T Sheets

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

I just looked at the sheets for the race of the week for the first time in months and I see some new information I hadn\'t spotted before. You can never have too much information.

What really caught my eye though was the analysis of the race. I couldn\'t be in greater disagreement with not only the final position of the analyst but almost all of his reasoning points as they pertained to  a particular horse. I can see in his analysis all that he is considering is the \"Number\". Everything else has been relegated to non consideration.

\"Swirling Numbers\" You can\'t handicap like that. Good figures are important, but you can\'t bury your head to everything else.

After the race is over I\'ll post how he got caught up in the numbers.

CtC



Post Edited (01-31-04 17:21)

[Michael D.]

why not before the race? i give you my solemn promise that you will not move the odds against yourself by posting a pick here.

[TGAB]

Well, the ROTW is my product this week. I think we should have this discussion now. I don\'t know what horse you\'re referring to. I wrote the ROTW without benefit of the morning line and frankly I thought Boston Common would be 1st or 2nd choice. At 6-1, I like him a whole heck a lot of better than at 2-1 or 5-2. I\'ll be here for a little while longer and may check in tomorrow sometime.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Allan,

In my opinion your Boston Common Analysis is right on. Its about another horse and I may be all wet. I get that way sometimes...lol.

But I promise to take it like a man if I turn out to be wrong and if you were right I\'ll illustrate how you were. It\'s got to wait til post race.

Good Luck

CtC

[Michael D.]

1. SS: they add blinkers and the horse suddenly rates? nakatani is the same type rider as smith, so expect a run from slightly off the pace. final 1/16 in last race in less than :6.0  ..... very tough call, but 112 lbs makes him somewhat attractive. predicting a good late run and a finish in the money.

2. CS: 9f, turf, dubai, 1m graded stake ....
what else? put him at 6f and this guy runs pretty fast. one of the ones.

3. TG: clear lead in last two, can\'t see that here. nice horse, can\'t bet them all though. no.

4. ONR: the #\'s on the sheet i am looking at are too high.

5. BC: i guess he could get back to the \"neg 1\" lvl, which would make him competitive. notice five straight sprint wins on dirt when not starting from post 9.
should be close i guess.

6. MM: no idea

7. Gio: does not seem to run well against this type. no.

8. BluecostmeatonintheBC: i did not like this horse in the BC because i thought 6f was too short. the guy is 5 for 10 at 6f, with 5 other in the money finishes. not sure what i was thinking there..... mikey smith fits him well. tough customer.

i guess i make it a four horse race: 1,2,5, and 8. i think the 8 is the best horse in the race, but carrying 117 from the outside post, i will try and beat him. the 2 should run better than he did in the BC, and i expect him to run a touch faster than the \"0\" lvl. i will use him. the five is the toughest call for me. i have not seen the jan 1 race from SA, but it looks as though the 1 was getting to him at the finish. if the 1 saves ground till the top of the stretch, which nakatani may do in a field full of speed, SS just might have the kick to get up in time. at 112 lbs, SS is my pick. SS across the board, ex box SS,CS, and Blue.

[Michael D.]

CtC,
good luck tomorrow, can\'t hurt going with the hot connections (just a guess).

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

This is an intriguing race for a number of reasons. One of which is the \"hot connection\" angle. The respective \"hot\" trainers are:

Jeff Mullins     .33 - .38
Jeff Mullins     .33 - .38
Ted West         .31 - .33
Kristin Mulhall  .27 - .24

Those are all outstanding \"strike rates\". I remember reading that Mark Gill was dissatisfied with some of his California claims because his trainer was having difficulty moving horses \"up\" claimed from Jeff Mullins. Imagine that?

What manifests itself to me is that these aren\'t your typical California speedballs. Among them they\'ve got three graded stakes wins at \"sprint\" distance and none of those wins are at the distance being run today: Six Furlongs.

Boston Common:   1/1/04 5.5 marks Grade III
Captain Squire: 5/27/02 7 marks   Grade II
Bluesthestandard 3/29/03 6.5 marks Grade II

That said, Boston Common and BluestheStandard have impressive six furlong records and Captain Squire has the best R.O.E. at the distance. (Return on Effort)
 
Another interesting \"fact\" tending to indicate to me that these aren\'t typical West Coast speedballs is the distance racing some have done. Look at Bluesthestandard. He won the Texas mile and ran a bang up race there at a mile and sixteenth. Captain Squire was \"right in\" the West Virginia Derby. Note also Tough Games win at 9 marks when Baffert had him on the stamina trail.

So is the likely favorite a Graded Stakes six furlong horse? Note Blues twice lost to Captain Squire at six marks and that in the B.C. Sprint Captain ran like a banshee from the outside five wide. My recollection from B.C. day is that Cajun Beat ran incredibly and BluestheStandard picked up the pieces off a very hot pace.

So is there a dedicated Six Furlong speedball in the field? Does Mullins have the quickest horses? If you can answer those questions you may be able to win this race and I don\'t mean to imply I\'m supremely confident in how I\'ve answered them. But I am confident that a T-Graph point, give or take, isn\'t really gonna make the difference in this race.

CtC



Post Edited (02-01-04 16:21)

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

Well I took a bath...lol

Allan however you bet you did better than I did. Blues couldn\'t win this race for me to have a chance.

I\'ll address it later..i\'m licking severe wounds.

[Chuckles_the_Clown2]

My \"upset\" horses were Marino and Tough Game. I weighted Tough Game more favorably, despite the fractions I saw in their respective December 26th races. Tough Game ran on the same card when the Malibu was run. I really thought he cruised in that race and he did better Marino\'s time granted it was at Seven marks. Note Tough Game was not as fast at six.

I really liked his 1:07:2 at Hollywood too. Though I know the track was scorching. I thought he could run faster fractions than he did on Malibu day and he did. For whatever reason he just couldn\'t keep running Sunday. But I liked many things about him. All my years at the track tended to point him out as a high price horse with a big shot. The problem was that he wasn\'t a high price horse. He was the second choice and Marino was effectively 3rd choice. I still took a bath, but not nearly as bad as I would have if he was 9-1, which I really thought he would be.

Allan said Tough Game was a non contender and I rejected that opinion. He was right. He said a 0 to 1 might not be enough to win. I thought it certainly would be. They ran a 1:08. It might be negative. Other sprints on the day that I can remember were not that fast. Allan said Tough Game had reacted unfavorably to his three tops. I saw reasons to seriously discount that. But Sunday again he ran poorly off a top. Allan said the fastest horses were the winner and the fourth place horse. I didn\'t think the raw past figs would matter in this race. I projected tops for the horses I bet. Allan was right again here as well.

This isn\'t the first time that T-Graph has applied the bounce theory to beat me. It won\'t be the last. But its also the third time Tough Game has failed in Stakes company, though he did beat Bluesthestandard in one of those failures.

Good call on Tough Game Allan

CtC