Let's clear a few things up.

[TGJB]

First of all, it turns out NYRA is not doing OOC testing, though they have been calling it that, which is why Miff thought they were. They have been doing their own testing over the last couple of years (meaning aside from the testing the state is doing), under a \"house rule\". But they have only been testing horses after they have been entered-- which as I have mentioned doesn\'t catch things like EPO the way it\'s administered now. It\'s being given at specific intervals for just that reason.

Second, I want to address the idea that horseplayers are simply paranoid about drug use in the game. Let\'s put aside the factual items I have mentioned here (repeatedly). What Sight doesn\'t get-- and most of you do-- is that the people on this site are, for the most part, not ordinary horseplayers.

Barry Irwin wrote an article in TDN a few months ago about the drug problem, and one of the things he said is that people like me are the ones who have the best idea of who is doing stuff because of the data we create and use. I gave him a quote, and as it happens it specifically addresses one of the points Sight keeps making-- that a horse jumping up immediately makes some people think drugs. What I said was, one horse doesn\'t mean anything-- but when the same trainer gets a group of suspicious move-ups close together, that\'s meaningful. A few days later I was contacted by someone from the KTOB, who as it turned out is a customer of ours. She said that John Ward had read the article and wanted to understand how it worked, how I could tell, to see if we could be a resource in stopping cheating. What I did was send along the accompanying file, Ramon Moya\'s Greatest Hits (at least to that point). As you will see, Stevie Wonder could see something is going on.

And that\'s the point. The people on this site are looking at the same things I am, and not much less often. They are not the people hanging out in the grandstand at Aqueduct in January, or at the old OTB\'s. They are people who bet enough to spend serious money on serious data, and most of them take multiple tracks on days they play. They are closely familiar with the trainers at the circuits they play, and their patterns. They don\'t jump to conclusions from a single outlier. They are looking at data that accurately measures performance, and they are not paranoid.

[fjmb]

Amen!!!

[miff]

So, the string started with present day innuendo re Allday, TAP, Chad Brown et al and ended with with a small time venue trainer where no big player that I know gambles a quarter much less serious money.No doubt what may be going on in those Mickey Mouse venues but that has zero to do with NY, Cali,Kentucky,Florida(questionable) where much of the $10+billion is bet and where scrutiny is much greater.

Interesting that people who earn their living for years overseeing testing/integrity at the main venues are not aware of what you know about EPO,amazing to me especially since the backside is loaded with rumors about who is doing what.

As to the TG data being used to ID cheats, for example,4 other credible figure makers have Dreaming Of Julia(fastest horse in history TG-7??) 5-10 lengths slower than TG( Rags like TG -2, Beyer like TG- 3.50)How would that work out say in a court of law?

Lastly, it takes a pair to \"school\" a practicing vet, who has her hands in the belly of the beast every day,as to what is happening in the game re drugs.

[TGJB]

1-- Seriously? It was an example.

2-- They do know. You don\'t, and the ones you talk to either don\'t aren\'t telling you. Maylin didn\'t answer you. He answered OTHER questions-- not about whether that needle had been found and what was in it, at least based on what you posted.

3-- The issue is not about one figure-- pretty sure I made that clear. I would LOVE to have this conversation in a court of law. It would show up the same OVER A PERIOD OF TIME on all credible figures.

[Themig]

Thanks for posting the sheets on this guy. Pretty amazing when it happens once but a bit sketchy when they are lined up.

[miff]

Maylin VERY tough to get on phone but will ask if he and his colleagues are aware of trainers beating EPO testing by the method you describe and why this loophole has not been addressed.EPO around a long time,surprising people getting away with it.

No comment re the fastest horse race in history?? Everyone else blew the DOJ fig and accordingly the ORB fig same day?

Beyer/Rags/TG and a couple other credible fig makers ALL in same area code re small venue move up trainers, like Moya, but not nearly as close at main venues.

[TGJB]

My guess is they didn\'t blow the figure, they chickened out. I said when I posted about it that the DOJ figure (and therefore the day) would be controversial. We\'ll see how all the horses in the routes that day hold up-- DOJ is the single worst one to tell by going forward, unless she pairs that figure, which is some kind of longshot.

Pretty sure Maylin won\'t tell you anybody is beating testing. You might tell him Rick Arthur says if EPO is given 4 and 14 days out it can\'t be caught without OOC testing, and see what he says.

Friedman and Beyer have written/posted often about move-up trainers you can see on figures. Guess they\'re talking about different trainers and we\'re all wrong.

[moosepalm]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> So, the string started with present day innuendo
> re Allday, TAP, Chad Brown et al and ended with
> with a small time venue trainer where no big
> player that I know gambles a quarter much less
> serious money.No doubt what may be going on in
> those Mickey Mouse venues but that has zero to do
> with NY, Cali,Kentucky,Florida(questionable) where
> much of the $10+billion is bet and where scrutiny
> is much greater.
>
> Interesting that people who earn their living for
> years overseeing testing/integrity at the main
> venues are not aware of what you know about
> EPO,amazing to me especially since the backside is
> loaded with rumors about who is doing what.
>
> As to the TG data being used to ID cheats, for
> example,4 other credible figure makers have
> Dreaming Of Julia(fastest horse in history TG-7??)
> 5-10 lengths slower than TG( Rags like TG -2,
> Beyer like TG- 3.50)How would that work out say in
> a court of law?
>
> Lastly, it takes a pair to \"school\" a practicing
> vet, who has her hands in the belly of the beast
> every day,as to what is happening in the game re
> drugs.

So, Miff, are you suggesting that jurisdictions, some of whom can\'t get out of their own way, who, by your own artful description, have been labeled as clueless clowns, should inspire confidence among bettors in the detection and enforcement of performance enhancement efforts among those who have more resources, expertise and incentive at their disposal?

As for the disparity of figures, let\'s take Julia out of the equation, and assume that more often than not, apart from California sprints, that the major figure makers are going to be in the ball park.  In so doing, if they all come up with reasonably similar numbers for a handful of trainers, in a consistent pattern of remarkable improvement, do we just attribute it to superior horsemanship?  If so, what is it that these folks know that Mott, Shug, Motion, et al., don\'t know?

These are not black and white questions, but quite a bit posted here suggests that it is an either/or situation.  Doesn\'t it seem likely that the truth lies somewhere within, that some of the move ups are \"artificially and illegally induced\" and others are \"artificially but legally induced.\"  The problem, however, as a few of us have pointed out, is that we have no way of knowing, and don\'t share your confidence in the ability of the overseers to oversee squat.  So, every suspicious move becomes fair game for doubt, and that taints the overall product in a very damaging way.

[miff]

Yes, Beyer, Rags strongly agree with you re move up trainers.

Think that Arthur,Scollay,Maylin may speak far more often now that drugs front and center in racing news all the time.Just look at what KY, NY, Cali regulators are doing for PR reasons on their big days.

[miff]

Moose,

Myself and fellow close gambling pals do not care if the Mickey Mouse venues close tomorrow, we don\'t bet a quarter there.

If you gamble on horses, you are going to get cheated from time to time even at the main venues.A regulator told me point blank that is no way to absolutely confirm that horses that test clean were not hit with something for which there is no test.Ten billion is bet and ONLY $30 million is reportedly spent on testing.Requests for increased monies for testing have been regularly denied.

If you play, that\'s another kinda variable you have to consider.Having said that I stand by perception is worse than reality re purely illegal stuff.

Mike

[TGJB]

One of the problems with running figures on the trainers at the major venues is that the big names (and almsot all Allday clients) usually have horses from the beginning of their careers, so you can\'t see jumpups as easily as with claiming trainers. You seldom get the situation we had in  spring 2001, where all Frankel\'s horses-- including older grass horses-- moved forward about 3 points in their next starts.

By the way, from what I\'m being told on the Derby horses we run about 5 points faster than Ragozin in general, not the usual 3.5 average.

[miff]

When all the TG/RAG/Beyers for the 20 entrants are available, a conversion chart will show any differences of opinion.From the few I have, did not see anything too far out of the norm.

Rags very tough conversion on occasion,wire horses come up way slow vs other credible data.

[sighthound]

No.  \"Sight\" gets that the people on this site are supposed to be more educated and rational than the common horse racing conspiracy theorists that inhabit the sport.

[moosepalm]

miff Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Moose,
>
> Myself and fellow close gambling pals do not care
> if the Mickey Mouse venues close tomorrow, we
> don\'t bet a quarter there.
>
> If you gamble on horses, you are going to get
> cheated from time to time even at the main
> venues.A regulator told me point blank that is no
> way to absolutely confirm that horses that test
> clean were not hit with something for which there
> is no test.Ten billion is bet and ONLY $30 million
> is reportedly spent on testing.Requests for
> increased monies for testing have been regularly
> denied.
>
> If you play, that\'s another kinda variable you
> have to consider.Having said that I stand by
> perception is worse than reality re purely illegal
> stuff.
>
> Mike

I have no problem with any of that, Miff.  I don\'t bet the bush tracks, either, but I hang at one, on occasion, and, yes, there are stories.

I suspect the reality is not so bad as the perception, but the perception can still be a killer in a game losing traction with the customer base.