Early BC Thoughts

[covelj70]

Hah, good one JB

I am pretty jacked up this week so I threw extra awesome\'s in there

[miff]

For those using TG and Rags,stop laughing!

[TGJB]

Those using both might have a heart attack when they look at some of the differences (Bondholder comes to mind, they have his last as a large backward move). It\'s hard to believe they still haven\'t done a standard sprint/route analysis for SoCal, the serious distance problems have been there for years.

[miff]

We Miss Artie is the worst conversion in history!

[TGJB]

Yeah, that was an interesting figure to do. It started raining before the 7th race (grass), that was the 8th, then it stopped before the 9th (another main track route), so that was the only main track race where there was rain. The only way the race made sense was if you broke it out-- winner got a big new top (which going in it looked like he would need even to get close), second horse (who I bet) a smaller one, rest of the race fell in line with several running bad. The way Len (or whoever) did it the winner paired his very slow top, and the rest ran absolutely horrible. Like 5-10 points off their tops. In a GI. Where they have the winner running a 17.

My guess is they don\'t have a \"live\" trackman, someone does ground off TV and they didn\'t know it rained. Which would be okay, IF they didn\'t make all the assumptions they do-- like the track stays the same speed all day. That\'s where their dogma kills their customers.

[20kbrew]

Awesome!

[Fairmount1]

Great thoughts Jimbo.  I\'ve thought for a while about my own opinions, some very similar to yours and some very different.  But boiling it down....i Love that I can tell everyone my opinions and they won\'t affect my price at the windows and that others, contrarians likely, will differ so much.  

I\'ve learned from 14 years of following the game all too close that Breeders Cup is not a place to conquer every race, so I narrow it down these days to very few places.  Early thoughts:

Gabriel Charles (non Bc race)

Dance to Bristol

Mucho Macho Man

Working around those three to make my cash.  Longshots that intrigue me:  Sky Painter, Twilight Eclipse, and Bahamian Squall.  

Best of luck to everyone.  As contrarian as I am on the board, this is a great time to be a fan of the game and to be a fan of all horseplayers that enjoy the intellectual pursuit of horse racing profitability.  Can\'t wait to hear Richiebee\'s thoughts on the weekend as well as many others.  I encourage others to post away during this exciting time.

[richiebee]

Steve Crist put it very well in DRF: While only one championship will be determined on Friday, the BC races presented that day are wide open gambling affairs with big fields which almost guarantee decent mutuels for both horizontal and vertical wagers.

I think whoever makes such decisions wasted an opportunity to provide horseplayers with an all BC pick 5 beginning with the Marathon. At first glance I wanted to ignore the race, but it is rather irresistible-- 10 starters who made their last start at 9 different venues, some regional trainers, a NY bred who has been slumming at some small English tracks. Eldaafer, the 2010 winner of this race who had raced in the Marathon the last 4 years, will not be there. Showing how canny the morning line maker is, Ever Rider, an Argentinian with a very modest resume, has been made 7/2 fave under Gary Stevens (we wont get fooled by a South American import again, right guys?) I like Hollendorfer\'s Blueskiesnrainbows (6/1, Pedroza) a bit based on his Santa Anita experience, but he looks like a need to lead sort in a race which has others who want the front.

The two Juvie turf races pose the same two problems: (a) The Lasix off issue makes playing these races more gambling than horseplaying and (b) only one Euro runner in the 2 races (Chriselliam in the Juvie Filly Turf) has raced at a distance of a mile or longer. Giovanni Boldini, second favored in the Juvie Turf, has never won on grass. Bottom line, as good and as fast as Bobby\'s Kitten and Testa Rossi look, they both go sans Lasix, and less appealing looking Euro\'s
are hard to ignore, as always.

The Dirt Mile looks straightforward to me: Goldencents likes Santa Anita, seems to be versatile in terms of running style, and now has the services of an accomplished pilot. Golden was second twice at 6 furlongs to the deceased Points offthe Bench, who may have gone favored in the BC Sprint. The runner I will be watching is Brujo de Olleros, who was rumored to be the second coming of Invasor upon his arrival in America. In winning a GR 1 stake on January 6 at Maronas in Uruguay, BDO broke a track record at the mile distance which stood for 75 years.
The real reason to like BDO is his second in the Kelso to Graydar, who looked and ran outstanding that day at Belmont. Hymn Book will be closing as always. Verrazano faces the toughest field of his career and offers no value to this horseplayer.

The Distaff will be a test of the champion mare Royal Delta. Was the Beldame defeat an intentional bounce engineered by master trainer Mott? How will the cat and mouse game between Smith and Stevens (Beholder) play out? How good is Princess of Sylmar? The hope here is that these three are equally bet in the horizontals.

A great tray of appetizers on Friday, and best luck to Jimmy C. A feast on Saturday. Bon appetit.

[Footlick]

Not really a fair assessment of Sky Lantern as she did not have a good trip and was shuffle back at a crucial point due to traffic.  There are other Euro\'s that could be mentioned who did flop.  I just would not include Sky Lantern in that group due to her trip.  As far as Vorda is concerned, she has a ton of class, is a small, athletic filly, has speed to get better position and has a finishing kick. The two negatives will be her odds and whether you feel she can get an American mile, which on a fast Santa Anita course should be much easier than a European course, straight or not.  Just my opinion.