TGJB - SA Race 3 Pattern Question

[Box]

Just looking at the numbers I thought Gentlemen Pete could show a good forward move; was interested in your opinion... The Thoro-pattern did not have much of a sampling.

[TGAB]

This is an 0-2-X pattern where the 0, a top effort 3 back, is followed by the 2, another good effort but about 2 points worse than the 0 which is followed by the last effort, an X, an off race. Often this type of pattern is followed by move left, an improved effort off the X close to the top. Sufficient rest between races to enhance recovery, the younger the horse the more likely a good performance ensues, perhaps a new top.

In this case of Gentleman Pete the 0, the top effort, starting this pattern is actually the second time he ran it and the fact that 2 \"off\" races ensued is not a strong sign of good form. Indeed note the bandages added last time out which raises more questions as to form. Add on an outside post, the 8 hole (one horse inside scratched) and there are reasons to think a good enough effort might not be forthcoming.

That said, his top is competitive and the pattern despite some shortcomings is live at 8-1 ML. Let\'s say his chance of rerunning the top is 33% (high) and if he runs it then he has a 33% to win assuming a decent trip. That works outs to about 5-1, so he\'s an overlay. But both may be high projections.

Good luck.

[Tavasco]

Almost! Closed like a winner - Helped the tri