I could not have said it any better

[TGJB]

I\'m not trying to convince you of anything, least of all that a race you hit throwing out the favorite, and using a 35-1 shot, was a bad idea. I used the winner, but not the second horse-- Pletcher is killing me, again in the Next Move.

An 8:00 wind means going towards 8:00, behind them on the long straightaway for sprints.

What I meant when I said I didn\'t cut the race loose was that the track in general was speeding up late in the card, not just for that race. I had it almost 2 points faster in the 9th than the first (both 2 turns), another 2 1/2 faster for the FOY (11th). The sprints got about 2 points faster between the 4th and the 12th.

I don\'t know about other track supts, but Porcelli takes moisture content readings-- unfortunately not race by race, which is what would be needed to really work with this stuff. One of the scientists I mentioned in my expo presentation (Mick Peterson) is embarking on a large study of track surfaces, and may be taking those and other readings. He is the one who said \"I suspect that your information regarding the performance of horses, even given the other uncontrolled variables, may be the best data available\", so I offered him our data to use in a blind test. So far he has shown no interest, but I\'m going to ask him again.

[HP]

You \"used the winner\" Jerry? As in no WIN bet? At 35-1? I\'ve heard they have WIN betting at a lot of tracks now. Charles Bukowski (some great track stories) said \"the only bet is to WIN.\" He meant at 35-1, but he was often drunk.

I\'ve gotten better at this kind of thing. I could see not playing Sonny\'s Bruno to win at 9/2, but this is ridiculous. HP

[TGJB]

I made a 4 horse tri box, doubling up with the other three-- I didn\'t love the winner, was mostly playing against Pletcher and Tapit. Alan liked the winner much more than I did, and of course didn\'t bet him either. It\'s the single best betting system I have ever seen-- horses Alan likes and doesn\'t bet.

Sonny\'s Bruno??? You went way back to get that one, and I forgot you were there that day. May have blocked it out-- winning that stake ultimately led to my losing that  (big) client, believe it or not. But that is not a story I\'m going to tell here.

[Michael D.]

pletcher\'s horse did quit (last 1/8 in :14 with the wind at his back).
...... FL is much more than a one burst horse, did you notice his 2 yr old stakes win? he was close to a decent pace over a dull track for the entire mile (while earning a very good 2yr old #). i don\'t know how kimmel plans on training the horse up to the derby, but if they plan on finishing first in an eighteen horse field, i would crank him up a bit (see Atswhat... from last year).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Personally, I believe the moisture content riddle is the last piece of the puzzle. I think with accurate moisture content in hand for the respective tracks you will be able to see how the times in a 5,000 claiming race are impacted by varying degrees of moisture in the track. To my knowledge your T-Graph is the only entity that has stated how important this is. I think you\'re \"break off\" positions and generally reliable figs are because you are solidly on the trail of the last great variable in accurate performance figures.

I have to say I suspected you made the FOY 2.5 to 3 points faster than the other races. By that statement I\'m assuming you mean that you adjusted the figs up for the entrants and that without the adjustment they would have been assigned a performance figure 2.5 points faster than what they were given, is that correct? In other words without the adjustment for race 11 RTF would have had a negative 3.

Sounds like you had Stake and U.K. Trick hooked up. Pletcher has the golden touch right now. When a trainer is on a day like he was Derby Day, you can\'t leave him go when his horse on P.P.s looks competitive. I\'m still kicking myself for not having Newfoundland in the Skip Away. I was on Supah Blitz...lol I bad mouthed him here and I remember thinking \"you can\'t bet on that horse, you mouthed off bad about him\"...lol But back to the subject, U.K. ran good, if she gets a bit faster or gets a break like Friends Lake got she\'ll win that Black Type.

I want to hear the Sonny Bruno story that can\'t be told.

[Silver Charm]

CtC,

\"I was on Supah Blitz...lol I bad mouthed him here and I remember thinking \"you can\'t bet on that horse, you mouthed off bad about him\"...lol\"

If a Silver Charm goes in the starting gate on Derby Day and he has a line that looks like Preachinatthebar\'s will most likely look like. I\'m betting him.

[HP]

re: Michael D.\'s point--

That\'s exactly what Kimmel is good at. He can crank a horse up off the bench with the best of them. I think it\'s a strategy (training up to the Derby) that suits his style well. S

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Silver,

Did you notice the end of the San Felipe? Now I am keeping in mind that he was gettin six pounds from the Black colt, but when St.Averil came to him, I don\'t that even past the wire he ever got by. Did that remind you of anything?

I read how Preachin got his name. There is a bartender in the clubhouse at Santa Anita named Nola. When she serves the customers drinks she dispenses a little bible verse with the libation. She was nicknamed \"Holy Nola\" by the trainers and owners there. One of them took her nickname for their filly. That filly is a mare now and her 2001 foal is Preachinatthebar. I\'ve never been to Santa Anita, despite many chances to go. But the next time a trip comes up I just may accept and if I do one of the \"must do\'s\" of the trip will be a drink served by Holy Nola.

Then again, I\'d have to listen to Trevor Denman

lol

[jbelfior]

If you look at the THORO #\'s for PREACHIN\', they support a solid 3yo coming up to the big dance the right way. If horses like that paid $19 and change all the time I wouldn\'t have to work.

He\'s game as hell and displayed a new dimension as a presser as opposed to a grinder. I\'m still going to keep an eye on Baffert\'s other Silver Charm offspring (ODDS ON). Bobby B will have that one cranked for the next dance. The San Felipe was a needed 2 turn conditioner only.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Silver Charm]

Bob in the Bloodhorse regarding Preachin:

\"He\'s still not there yet, but he\'s getting there. We took the training wheels off and now he\'s out there on his own.\"

I\'m not sure the training wheels came off Preachin as much as the Restrictor Plates stayed on the trainer. This horse has nowhere near the number of bullet works most Baffert horses have. However I believe he will very soon and that is ok because there is a lot of work to be done to win on the First Saturday in May.

As far as Wimbleton goes he looks good but I read where he has a lot of speed on the bottom side. He also (not disclosing anything because its in The Race of the Week Archives) had a previous top of 8 prior to the La Derby. He will need to develop to about zero??? to win the Ky Derby. That\'s an awful lot to ask in such short amount of time.

As far as Silver Charm the sire goes there was a point in his spring three year old campaign where he wasn\'t totally right and things were looking very iffy for the real Silver Charm. Bob had some of Charlie\'s Boys (yeah that Charlie) come by and work on him and the rest, as they say, is history.

I love that horse so much I have a Ky Derby winners circle picture that hangs in my living room personally signed by Bob.

[TGJB]

Wimbledon had a 4 1/4 top before the La Derby, went forward almost 3 points that day.

[Silver Charm]

My mouth will not open any wider and I have run out of feet over the last 10 days.