Florida Derby Day Beyers

[BitPlayer]

The DRF website lists the winning Beyer in the Florida Derby as a 92.

http://www.drf.com/tc/trail/2004/preps.html

Wynn Dot Comma (and presumably Eurosilver) earned a 96.

It will be interesting to see how figures from other makers compare as they become available.



Post Edited (03-15-04 16:26)

[jbelfior]

BitPlayer---

I\'m not suprised. The race fell apart which is why FRIENDS LAKE won it. No matter... the people who bet on him got to cash a big ticket and the owners have themselves a winner of a million dollar race.

That\'s what makes this such a great game.

Do we all agree that it is unlikely the KY Derby winner ran in the Fla. Derby?

Perhaps he ran in the Tampa Derby and I\'m not talking about the winner.




Good Luck,
Joe B.

[BitPlayer]

Joe B. -

I knew the race had fallen apart, but I was thinking mid- to high-90s.

As for the Derby winner not being in the race, I\'m inclined to agree, but there are obviously dissenters.  The Cliff\'s Edge was bet down from 22/1 to 16/1 on Sunday in the Derby futures pool.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I still think RTF has a shot. I understand they are gonna go Wood. If he were my horse, I\'d go Lexington take the extra week, hit on less formidable competition, take advantage of the Keeneland surface and try to slide into the Derby with the horse feeling good about a win under his belt. There would be value in betting him Derby too because with the unproven form at 9 marks many would let him go. He may not want 10 marks but we didn\'t see him on Fla. Derby day.

On another note, I read how a new jockey is tearing up Turfway. Won seven races the other day.\"Bejarano\" is his name. Does anyone know what happened to that bug phenom Kris Prather? Is she still riding? I remember betting against her when she lost the bug and thought she could ride with jocks at Oaklawn. I don\'t think she won a race. Anyone know where she is?

Found this story which is significant for a couple of reasons, one of which is the variants for recent Gulfstream Races:

Trainers unhappy about dry track

Todd Pletcher won four races here on Saturday and watched Value Plus finish a good second in the Florida Derby. But, that doesn\'t mean the meet\'s leading trainer was pleased with everything.

Pletcher was miffed with how loose and cuppy the main track was for the Florida Derby. The final time of 1:51.38 equaled the fifth slowest in the 53-year history of the race.

\"I was delighted with everything with the exception of the fact I think the track should have been tightened up,\" Pletcher said. \"I complained earlier in the day that when it\'s windy like this, you\'ve got to put a little more water on the track. I hate to see horses like this go in 1:51; they shouldn\'t. It\'s just too cuppy.

\"Everyone will look at 1:51 and say it\'s a slow time,\" Pletcher added. \"People need to look at the track before they decide that. It was too dry.\"

John Kimmel, trainer of Florida Derby winner Friends Lake, concurred with Pletcher\'s assessment.

\"The track was all dried out,\" Kimmel said. \"It was not in pristine shape before the race.\"

There was a 74-minute break between dirt races on Saturday. A turf race was run prior to the Florida Derby. Dennis Testa, director of operations for Gulfstream, maintained that the track had sufficient moisture in it.

\"It was dry on the top but had plenty of moisture on the bottom,\" Testa said. \"The race before it, and the race after that, the times were good. That particular race had a slow pace.\"

Unquote

I believe Testa is correct. Suave\'s race just before the Florida Derby was faster  and Newfoundland\'s race at the end of the card was run in good final time, albeit on soft  fractions. To me, Testa sounds credible when you consider Suave and Newfoundland\'s race times. I think Pletcher is pulling the D.Wayne nonsense. Pletcher is a speed trainer, the faster the surface and shorter the race the better it is for him. But what I find especially interesting about this story is that with wind, lack of watering and the appearance of the track surface being dry on top its Pletcher\'s contention the track was getting slower. Upon very similar variables FOY day (wind, lack of water) TGJB factored the track getting faster. Now the direction and extent of the wind could be a factor there (Off the water bringing more humidity for instance) and perhaps TGJB could chime in regarding the wind data for the respective days. (Which is not to say I weigh what Pletcher thinks more heavily than T-Graph. I certainly DON\'T) But whats revealing about this card is that there was a race after the slowly run Derby, the final time of which tends to validate Testa in his statement that the track had requisite moisture, did not dry out appreciably despite the lack of water and was not cuppy and slow. On FOY day there was no post FOY two turn race to use when assigning the performance figure for the FOY runners.

I wouldn\'t want to have to make figures for the Florida Derby. I think Gulfstream is a quagmire for fig makers right now.


CtC



Post Edited (03-16-04 04:56)

[BitPlayer]

Brisnet.com has now posted their figures for the weekend.  While not directly comparable to the Beyers, they\'re more like what I was expecting with respect to the Florida Derby.  They have Friends Lake within a couple of lengths of Preachinatthebar and make the Swale the fastest of the weekend\'s Derby preps by a 2-3 lengths.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bit,

Can you post the link to the Brisnet numbers. I wasn\'t aware they made them available post race.

CtC

[shanahan]

Yes, I do believe the Derby winner ran in the TB derby...his name is Mustanfar, who got pinched back, raced all the way up to the front, got passed, and then came again in final strides...in case you did not notice, he faced a horse call Suave previously, who ran his race at GP 2 lengths quicker than the FL Derby winner...every now and then reading every little note in the Form can be a big help!

[jbelfior]

Shanahan--

I was hoping he would be in Pool #2....hopefully he\'ll get listed in #3. Anyway, MUSTANFAR will be an interesting possibility if he continues to improve.

By then, MIGLIORE may be facing a difficult decision since Kiaran McLaughlin is his brother-in-law.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[BitPlayer]

CTC -

I don\'t think you can link directly to the Brisnet page I was looking at.  You have to go through their home page to the Handicapper\'s Edge.  I think registration is required.  I\'m hesitant to say much more, because a TG board is not an appropriate place to promote Brisnet.

My point was simply that there is likely to be some dispute among figure makers about how to handle the Florida Derby track.  And disputes among figure makers are prime opportunities for profit if your figure maker is better than the other guy.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Bit,

You\'re correct of course and no one is suggesting that Bris numbers are anywhere close to T-Graph, anyone relying upon them is settling for fourth or fifth best. I\'ve seen no evidence that the host is shy about number comparison, but then he knows its to his benefit. He makes comparisons to Rag numbers. Beyers have been discussed here. Can you just tell us what the Bris number was for the Florida Derby winner? These things are relative and the basis for discussion. For example The Cliff\'s Edge Sammy Davis number:
 
Beyer....84 (17 points below 2yr top)
Bris.....97 (6 points  below 2yr top)
T-Graph..2,2(Equaling 2yr top)

(By the way if someone knows the Rag numbers for the Iroquois and Sammy Davis chime in)

Who do you think got it right? I\'ll comment on who got it right. Beyer was so far off the number its painful. Bris was off the best 2yo effort, but may have gotten closer to the actual Sammy Davis figure. T-graph had a reasonable 2yr top and a reasonable Sammy Davis and looks to have hit both nails squarely on the head.

We won\'t know the T-Graph number until its race time or thereafter, but I\'ll venture to guess its a more accurate number than the other fig makers and if you could back that bet you\'d win it at a very high percentage.

CtC



Post Edited (03-16-04 20:28)

[BitPlayer]

CTC -

Bris gave out the following numbers for this weekend:

Friends Lake (99)
The Cliff\'s Edge (97)
Eurosilver (103)
Suave (101)
Preachinatthebar (101)
Limehouse (100)

I\'m inclined to think that the Beyers are off for Gulfstream.

[Michael D.]

how can you discuss these #\'s without taking into account ground loss? do you realize TCE lost a ton of beyer points in ground loss alone at Tam?

[bdhsheets]

http://letitride.com/na_derby_pps.html

Through the Ballys contest, you can get BRIS pp\'s free. They contain the top 40 horses or so, on the TC trail.