Defection Speculation & Effects

[Tavasco]

As the derby picture continues to morph - I can\'t help but wonder about several contenders where I think the sensibility of the trainers will greatly effect the make-up of the race.

1, Tapiture & Asmussen, I expect them to drop out primarily because I\'m not seeing the upside of participating? I expect an announcements that Tapiture not training well?

2.  Ring Weekend & G. Motion, Another I anticipate will defect. Not much expectation @ 2 probably a turf career.  The gelding and changes led to Tampa jump up, no reason to run in the Kentucky Derby (Sire Prospects) unless they expect a big check so I will use if in and doubt he starts.

3. Midnight Hawk & Baffert, I doubt they do Hawthorne & Kentucky, Chitu can do enough running early to set up Hoppertunity.

4. Candy Boy & Sadler, Owners derby inexperience may override common sense. However, a defection would not surprise me. A Midnight Hawk floperoo in Illinois may influence decision. Or verse visa per TGJB.

5. I believe Harry\'s Holiday, Commanding Curve & Pablo Del Monte will start if able. However I am uncertain about Vinceremos & Bayern leaning toward them opting out if eligible.

Does anyone have any inside info or rumor mongering which helps clarify field,

[alang]

I think Midnight Hawk and Bayern pass. MH seems to be an miler who might get pointed to the Preakness or Met Mile and I think Bayern ends up in one of those popular two turn allowance races Derby day.

Asmussen didn\'t sound particularly flattered in his comments yesterday regarding Tapiture and with the controversy surrounding the barn they might pull the plug to get the press off his back.

Chitu, Candy Boy and Ring Weekend are tossups. Pablo Del Monte will almost certainly run if he gets in. Of course a few more top contenders could come up sore and can\'t participate which would throw everything up in the air.

[miff]

Guess if Tapiture is no good, he won\'t run.Doubtful the \"press\" will have anything to do with the decision to run or not.

[TMW]

I don\'t agree with your last statement in #3. Chitu is owned by Tanma Corporation. Hoppertunity is owned by Pegram and friends. Midnight Hawk is also owned in part by Pegram. I would bet Tanma Corporation has absolutely no interest in setting up anything for Pegram. Why would they? Maybe, his other horse and owner (MH) wouldn\'t mind though.

[jimbo66]

Chitu is faster than Hoppertunity and as accomplished.

He isn\'t going to be a rabbit. An uninformed statement.

[touchgold]

I agree!!!

[Tavasco]

TMW - I think I\'m agreeing with you when I say: I do not consider Chitu\'s race role to be rabbit. Hard to knock too hard on him. He looms a possible contender to me. I am concerned about the last 1/8. But his expected price mitigates much.

I do project Chitu to be near the pace (post permitting) and one of the last to lose momentum.

As for Tamma - I have no opinion yet, but their website doesn\'t seem to be complete.

[TMW]

Tavasco,

Your initial posting welcomed any inside information or rumor which I don\'t have.

My comment regarding your #3 comment just had to do with my belief that owners in a race such as the KY Derby are rightfully out for themselves and not running as a team event. I have to imagine Chitu\'s owner wants to win the race as does Hoppertunity\'s owner and Midnight Hawk\'s owner should they all run. The fact they are all trained by Baffert probably means nothing regarding strategy including suicidal strategy. Just my opinion. Seems like we actually agree. Others may not.

[Tavasco]

10-4!