Stout), stock your fridge for 3.50 a pint and each time you reach for one save yourself 12.00 dollars. (Its the best rebate of all) But seriously, its really not about being cheap. Its about being convenient. And the best thing is,  as Alzheimers sets in, you can go to the john and not forget where you\'re seat is at.





Post Edited (03-18-04 07:31)

[minnow]

Been reading this board for a while and really appreciate all the wisdom.
Not a big player myself. My username says it all.
Just had to agree with your comments, CtC, on Hialeah.
I truly miss that uniquely beautiful track.
Gulfstream and Crc plants are nice but, for me, Hialeah was a few acres of heaven right down here on earth!

-minnow

[jbelfior]

Gentlemen:

I\'m sure Nick Zito did not fully crank TCE for the FL DERBY. However, he\'d be wise to get Sellers off of this one as soon as possible.

I wouldn\'t trust Sellers on a merry-go-round.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[BitPlayer]

In addition to not being fully cranked up, I wonder whether TCE may have been intentionally kept inside to give him experience running inside and behind horses.  I also would not be surprised if Read The Footnotes was intentionally kept inside, to see if he would run as well inside horses as he did outside in the Fountain of Youth.

Given that no dominating favorite has emerged, a full gate seems likely in the Derby, and trip may well determine the winner (as it almost certainly did last year).  The jockeys have to know how aggressive they can be in splitting horses, staying inside or cutting the corner.

I\'ve read some comments from Mark Hennig that one reason he chose to run Eddington in the Gotham is so that Eddington will experience a different kind of trip (further off the pace) than he\'s been getting.

On the topic of Derby jockeys, do we think that Javier Castellano will still be aboard if Eurosilver runs in the Derby as the  favorite?