San Rafael and Big Cap

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Firstly, when is Santa Anita gonna dump that annoying announcer? He really makes listening to races like listening to nails being scrapped down a blackboard. American racing doesn\'t need any association with English or Australian racing. We are the standard. Let them try to pull Tom Durkin. I think the caller is Trevor Demond. He\'s not even good at it, completely loses contact with the horses and seems to take twice the time to let go of a syllable.

Now the San Rafael, It appears Lion Heart\'s stock as Kentucky Derby Favorite (He was in some circles) dropped a bit. The horse that won came from way back, though they ran on together post wire. Quintan\'s Gold Rush wasn\'t impressive and St. Averil wasn\'t flattered. Final time for the race 1:36:11 I don\'t know what that means yet, tuned in late to Santa Anita, which in my opinion is a \"back up\" track unless its a big day like today.

I suppose that evaluating the filly's chances depends at least in part upon how you weight her last three races.  I rate them well, By my reckoning (non T-Graph) shes got the fastest number in the race. She's been running on in the last three and they are all Grade I's. She seems to want to go longer and you know she's fast at 7 marks.  Where it became a wager for me was in comparing the Malibu to the La Brea. Theres an 11 pound weight shift in Island Fashions favor.  Even before the weight shift she ran faster early and came home quicker.  Granted the races were run on different days and there are sex allowances to consider, but I can't ignore those performance differences especially when one horse is even money and the other 7-1.  With P.P. out I made Southern Image the favorite and if you like him, you can't help but like the filly.  I'm really not overly confident in this bet, because I am projecting quite a bit. But in this race, you have to project no matter who you go with.  The filly is coming home nicely,  In my opinion, she's not a Winning Colors or Serena's Song, but she may not have to be. That said I believe she may be right on the pace. This is a very strange Big Cap. It's a lot of money at stake for horses that have never really proven they want 10 marks in top company.

For me it's an Island – Star Cross perfecta, with Island keyed in other exotics over most everything else

CtC



Post Edited (03-06-04 19:47)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well, I\'ve been bitten with seconditis recently and not just in the races I\'ve discussed here. I believe that will change tomorrow. She was also pinched back early I think she ran every bit as well as the winner.

Theres one other thing to keep in mind regarding the outcome of this race and I did consider it. Both P.P. and Master David came down with the same 102 degree fever a day or two before the race. They are obviously from different barns and its possible a bug is going around the Santa Anita backside. Did it impact the outcome of this race irrespective of P.P\'s scratch? Perhaps, perhaps not.

The horse that impressed me most from this card was Boomzeeboom in the final race. It would be interesting to know what type of number T-Graph is gonna assign. Tough day to make figs on. All those turf races and then a maiden zinger.

CtC



Post Edited (03-06-04 22:14)

[Michael D.]

CtC,
nice analysis of the big cap...... the filly ran well, and Olm was a bit short. you deserved to make some money in that one.

[brokerstip]

Chuckles
I watch Cal. racing almost every day as it is the most convenient track for an employed East Coast bettor plus my ROI is favorable which doesn\'t hurt.

You have me laughing.

Trevor D is South African and not Aussie or English.
Trevor D, imho, is the best racecaller bar none.
Never loses touch with a horse. Spots the movers early and can usually call the winner from the quarter pole.
Tom D can go scrape some paint in between martinis....lol...

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I suspected he wasn\'t English by the tone. Theres a God awful tone to that accent. Theres horrible reverberation in it. I can\'t even describe it, other than a champagne flute near my computer shattered during his call. I guessed at Australian. I hope the Australians forgive me. Besides, our racing is much better than they race in South Africa, regardless of Horse Chestnut.

But I stand by my positions that California racing is back up racing and that Trevor\'s difficulty in pronouncing syllables in English makes it impossible for him to quickly pick up and call out positions when his own voice is caught up in the drone you hear and feel when very close to extreme high voltage/ high tension power lines.

My guess is sterility is a problem for frequent Santa Anita race goers.

CtC

[brokerstip]

Clever and funny...
But it is rather odd that so any racecallers have picked up on Trevor D\'s lingo...
I noticed D. Johnson incorporates the color of the silks and caps into his calls:
(i.e \"that\'s Seretariat in the blue and white silks coming on the grandstand side\"). That\'s a Trevor D. call that he effortlessly fits into the race scenario without missing a beat. DJ butchers it.
Or, in emphasizing a frontrunner that has repelled all challengers--\"he\'s digging down and finding more o the lead\" --even J. Bogar from Penn National uses that one now.
As far as sterility goes, are you comparing SA race fans to a J&J bandage or Rafael Palmiero and Bob Dole? Inquiring minds would like to know?

[jbelfior]

Chuckles---

You want Trevor Denman replaced?? You handicap horses a lot better than you handicap announcers (nice call on ISLAND FASHION IN THE BIG CAP---she ran her eyeballs out).

I disagree with your assessment of QUINTON\'S GOLD RUSH. I thought it was a nice effort from the outside post and would be interested in what his THORO figure is compared to the runner-up.


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

No aspersions intended. I\'m outta the loop, what does sterility have to do with Johnson & Johnson bandages, Palmiero or Bob Dole? Now I know Dole used Viagra for what I\'m assuming is its common usage. Sterility isn\'t a functional problem its a Cigar problem.

I just don\'t like Demond is all. Its merely the tone of his voice and accent. I\'d prefer an American, but I do think if you\'re calling colors you\'re missing horses. To my mind the caller should be calling the race as if the viewer can\'t see the race, so colors are extraneous. Maybe the listener is in the \"John\" too disheartened to actually watch the race. Maybe he\'s not a real race goer and went for a beer or a hotdog on that race.

Different strokes for different folks I guess. I didn\'t realize other people actually liked that way of calling. You think everyone views the world the way you do until someone opens your eyes to the fact thats not true and then you wonder how can I be so right and they so wrong?



CtC

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I would never think of leaving Trevor out of a job. I\'d just prefer he\'d call a track I don\'t ever bet on...lol

The filly should have won Joe. She got subtlely pinched back pre first turn and then went wide. Southern went right along the rail. The filly should have a better number. Thats horseracing. I wouldn\'t have bet her against P.P. so the scratch cost me money...lol I checked the Red Board and the T-Graph picker called the filly. I\'m assuming it was TGAB, who I\'m beginning to gain quite a measure of regard for.

Quinton and Wimbledon have a lot in common. They are both Wild Rush\'s. They both are lightly raced. They both hail from the land of Trevor Demond and they both may be the best hope for their respective barns. The difference is Quinton won maiden, stepped up on his home track and got beat 6 lengths, Wimbledon won maiden stepped up on a track he never worked upon, rated and won a 600K race in 1:42 and change. I will grant you that Quinton\'s finish was not an embarrassment, but it wasn\'t impressive either. He did run wide both turns, take that away from him and hes much closer, maybe right there, but you have to admit time is running short and he didn\'t overcome adversity. This is the problem with the pre Derby light racing schedule, theres no margin for error. You\'ve got to season the horse and if you find some bumps along the way what are you left with? I don\'t think you have to grind on them when they are two a la Lukas, but you need a solid foundation. That said the day will come when a horse never starts at two, starts twice pre Derby and wins the thing. You just have to recognize its gonna take a special horse. I don\'t want that to become the norm though. I don\'t believe most horses will peak using that model and its just boring. Remember Lammtarra, who wants that kind of careful handling to become standard? BORING. But, our friend Silver Charm made a good point. It\'s too early to say for sure. You can\'t rule out Fire Slam and you can\'t rule out Quinton yet.

I analyzed the Sunday Fair Grounds card. Here are the times from the day:

23.45, 47.68, 1:00.16, 1:06.50 – 12,500 Open Claiming

24.56, 49.05, 1:13.99, 1:39.05 – 20,000 4up Claiming

23.09, 47.05, 59.91, 1:06.70 – 12,500 Open Claiming

21.82, 44.54, 56.76, 1:09.90 – NW1X 3yr Fillies

22.35, 45.58, 58.34, 1:10.69 – 75K Stakes 3yr Fillies

22.48, 45.27, 1:10.65, 1:36.29, 1:42.71 – 600K Stakes 3yr Colts

The races were cheap early. It wasn\'t until the fourth dirt race that the horses got better and/or the track sped up some. NW1X fillies ran substantially faster than Stakes fillies. The top two finishers in the NW1X both would have won the Stakes. Granted most of the \"Stakes\" fillies only had two wins and their going in numbers were no better. A perfect example, as someone wrote, that a great trainer places his horses in stakes when they can win stakes.  I think its pretty clear at this point that Asmussen\'s purchase of Polish Rifle from the \"Son of leading trainer\" connections was in all likelihood a mistake. Perhaps both Asmussen and Barnett could use some speed advice from T-Graph. At first glance I thought the La. Derby was torrid. I\'m not confident of that any longer. Beyer only gave Wimbledon a 101 figure. I did this review because I thought it should be faster. My tenative conclusion is that the track was faster than I thought and that the horses that faded from the top spots had less of a justification for having done so. Fire Slam was coming off an infirmity and it may have compromised his chances some, but I think a good horse, like Peace Rules, would have been much closer at the end. I still like Wimbledon, because I think he did it easy, so we\'ll see.

TGJB and TGAB if I ever put my foot in my mouth (which I\'m prone to do) don\'t hesitate to correct me if its not too proprietary.

CtC



Post Edited (03-08-04 23:06)

[jbelfior]

CtC--

This is a great time of year for horseplayers. Sorting out the 3yos has got to be one of the most challenging aspects of this game.

In early-mid March, I equate the 3yos to a sophmore in HS who is good enough to play JV basketball, but not yet physically able to play varsity. Can anyone predict where he\'ll play as a junior? senior? Only time will tell.  

For the HS kid, you\'ll have to wait a year. That \"year\" for the 3yos is in the next 3-4 weeks. Who\'ll step up? Who\'ll step up even more? Who is the FUNNY CIDE that goes from an OK third in the La. Derby to a huge effort in the Wood?


Good Luck,
Joe B.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I love this time of year Joe. Its because the whole enchilada of handicapping comes into play. With the handicap stars you can pretty much rely on figs and form cycles.



Post Edited (03-09-04 09:04)

[TGAB]

\"I checked the Red Board and the T-Graph picker called the filly. I\'m assuming it was TGAB...\"

I\'d take credit for it if I could but I can\'t. Nick made the selection. He\'s our West Coast handicapper.