How bad must Tapiture be? (or must Rosario think he is)

[jimbo66]

Before Saturday, I thought Tapiture had to be considered at least on the \"B list\" for Derby contenders.  Especially off his record at Churchill Downs.

don\'t get me wrong, he was horrible Saturday.  

But Rosario bails on him to ride General A-Rod?  This is not another attack on that horse, but wouldn\'t mainstream logic be that Tapiture is a stronger contender, despite the awful Saturday performance.  We all know Churchill is one of those \"Horse for the course\" tracks where certain horses thrive.  

Wondering how awful Rosario must think Tapiture is.  Have to downgrade that horse even further off this decision.

[TGJB]

...or...

[Tavasco]

It may be more about distancing himself from the trainer than the horse.

Since Phipps & Asmussen seem to be feuding, if Rosario or, more importantly his agent, were political animals it might be a good time to stay out of the spotlight.

Phipps wants the Derby horse vet records made public and recommended it may be a good time for trainer Steve to stay away from Churchill Downs. (DRF)

[toppled]

More likely he rides for Maker a lot more than for Asmussen, and is making sure he stays on the good side of a trainer who gives him plenty of mounts vs a guy who rarely uses him.  If you look at the stats, in 2013-14 he\'s had about 8 times the mounts for Maker as he\'s had for Asmussen (from DRF as of 4/5 he had 166 mounts for Maker & as of 4/12 he had 19 mounts for Asmussen 2013-14).

[jimbo66]

Toppled

Loyalty is meaningless when it comes to derby mounts.  Ask any jockey or agent

Castellano left a Pletcher horse last year in the derby.

[toppled]

Castellano is Chad Brown\'s go to rider, not Pletcher\'s.  I looked up last year\'s Derby day sheets.  At the time, the TG data listed 606 mounts for Castellano for Pletcher out of 10,553 starts, which means Castellano was aboard for 5.74% of Pletcher\'s starters.  Meanwhile Javier had 498 mounts for Brown out of his 1,726 starters, a much greater 28.69% of Brown\'s horses.  

Unless it comes down to where there is a clear difference between the horses, the jockey and his agent are going with the guy who brought him there and is more likely to do so again.  Few can say that either General A Rod or Tapiture has a really good chance to win this race.

[FrankD.]

A lot of big time jockey roulette at the top the past couple of years. Ramon having to retire prematurely and Johnny V\'s injury last year along with a real void of top talent. Look at Mike Smith and Gary Stevens still getting the lions share of big Cali stakes mounts at 50 something!

Castellano rarely rode for Pletcher before Johnny V\'s spill but was his first call all winter at Gulf. Lezcano rides many of Chad\'s big horses and they do very well together.

IMHO a very very weak top group of jocks nationwide without a lot of eye catchers coming up underneath either.

Good Luck,

Frank D.

[alang]

Riding in So Cal pretty much means nothing anymore to trainer/owners looking for guys/gals to ride in the big races. There are some exceptions but it used to be if you were a top 5 guy you were generally going to get (or be seriously considered for) a Derby and several BC mounts when event is held outside of CA. Not anymore.

Midwest guys/gals and bottom top 10 jocks in NY have a much greater chance of landing those mounts instead. Its just the way the game is played in 2014.

[bellsbendboy]

Jimbo,

I understand that \"mainstream \'cappers\" may have trouble with General A Rod and he is my only future bet, but I would not trade horses/places with anyone.  

bbb

[jimbo66]

BBB,

I am about as far from a mainstream handicapper as can be.  Unless applying standard logic is \"mainstream\"

The fact that you wouldn\'t trade places with anybody is an extremely silly statement.  So, General Arod is the most likely winner?  That is what you are saying.  

Or, at the price you have him it, you love him?  A big difference.

[TGJB]

Well the place he\'s in he has him at that price...