Breeders Cup Winners & Losers

[ColonelShillito]

Random thoughts on this past weekend\'s cup:

Winners - I am a small time player so purchasing sheets every weekend is not in my budget and I have never purchased the Ragozin sheets. I have bet races since my teen years (25 years ago) and in my experience there is no greater edge than what ThoroGraph provides to the player. I thought the Breeders Cup seminar provided clarity, as well. Look no further than the recommendation of Silentio, which helped key a $1440 superfecta for a buck underneath a 4-5 favorite.

Winners - Santa Anita screwed up the racing surface on Friday, but had the common sense to admit their mistake and make it fair the following day. After last year\'s debacle and the golden and dead rails that Churchill has given us in past Cups, this is a breath of fresh air.

Winners - Buff Bradley, Charlie LoPresti, and Mike Puype should be commended for horsemanship in keeping Groupie Doll, Wise Dan, and Mizdirection healthy and in peak condition over several racing seasons. Same goes for their respective owners for keeping their horses in training. Horse racing is a better sport as long as the stars remain on the racetrack and not in a paddock somewhere mumching clover.

Losers- I think we need to put to bed the notion of the 72 hour surveillance angle affecting performance of Pletcher, Baffert, McLaughlin, etc. I used this angle in my handicapping and it cost me dearly. In the Sprint, I was really on Laugh Track, but tossed Secret Circle, mainly because of my anti-PED stance.  I think Pletcher and Baffert horses fail in the Breeders Cup because they are raced hard throughout the year and are well past their peak by the time they get to the Cup. Look at Bafferts two winners - New Year\'s Day came in fresh off of just two starts. Secret Circle had made just 1 start in many months. This is opposed to Game On Dude, who had made maybe 5 starts this year(?) and has had a long career to boot. I think Aidan O\'Brien has figured this out, by the way. His Turf winner Magician and Classic 3rd Declaration of War came into their respective races fresh and each fired their best shot possibly as a result.

Thanks again to all who participated in this forum prior to the Cup races and provided analysis or opinion. It was greatly appreciated by yours truly. Congrats to Mr. Covello for his filly\'s effort in the Juvenile Fillies Turf. An outstanding effort by Testa Rossi. Dare I say point this filly to the Bluegrass Stakes next April???

[dodie]

Excellent post, Colonel.
I would also add the dominance of horses based in California in the dirt races, and the European horses on the turf.  Bottom  line, I\'m going to subtract a point or two from every Euro number until Jerry tells me otherwise next year.  Mucho Macho Man shipping ~6 weeks early just proves the point.  I, for one, am glad the BC is at Santer Aniter again next year.  I have some opinions, backed by at least 2 years of data, that I\'m going to focus on.  Oh yeah, Beholder.