Pair-up and off race: FARNUM ALLEY...

[JohnTChance]

The Florida Derby changed a lot when Frankel\'s MASTER DAVID dropped
out of the race. Was it to be his coronation? Like Frankel\'s EMPIRE MAKER
in last year\'s event? We\'ll never know. In any case, his defection made the
race an interesting bet. Here\'s my sad story.

I\'m an enthusiast in the explosive potential of the ThoroGraph pattern
consisting of a \"pair-up\" followed by an \"off\" race, especially in young,
developing horses. Among the many subtle variations of this pattern,
there was trainer Anthony Reinstedler\'s entry in the Florida Derby,
FARNUM ALLEY, a Distorted Humor colt who went off at 59-1.

I thought FA\'s 17... 8... 8... 10... was, to an extent, explosive. I didn\'t think
he\'d move forward enough to win or even be second. So, at his huge
odds, fueled even further by my dislike of the even-money favorite, my
play was to selectively back-key him in 3rd in trifectas, and in 4th in
superfectas. To my delight, FARNUM ALLEY surely delivered the markedly
improved performance I hoped he\'d deliver. [A 5-ish?] But to my dismay and
frustration, he missed finishing 4th by an eyelash to the tiring even-money
favorite, READ THE FOOTNOTES. Had FARNUM ALLEY another two inches
of oomph in him, my $1 superfecta would\'ve been worth 10k or so. More?
In any case, like Ralph Kramden used to say on the Honeymooners,
I would\'ve been in pizza for the rest of my life. A tough beat.

JohnTChance

[TGJB]

Sure sign of losing too many photos-- quoting Ralph Kramden.

I don\'t know if this makes you feel better or worse, but your horse was the only one in the race to run a new top. The winner came back to his, as you guessed.

On the unrelated subject of finding the Derby winner, there is a line usually applied during the first round of major golf tournaments: you can\'t win the tournament today, but you can lose it. It\'s possible to eliminate a lot of horses based on running too fast too early, or having to develop too much from a 2 year old top, but you can\'t even start finding the right ones until about now.  

What I find interesting is that several trainers (especially Zito) look like they are trying to \"manufacture\" patterns by adjusting spacing and how tight they have the horses cranked. This is something I\'ve done for years using sheets, and it\'s interesting to watch others do it.

[jbelfior]

John T---

Terrific analysis. You were unlucky, however keep pluggin\'....your turn will come.


Good Luck,
Joe B.