Jimbo, I couldn't help myself

[covelj70]

I know I said I wasn\'t going to hit Orb in the last futures pool but I couldn\'t help myself

I have wathced several of these two turn races at GP fall apart coming down the stretch over the last few weeks (that one with the fillies yesterday was really special) and all I can envision is what I think is going to be a very very hot pace this weekend in the Fla Derby setting up Orb perfectly and then him going off as the 5-1 Derby fav and me not playing him on Derby day because I don\'t like playing favs in the derby only to watch him and JV win by open lengths.

so, I did us both a favor and hit him pretty good yesterday at 13-1 thus ensuring that he won\'t win this weekend and that we will get 15-1 on Derby Day.

You should thank me for taking one for the team

[jimbo66]

Funny Jim,

I actually looked long and hard at the 13-1 myself.  I couldn\'t pull the trigger though.  I decided to stick with my/our original theory that he doesn\'t win this weekend and goes off a decent price in the Derby, although he won\'t be 13-1 in the Derby no matter what he does Saturday IMO.  (he would have to run really bad to be that price in the Derby, and in that case, Shug probably wouldn\'t run him).  I guess the other way he could go off that long is if the Pletcher beast runs a huge figure in the Wood memorial and goes off under 2-1.

As disappointing as many of these recent Derby preps have been, I am really looking forward to the Floriday Derby.  The \"other\" horse I like and am therefore \"mushing\", besides ORb, is the Plesa horse that ran a big race last time out.  With those two, plus Shanghai Bobby and a few others in the race, it figures to be a telling race.

Good luck!

Jim

[ajkreider]

If Merit Man, Magical Hussar and Clearly Now are thinking of entering (which seems incredibly dumb to me), then the pace will be blazing fast.  It would set things up for Orb, but I\'m not sure how telling it will be.  Can\'t see the Derby being that fast.

[jimbo66]

Ajkreider,

Why can\'t you see the Derby pace being fast?  How many of the last 10-15 Derbies has slower than par paces?  I can think of War Emblem off the top of my head.  

It is usually almost a \"given\" that with 20 horses in the field and a long run into the first turn for horses to get position, that the pace will be fast.

What I think will be \"telling\" is how well the Plesa horse and/or Shanghai Bobby perform, when tracking off a fast pace instead of being right on it. (it seems with the sprinters in the field, they will both be rating).  And also if Orb can \"build\" on his previous race.  Two races in a row that horse has made the lead mid-stretch and seemingly lost focus.  (unless somebody wants to make the alternate case that he wasn\'t finishing strong and therefore putting the other horses away, which is certainly possible).

[ajkreider]

Oh it\'ll be fast, just not as fast as I\'d expect the FD to be.  It\'s not uncommon for the Kentucky Derby half to go in the .46 to .47 range.  But Magical Hussar went .45 and change for the FOY, and Merit Man went sub .45 earlier this year.  With those two, plus Clearly Now and Bobby all wanting the lead, no one is going to get a free pass on the front end.  

And anyway, I\'d also think that the new point system makes it unlikely that pure sprinters like Trinniberg get in at all. The half goes slower without him, and likely gets Bode the win.  Does Keyed Entry make the field with this system?  We can count on more fairly paced races from here on out, methinks.

[jimbo66]

You are splitting hairs AJ.

The derby pace will be fast.

So will the Florida Derby pace.

We will see on Saturday how some of the key horses react to the fast pace at 1 1/8.

46.2 at Churchill going 1 1/4 is often more taxing than 45.2 going 1 1/8 on a glib Gulfstream surface.