Hoppertunity is gonna be a tough read

[covelj70]

Based on what JB said yesterday on CC figrure in the SA Derby, Hopportunity went backward a few points, maybe to his secondary top?

what do we do with that come Derby Day?

On one hand, he clearly wasn\'t completely cranked up so maybe we dismiss the bounce in the SA Derby?

He has the pedigree to get the distance, won\'t be the favorite, has a top as fast as all but 1 or 2 in the race and has a trainer that certainly isn\'t afraid to push him hard to be ready for the big effort at CD

On the other hand, horses that bounce in their final prep aren\'t typically a good play at CD, he just got whupped by a horse he will run against at CD that has more tactical speed than he does and the silly gallop out analysis that handicappers are obsessed with likely means that while he won\'t go off as the favorite, he might be a few points short of where he should be

he\'s the one I am likely going to have the hardest time making up my mind about

thoughts?

[Old Mr. Boston]

Jim,
Without seeing the numbers, I will tell you that my initial thought after the SA Derby Was that Hoppertunity\'s race reminded me a lot of Monarchos. If you remember, he ran big in the Florida Derby and then just used the Wood (which he lost) as a glorified workout for Kentucky.

[BitPlayer]

On the NBC Sports broadcast, Jay Privman said Hoppertunity lost weight coming out of the Rebel, which might help explain the regression.  It would be nice to know if he puts it back on.

Another thing that would influence me is whether Mike Smith stays or goes elsewhere (Intense Holiday and Commissioner being the obvious candidates).

[Polamalu43]

I\'m going to trust the trainer, he has the pedigree to get every part of the 1 1/4, the pace as usual is always fast in the Derby, so he will be able to close.

Even though he clearly wasn\'t cranked and used the SA as another stepping stone, he still ran 12 second furlongs in the SA Derby and ran the final 3/8ths in 37.46 to my eye.  Being able to clip off 12 second furlongs, at 1 1/8, has always been a crucial part to my handicapping the KD!

Hopper is a must use to me!

[miff]

Jim,

Positives,Hopportunity definitely looks to stay the trip and maybe get into the number depending on trip.Has shipped and won,Baffert tough customer on big days.I dont see his last as a regression at all even though the fig will say that.Caught a speed track on Sat and a superior horse, both negative dynamics.

Dont like that he:

1.Kinda idled into the last turn twice now.

2.Has a wet track top which is somewhat incongruous with his other figs(nice overll TG pattern though,pre Sat)

3.His 3/4 top was ground loaded,more methodology fast than racetrack fast.

4.Not a fan of his top fig win earned with 4 horses bunched at the wire.


May go off somewhat shorter due to Baffert but pools so deep with soft money on Derby day that it\'s more than a wash.


Mike

[big18741]

Same question can be asked about Intense Holiday.

Ugly cross fire into the rail in the La Derby to be considered but he\'ll get a more honest pace than he\'s seen in either Fairgrounds race or the Remsen last year.

I don\'t like either as a Derby winner but both suck up candidates from off the pace.

[phil23]

Think the price will be there to take the shot on IH getting back to it, the way people are talking up about HOP\'s 2nd placing, seems much less likely.

BB all but said in the days leading up to it that he was just trying to get the bounce out of the way (which naturally stopped me from playing the obvious cold exacta...there\'s probably a lesson in there about giving trainer talk too much credence) but just because he did just that doesn\'t mean he gets to go back to his top next out. Especially when it\'s 5th race in 13 weeks (and that\'s not even counting his debut in early Jan)...actually let\'s just stop right there...holy smokes. I had to go back to look that up. Does anyone else think this is kind of insane? 5 races...in just 13 weeks! One race ever 2.6 weeks.

This, on racing\'s biggest day, with the video, and PETA, and history as well...2008...

[TGJB]

Re PETA--

Asmussen will have the Oaks favorite. At least.

[richiebee]

Ok, Phil, I\'ll help you back off the ledge here.

Spectacular Bid prepped for the Kentucky Derby by winning the Hutcheson, the
Fountain of Youth, the Florida Derby, the Flamingo and the Blue Grass. He still
had enough gas in the tank to win the Derby and Preakness. A safety pin prevented
him from winning the Triple Crown. He went on to have a 4YO season which may have
been the most brilliant ever of any thoroughbred running on dirt.

I\'ll say it again. PETA/Assmussen was probably an inside job. The fact that PETA
has not been more visible at American racetracks and training facilities over the
years might be attributable to the possibility that PETA receives a lot of money
from the thoroughbred industry. PETA and Joe Drape could have released this
information much closer to the Derby for maximum damage. PETA did not call for
all Racing to cease, but rather called attention to legislation currently before
Congress.

With the money PETA likely receives from the thoroughbred industry they can turn
their attention to fur wearing celebutards, laboratory rats, and puppy mills.

Racing goes on. Scott Blasi is somewhere washing his mouth out with soap.
Assmussen lost one owner but will likely be represented in both the Oaks and the
Derby. Everybody from Ogden Phipps on down got an opportunity to make a soundbite
to reaffirm their commitment to the well being of the equine. There is always the
distant possibility that something positive will come out of Blasigate, but I
will not be holding my breath.

[drbillym]

Hi Richie, did you notice how thin Hoppertunity appeared last race?  I think if Baffert puts some weight on him and gives him some easy breezes, he will be a good value bet.  
As for California Chrome, I am not a big fan of horses wearing blinkers in the 1 1/4 mile derby.  Also, there will be a few others with blinkers on.  CC will either have to go too fast or be in an uncomfortable position.  He\'s getting all the hype and bettors who look in their rear view mirror rather than thru the windshield, looking for an improving 3 yr old, will be disappointed.  And happy with 3-1?

[Niall]

Like everyone else on here I am also looking for a way to beat the pro tem fav, so hard to disagree with the comments about improvement and price. However in looking for the proverbial chink in the armor, I dont see CC being uncomfortable under any circumstances. Watch some of those replays from last year. Lots of experience. Now Jim C may be looking for someone who has overcome adversity, and true, CC had it but didnt overcome. I\'m going to say that the rider change made a huge difference. Agapito Delgado(?) may be good, but since Victor got on him there has been much improvement. What strkes me is in those races he never quits. He keeps coming... Would love to know what trip handicappers think.

[miff]

Nial,

If you want possible knocks, CC\'s last two wins were on speed biased surfaces which may have flattered his up close running style in those races.Having said that, 3 back, in his first dirt race at SA, he exploded from off the pace.

Mike

[pizzalove]

I agree with just about everything written on this topic.  I will add a couple of things to it.  I think it is tough to write off Hoppertunity.  He was closing ok against a very slow pace.  I didnt notice anything about his weight but I was watching on TV.

If you want to know a horse that needs weight it is CC.  But if he does put on a few pounds he could be even better.  That is scary.  I didnt like his weight at all at SA.