Updated Historical Derby Data

[kmart4503]

Updated TG Data Spreadsheet

All,

Given all the conversations around CC and comments around his ability to run outside California, I got to thinking....

So, I went back to the original spreadsheet I made that had Dosage and CD in it and updated it to include the track that each horse ran at the 3 races prior to the Derby(using the TG abbreviations). Link is above.  

These were the last 3 races regardless if they were at 3 or the fall of their 2 year old season.

The labels are:

Track -1... 1 race before the Derby
Track -2... 2 races before the Derby and so on

I also added a column that says if the Derby effort was a Top, Pair, Off, or XX

I plan on looking at this tonight in my MBA class on Alternative Asset Management that puts me to sleep, but wanted to get it out there so people could start looking into it.

I think their could be some interesting angles-

- Do horses only having run at one track run a higher % of pairs and tops in the Derby?

- Do horses coming from certain tracks run a higher % of pairs and tops in the Derby?
 
- And so on... Not sure if JB has covered this previously in his seminars as I haven\'t watched them all.

I know that surfaces have changed over some tracks since 1998 so you\'ll have to note that.

Anyways, enjoy the data!

KMart

[covelj70]

This is honestly the best post of the year

I haven\'t even looked at the data but the part about how you are going to analyze this stuff instead of listening to another Private Equity lecture is phenomenal.

As someone who spent most of their time in class during business school day trading stocks during the first tech bubble and said day trading paid for my wife and I\'s first house, this is just great great stuff, regardless of what the data says!!!!

keep up the good work!

[moosepalm]

Covelj, don\'t you have a spare intern or two hanging around your outfit who could turn this into an extra credit project by sifting and sorting all this into trends and patterns for those of us whose attention span gets derailed at Victory Gallop?

Seriously, kmart, that\'s some good work you put into this.

[covelj70]

lol

Moose, all hands on deck tonight, heck, even I am still at the office with all of these earnings reports

I\'m too old for 15 hr days at my desk!!!!!

[kmart4503]

Data with Some Analysis

Haha thanks... A lecture on timber investments was intriguing, but less than attention holding.

Might be the same link, but I added some observations that I looked at in excel.

Horses that ran at CD 3 races prior to Derby.
Horses that ran all 3 preps at the same track.
Effort in Derby by track of prior race.

I included the number of observations in each so you can draw your own conclusions.

KMart