Look, how bad can it be?

[TGJB]

Ragozin has yet to post the BC numbers.

[TGJB]

So if I made a decision one year to not post the BC figures to save face how many people on this site do you think would rip me a new one?

Zero from the lambs elsewhere, the ones who remain.

[miff]

For the winners only, there were 4 races which Rags had quite different from Beyer:

All converted to TG figs:

1.Beyer had Flotilla with a converted TG equal to 8.5, Rags had it equal to a TG 5.5

2.Beyer had Beholder with a converted TG equal to 3, Rags had it equal to  a TG 5.5

3.Beyer had Royal Delta with a converted TG equal to neg -1.75, Rags had it equal to to a TG +2

4.Beyer had Shanghai Bobby with a converted TG equal to 7, Rags had it equal to a TG 11.25


TG figs not in archive to compare yet.In the case of Beholder, Royal Delta and Shanghai Bobby, the Rags figs come up on the slow side, as do many Rags figs, when a horse wires along the rail,losing little/no ground.It seems that adjusted raw time is not as heavily weighted in Rags figs as is ground loss or that ground loss is sometimes overweight in their methodology.

[TGJB]

We\'ve reposted the BC sheets with the figures they ran, in the ROTW.

Some of the differences with Beyer have to do with ground loss, especially in big fields like for most BC races. Also, the TG/Rag conversion will be different on dirt than grass (and maybe synthetic). I suspect that has something to do with Ragozin using pars for so long, but I\'m not sure.

Ruffian Fan of the Rag board-- first of all, you had to use Ruffian?

My point was not that they were holding back the BC figures because they got them wrong for that day, it was about how they would look in the context of previous figures. Since they only post the figures and not the full sheets (which Friedman does after the fact when a result makes him look good) it\'s not as easy to track, but you can look at ours and theirs if you still have them, and decide what makes more sense.

But yes, they did also get some BC figures wrong. Some of it has to do with ground loss, some probably with one/two turn relationships and/or their insistence on using a one-size-fits-all variant, by which I mean an average variant for the day. And since you make figures using previous figures of the horses, there is obviously that problem as well. I didn\'t spend the time figuring out what was due to what.

[miff]

\"Some of the differences with Beyer have to do with ground loss, especially in big fields like for most BC races\"

JB,

Only did BC winners and there was an adjustment for ground loss, Beyer to RAGS.The difference is more likely to be found in the variant.

Noted in one of your post that you had the track speeding up on Sat?Did not see any evidence in the raw times produced at the various distances to support that.The Classic at 2:00+(last dirt race) does not come up that fast relative to the speed of that surface for two turn races that day(tossing Shanghai Bobby race from the 2 turn equation after very fast early pace and late melt down causing slow final time)


P.S. All three(tg/beyer/rags)figs much closer coming out than going in, very few disagreements.

[TGJB]

The change in track speed Saturday was slight. And I meant Beyer to TG. I\'m not that concerned with how those two come up relative to each other.

As far as Ragozin goes, as I pointed out here several times years ago, they have major sprint/route issues in Southern California. It\'s obvious just looking at their BC figures relative to what the horses had coming in-- they gave a much higher percentage of new, paired, and near tops in the sprints than in routes (talking dirt, didn\'t look at grass). They basically have every dirt route collapsing. If someone had their BC sheets and wanted to take the time they would come up with some real interesting comparative tables using our standard TG pattern categories.