Rebates - I've Got Questions

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

\"Inefficiencies in exacta pools?\" I have to interpret that to mean payouts that don\'t return fairly and that they bet other exactas in those pools that provide more value. Maybe RTF over Value Plus would be an \"inefficient exacta\"?

I know theres sharp cookies that play these value angles. I just can\'t get wrapped up in them, probably because I\'m not that smart, but to me the game will always first and foremost be about identifying winners on performance rather than odds. Which is not to say that I don\'t glance at the payout probabilities and bet because they are generous, but I\'ll only do that if I\'ve at least come up with a horse I think has winning performance potential. I\'m not a big place and show bettor, but I\'ve discovered the computer does the payout calculation for you and I made a couple of place and show bets Saturday based upon the probables. To my chagrin the odds changed late and cut my payout in half. But if you\'re looking for value in straight bet pools this computer betting is a new tool for it. But, I can\'t count the number times I\'ve seen big money come down and get lost on horses that made no sense. I don\'t believe in \"smart money\". The only smart money I know of is that which I bet and its not always smart. My problem when I go bad is that I\'m over selective. I\'ve lost tri\'s when I\'ve keyed a 20-1 winner and didn\'t go \"all\" for third. I\'ve done it many times, though not at 20-1. I\'ve bet straight tris heavily of A-B-C and not bet A-C-B. I get that confident in my ability sometimes and I pay for it. I\'m good at the handicapping part and sometimes poor at the money allocation part. Its what makes it all so interesting. However, value is an important factor and I\'ve come to have greater regard for it since visiting here. If it were only about the science of value however, I\'d have nothing to do with it. Theres no romance in a selection that only considers fair payouts.



Post Edited (03-15-04 04:24)

[BitPlayer]

My guess is that they\'re talking about exacta prices that are out of line with the win prices of the horses involved.

For example, Horse A might be 3/1 in the win pool, but someone armed with a computer (and complete, last-minute exacta pool info) might find that, by playing all of the exactas with Horse A on top the right number of times, they can guarantee themselves a payout of $1,000 (if Horse A wins) for only $200, effectively getting 4/1 on Horse A through the exacta pools.  If the exacta pools were in line with the win pools (a so-called \"efficient\" market), the exacta prices on Horse A would be lower, so that they\'d have to pay $250 to get $1000.

It\'s easy to imagine why exacta prices would be screwy.  There\'s just too much information to process, espcially with large fields (the GM said Tampa has an average field size of 10), so I assume that bettors follow some shared strategies that result in exacta prices yielded by those strategies being too low, and other prices being too high.  I\'ve never looked closely for patterns, but I have noticed, for example, that exactas where a trainer\'s uncoupled entry runs 1-2 tend not to pay very well.

You\'re right that there\'s no romance in this kind of stuff, but people betting big dollars aren\'t in it for the romance.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I refer to that as an \"perfecta underlay\". I look for them, but don\'t see them with great frequency and odds change so suddenly late now its too hard for me to keep track of. Its a betting windfall kinda like the figure horse where its worst figure beats the best figure of all of its rivals in the race. I think Beyer calls that one an \"Omni Fig\". The key of course is cashing that bet...lol

[Mall]

Funny indeed, in the sense that the presentations expose the peculiar logic of racetrack executives. As Boscar & BitPlayer pt out, when all is said & done Berube at Tam shut off the two rebate shops because they won money in 2003. The way Berube sees things, it\'s okay to win a few bets, but if & only if the winner then proceeds to \"churn\" his or her winnings back into the pools at the industry avg of 7 times.

A single yr doesn\'t necessarily prove anything, & my reading leads me to believe that more often the complaint is the one voiced by Mitchell of WO, namely that rebate players are losing less than others. As stated in JB\'s letter, one of the arguments against doing business with bookmakers is the possibility that they will quit taking your action if you are too successful. Tampa(& maybe FG & Oak) demonstates that bookmakers are not the only ones willing to do so, which is not the same as saying that batch wagering is fair to the avg bettor. It\'s not, for reasons which have already been alluded to & a host of others which deserve separate consideration.

Another oft-repeated argument of those in favor of rebates is that players are price sensitive. If that\'s true, then what explains the fact that Tam, whose outrageous takeout rates are 18.9% for st wagers, 22.5% for the dd,e&qui, & 25.9% for everything else, has already experienced a $40 million increase in handle this yr?

Of course, if you buy into Berube\'s absurd logic, Tam in effect \"reduced\" its takeout w/o changing these percentages when he shut off the 2 rebate shops. As idiotic as that sounds, it pales in comparison to Mitchell\'s argument that lowering the take hurts the avg bettor because he would win more, which he would then proceed to churn & lose, leaving him worse off than he would have been if he had lost his money in the 1st place.

I agree with both players & owners(& by extension horsemen) when they argue that they have been & are getting screwed. The way I see it, these presentations offer some interesting insights in the mindset of those who are responsible for administering the screwing.

[Boscar Obarra]

  Frankly, from the tone and \'insight\' expressed by most racetrack execs, I suspect they would be hard pressed to find permanent employment in a real job.  Thus, we are blessed with these nincompoops.

  On the other matter, I can say with some degree of expertise, that shopping for \'overlaid\' exactas is NOT what the boyz are doing.  Try it sometime, and to paraprahase the old commercial, you\'ll \'wonder where the money went\'.