Derby odds?

[Fairmount1]

As a new poster, I hope I\'m not the annoying new guy.  So with that said, it\'s too early to do this but it\'s never too early to think about the Derby.  I can\'t see Verrezano being much lower than Bode last year although Jimbo thinks differently.    

My attempt at a morning line guessing how the public would bet based on the top 20 in the Derby Rankings. Obviously, this is subject to enormous changes with Bluegrass, Arkansas Derby, and several that hopefully won\'t actually go that are listed below.  But the top contenders....who is value?  Who is way off?  And Jim C., is Falling Sky going in the Bluegrass did you say?  Tear it apart, have some fun with it.

No.   Name   Odds
1   Verrazano           4.00
2   Goldencents           5.60
3   Orb                   6.60
4   Revolutionary           9.00
5   Normandy Invasion   10.20
6   Itsmyluckyday           11.80
7   Governor Charlie   12.60
8   Vyjack                   13.20
9   Will Take Charge   18.20
10   Flashback           18.60
11   Oxbow                   19.00
12   Mylute                   28.40
13   Java\'s War           29.20
14   Uncaptured           32.20
15   Black Oynx           33.40
16   Lines of Battle           44.40
17   Super ninety-nine   46.60
18   Den\'s Legacy           51.60
19   Falling Sky           70.40
20   Merit Man           82.20

[Themig]

Verrazano 9/5
Orb 3/1
Flashback 4/1
Goldencents 5/1
Normandy 6/1
Governor 8/1

If I can get 18-1 or 46-1 on Baffert I will take a leap of faith. Just my opinion

[covelj70]

We are running in the Arkansas Derby.

He\'s training really well on the dirt so we didnt want to take a chance on the poly.

Hopefully, not knocking heads with Verazaano for the first 6 furlongs will make a big difference.

[TreadHead]

This page is only showing 8 probables for the race?  Is that really true?  Certainly don\'t blame you if that is the case, there will be a full field in the BG and there are a bunch of interesting possibilities there.

http://www.horseracingnation.com/race/2013_Arkansas_Derby

[covelj70]

There are a few others considering the spot as well so I am sure they will round up a few others and make it 10 or 11.  I know Carve is considering Arkansas as well as a few others.

[Fairmount1]

It will be really interesting whether conservative Nafzger puts Looking Cool in the Ark Derby or the Northern Spur.  If he puts him in the Ark Derby, I\'d have to say the horse must be absolutely thriving.

[covelj70]

Yeah, Looking Cool beat me last time with another one of mine that I like alot called River Rocks.

I think he\'s a really nice horse.

That said, when these conservative trainers enter 3 year olds in triple crown preps, it\'s sometimes the owners forcing their hand. Not saying that\'s the case here just always something to consider.

[Holybull]

I find it curious that TAP is considering Palace Malice for the Blue Grass and not the Ark Derby on dirt.   Just seems risky.  I don\'t recall TAP running many horses at Oaklawn, ever.

[covelj70]

Maybe out of respect for top client Repole?

Don\'t think Repole would like it too much if Palice Malice keeps him out of Derby.