Santa Anita Late Pick 4, Big Cap Day

[P-Dub]

Race 8: Kilroe Mile GR1

5 horses have run a number that it takes to win this race. Optimizer, Suggestive Boy, Za Approval, Winning Prize, and Silentio. No clear favorite and a price on the ML with Optimizer off the layoff. Za Approval has a nice forging line, marched forward all year to his big race in the BC. An obvious use for me. Optimizer a must use also at the ML, if he runs a good one off the layoff he can be right there. Winning Prize has run 3 solid turf races in this country and will also be used. Tossing Silentio. Tom\'s Tribute is interesting, if he can move forward off his last he may surprise or at the least spice up the verticals. Will include Suggestive Boy.
3-4-5-6-8

Race 9: Big Cap GR1

WTC and MMM have pounded out similar negatives over the last 3-4 races. They are clearly the 2 best horses. Blingo bore in last time and looks like a bounce candidate to me. Imperative gets 2 points in weight, and Thoro-Pattern gives him a 32% chance for a new top. Has marched steadily forward, done nothing wrong, and as a 4YO has a license to improve further. A very interesting longshot with the weight break and a point or 2 of improvement. GOD a contender on his best, has followed poor efforts with good ones. He\'s a hard one to toss, but a hard one to really believe in. Sentimentality has no place in wagering, does it?? West Coast horse, the great Mike Smith, Baffert, noble gelding?? A reluctant toss, if he beats me I can still smile.
1-2-4

Race 10: ALW 6.5 Dirt

Chief Lion ran a good one at HP late last year, if he gets back to that he has a big shot here. Oliver\'s Tale has a sheet with big gaps, but off a 4 month layoff can fire a good one that would be more than good enough to take this.  Will be sent hard from the jump, but has to deal with other speed.
2-3

Race 11: OCL 1M Turf

Several running in the same range, and we have two imports piloted by top jockeys and conditioned by guys that can fire with this type. They are also 1st lasix and can drastically improve on their moderate Euro numbers. If I toss one its the 11 due to the poor draw. Magic Channel a nice effort with a bad start in last, 4Yo can improve off his last and that makes him very live in here. This One\'s For Mel ran a new top first out as a 4YO, if he goes forward again he is another live one at a price. Interesting that Saez picks up the mount.  Kochees another with a nice number 1st out as a 4YO, a forward move puts him there too at a decent price.  This race is wide open and I don\'t want to settle on an underlay, especially if the previous races end up chalky.

3-4-6-7

Final Ticket:
.50 P4: 3,4,5,6,8/1,2,4/2,3/3,4,6,7 = $60

Emergency ticket in case the one I leave out wins.
9/1/2,3/4,7 = $2

I am so fired up for tomorrow, great seats at the 1/16 pole. Fantastic weather, large crowd, tremendous slate of top flight racing. Best of luck to all of you, enjoy the day.

[covelj70]

Thanks for taking the time to post this. Great thoughts

Good luck and enjoy the weather

[drbillym]

Nice analysis but scary to leave out Game on Dude or any possible lone speed horse.  Good Luck.

[Silver Charm]

Sounds great and can feel your energy and excitement. Love it. Good Luck those are some tough races the San Carlos and Kilroe. Great day for wagering all around and the good news is the action doesn\'t start until like 3:pm at Tampa, SA and GP and Oaklawn has a couple. Good Luck everyone

[P-Dub]

drbillym Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Nice analysis but scary to leave out Game on Dude
> or any possible lone speed horse.  Good Luck.


I know Doc. May have to include another skinny emergency ticket.

[richiebee]

A bit disappointed that with all of these stake races no all stake P4.

How about an all stakes P3 starting with the ROTW San Felipe:

San Felipe: ROTW says Cal Chrome is slam dunk; he is much faster on the TGs
than this bunch. I will demonstrate to Jimbo that I do not have an anti - NYB
bias; its a healthy skepticism against all state breds when running against
open company. CC has four lifetime wins, all v Cal breds. I\'ll use him but
also will use Kristo and will show some forgiveness to Midnight Lute, who was
less than impressive in the RB Lewis.

China Doll: Will go with a deep spread here but the one I prefer is Carla
Gaines\' Nashoba\'s Gold who looked very good to me in breaking her maiden.

San Carlos: Sahara Sky is a 4/1 3rd favorite after a disappointing race off
the 8 month layoff. The Met Mile winner is good at SA, good at the distance
and won this race last year. Has gone TG negative multiple times while no
other runner in the field has crossed into minus territory. At 4/1 he would
be my best bet of the day, but have a feeling this one is 9/5 or 2/1 fave at
post time. The ML favorite in this race is Baffert\'s Shakin It Up, who comes
out of two straight graded stakes wins at Santa Anita. He has been prone to
wide trips, breaks from the outside, and carries 3 pounds more than Sahara Sky:
a routine weighted/wide TG toss?

P3 Race 5:

4,7,9/1,4,7,8,10,11,13/1  x $2 = $42

4,7,9/7/1 x $4 = $12

[jimbo66]

Richie,

Good to see you dislike all state breds.

I will also be a little against California Chrome.  Those TG figures are loaded with a ton of ground loss and since the horse has no speed, he figures to potentially have to circle again.  I will likely toss and use Kristo and Midnight Hawk, who was downright awful last time, but should get a good trip on a relatively easy lead, assuming Rosario doesn\'t send Kristo hard.  

I believe you will get more than 2-1 on Sahara Sky.  I like the horse also, but that race is pretty inscrutable.  Hard to make out the pace scenario and the trips they are likely to get.  I have to toss Wild Dude, who now spots weight off a pace collapse, worse than it looks win.  I have to use Midnight Transfer on the cutback, think he wants to sprint.  1-9-10 there for me.

The Kilroe Mile is a great race, but looks chalky to me.  Winning Prize was awesome last time and Za Approval is terrific on firm turf.  will use those two and let Silentio beat me, which he might do.  (have to think he loses ground and doesn\'t get a great trip from the outside slot).

After contemplating using Game on Dude, I couldn\'t.  Too many bad races in a row.  Chalky again for me, as Mucho Macho figures to get first run on Will Take Charge, and assuming the pace is as controlled as I suspect it will be, it should favor Mucho Macho.  The early part of the race will be key, as Stevens has to leave for position, likely let the Dude go by, then take his customary stalking spot.  If he gets caught inside, trouble for him.  

May try to get Secrets at Midnight home in the 10th, on the cutback, to get some value in the late pick 4.  Ton of early speed in the race, looking for somebody to stalk, just off.  Midnight ran better than it looks last time, basically used as a rabbit for Cat Burglar.  Pressed a fastish pace, going two turns and held ok.  think he is better sprinting.  His race December 1st at this distance would make him tough.

Good luck.

[P-Dub]

richiebee Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> A bit disappointed that with all of these stake
> races no all stake P4.
>
> How about an all stakes P3 starting with the ROTW
> San Felipe:
>
> San Felipe: ROTW says Cal Chrome is slam dunk; he
> is much faster on the TGs
> than this bunch. I will demonstrate to Jimbo that
> I do not have an anti - NYB
> bias; its a healthy skepticism against all state
> breds when running against
> open company. CC has four lifetime wins, all v Cal
> breds. I\'ll use him but
> also will use Kristo and will show some
> forgiveness to Midnight Lute, who was
> less than impressive in the RB Lewis.
>
> China Doll: Will go with a deep spread here but
> the one I prefer is Carla
> Gaines\' Nashoba\'s Gold who looked very good to me
> in breaking her maiden.
>
> San Carlos: Sahara Sky is a 4/1 3rd favorite after
> a disappointing race off
> the 8 month layoff. The Met Mile winner is good at
> SA, good at the distance
> and won this race last year. Has gone TG negative
> multiple times while no
> other runner in the field has crossed into minus
> territory. At 4/1 he would
> be my best bet of the day, but have a feeling this
> one is 9/5 or 2/1 fave at
> post time. The ML favorite in this race is
> Baffert\'s Shakin It Up, who comes
> out of two straight graded stakes wins at Santa
> Anita. He has been prone to
> wide trips, breaks from the outside, and carries 3
> pounds more than Sahara Sky:
> a routine weighted/wide TG toss?
>
> P3 Race 5:
>
> 4,7,9/1,4,7,8,10,11,13/1  x $2 = $42
>
> 4,7,9/7/1 x $4 = $12


Great call on Sahara Sky Richie. I ended up singling him to start a P3 that paid $134 for a buck, and put something on his nose. That\'s what kept me above water for the day. Thank you sir.

Ya got one today to send me home smiling??

[richiebee]

P-Dub:

Glad I could be of service. The Sahara Sky race was fun to watch. Denman twice
mentioned that he came \"from nowhere\" to win it. I hope Hollendorfer sends him
back to NY to attempt to repeat in the Met Mile.

The spread P3 I bet came back $120 for $2. If Nashoba\'s Gold wins the China Doll
(middle leg)(she finished second), the P3 probably pays $200-$250 and I have it
for $6. Will look forward to watching Nashoba\'s Gold in the future ... I think
her best distance is somewhat longer than the flat mile she ran yesterday.

[P-Dub]

Sitting in the Burbank airport waiting for a flight back home. Some bullet points:

- Racing people are much more accommodating and friendly than those in other sports.  Had brief moments with Jimmy The Hat, Billy Koch of Little Red Feather, one of the owners of California Chrome (he had the box in front of us on Saturday, he thoroughly enjoyed that win). Walked past Gary Stevens Saturday night outside The Derby as we were walking to dinner. Friendly wave and a few words with him. Racing people seem to \"get it\", that fans are important.

- Disappointed that only 27k showed up Saturday. Many employees commented they don\'t advertise like they should. Maybe not, but the weather was incredible.  No baseball, no football, a beautiful clean facility.  Top flight racing. I\'ve seen bigger crowds than that with lesser race cards and weather.

- As we talked about, the facelift to the clubhouse really works.  The grounds are immaculate, beautifully landscaped, statues of equine and human greats, fountains, the massive grandstand facade, mountains in the backdrop. Top flight track announcer, the top jockey colony in the country. As Edgorman said, you could eat off the floor. It never gets old. I know I just repeated what I said the other day. Sorry.

- Game On Dude obviously the highlight of the weekend. Nobody got the opportunity to bash the great Mike Smith.  Maybe next time. (I know JB, but can I crow just a little??)

- My wagering was up and down. Missed the late P4 at Tampa today by a nose in the 3rd leg. Got run down by Bejarano down the hill, but the exacta pd a nice $132. Still wondering how the leading rider can win 3 races and pay $22 and $15+.  Got out in the Hawthorne nightcap, getting the win/ex/trifecta. The fields were big and often contentious. A worthwhile handicapping challenge. One last thanks to RBee for Sahara Sky.

- The racing was phenomenal this weekend, and it was good to see Johnny V ride the favorite today.  Another really nice guy, very good with the fans. Congrats to Jim winning the Oaks yesterday.  Good discussion on the races, even though my analysis didn\'t turn out as good as I had hoped.

- The racing at my home track, GGF, is pathetic. I couldn\'t believe the crap I was watching on the monitors, I don\'t think I wagered on more than 2 races there all weekend. Its amazing they have show wagering the fields are so small.

- The downhill turf course rocks. I don\'t know what it is, even my wife asked why there weren\'t any Saturday. She loves those races down the hill. Santa Anita has a turf course that is green, well maintained, and beautiful.

- Trumpet Player Jay is awesome. Talented, funny, engaging. He clearly enjoys what he does, and the fans love him. Great guy.

- Gary Stevens has long been one of our favorite jockeys, going back 20+ years. Great to see him riding at an elite level. Yes, he gets good mounts and picks his spots. Seldom does he give a poor ride, great sense of timing, gets everything out of his mounts.  Truly one of the greats and a pleasure watching him ride this weekend. We\'ve called him G-Money for the longest time, and he certainly deserves that moniker.

I don\'t know when my next trip will be. Later in the meet, Breeders\' Cup, or next year\'s Big Cap. I do know that I can\'t wait to get back. Looking forward to the usual great discussion on the path to the Kentucky Derby.