At the risk of looking like a total fool-Sat Bel picks

[toppled]

I\'m going to Belmont for the 1st time this century tomorrow & I hope my studying pays off.  Here are my picks on NYRA\'s biggest day (although people in my neck of the woods would say the Travers day is)
1st: 3-2-9
2nd: 5-2-10
3rd: 9-13-4
4th: 4-1-5
5th: 7-3-9
6th: (Best Bet) 8-2-7
7th: 1 Entry
8th: Pass
9th: 9 if the track has dried out, otherwise pass
10th: Pass
11th: 6-5-2-13-7
12th: 15 if dry, 14 if wet
13th: 11-13-4-14

[catcapper]

My goodness.

Have been mulling the 6\'s chances for the last couple of days. Just now been watching his replays on NYRA\'s site. They have both head-on and pan shots of NYRA races. He has a better post and I think he will get a much better ride this time too. In the Peter Pan, he went wide until the fart turn, then went into the 2-3path, and then started moving on the rail. Blew past them all in the gallop out. Worthy longshot for the mix.

So far, my top 4 are the same as yours. I like Oxbow a little. The horse is gritty. And Mike Smith on Palace Malice. The horse has been working well it seems.

Anyway, for what MO may be worth, I agree with you. I think FC will be the only speed that lasts, if he lasts 1 1/2. and the others are good closers.

Good Luck to all! May we have safe racing.

[TreadHead]

Late pk4 play sure to go wrong:

R8 - So difficult to know what to do with the course condition if it is drying out all day, but the turf will almost assuredly be yielding, the only question will be how much standing water (if any) there is.  I\'m against Miz, and am using 7,2,4,1 in that order, the most speculative of those being the 4, who I think will run a top today, but still might not be good enough.  Who knows if we are looking for speed or a closer, but I think Miz compromises any speed and cant last on soggy turf

R9 - Expecting some explosive speed battles here on a drying out track that could be tiring, but again, so hard to know the rate at which the track is going to dry out.  I\'m just going to use the closers and hope I get lucky, with preference to FortyTales and CapoBostone given their number power, but also use Declans Warrior and Clearly Now

R10 - Posted at length about this already.  The rail is going to be dreadful and POE will either make a mistake by attempting to race on it, or give up ground advantage trying to maneuver off the rail, and I think he\'s running his 2 here, not his zero.  Tons of horses in play then, but I will spread big with 3,5,7,8,10

R11 - I really think that anyone who tells you they have a strong opinion about this race is kidding themselves, and will the track be dried out by then?  Will a dead rail emerge?  As if the horses weren\'t enough trouble to figure out, we have uncertain conditions.

While I wish I could hit the all button here, I\'ll go with 2,5,6,13,14 and will most likely key the filly unless something in the earlier dirt races suggests a bias that needs closer attention.  Good luck to all!

[Tavasco]

Since you made the effort to study and analyze the card. Then so convinced of your thinking, at that time, you had the conviction to own/share and publish your opinions. I acknowedge your exuberence. As fans we get excited and caught up in the game.

Your post triggers several reflections for me:

1. This board is a component part of the TG business. It\'s purpose (IMO) is to aid customers learning in the context of buying and benefiting from TG products. Note to myself - stay on purpose - buy more post less. The boards purpose needs to be re-iterated periodically so the generally naive newcomers learn the ropes.

2. The fanatics (like me) come out several times a year and post off purpose topics. This is one of those seasonal times. JB thanks for your patience and tutelage. um when you get the time and inclination please help me to understand the essence of the disparity between Oxbow & Last Gunfighters PIM #\'s. It must be a good example of a # making principal.

3. I watched a great night of Australian Racing Friday night. I liked the sprints being run without a curve. I\'d like see a US track try it. Maybe an NYRA innovation.

4. The race picks... well you have a lot of opinions, I have two and I foolishly posted one, if either is correct I\'m a winner. I am learning to focus my resources on a few high potential opportunities credit due to Peter Drucker and a couple of really sharp folks on this board like.....ah you know who you are.

Good Luck To All - may your jockey\'s not fall off.

[TreadHead]

I guess DayAtTheSpa is considering scratching, so must not like soft ground.  Not likely to run a new top then!  Too bad, I thought the sheet looked great and under normal conditions I would have expected a really good race here.  Glad I found out now instead of later, that\'s the information age for ya.