Aqu - Red Smith H

[Michael D.]

i\'m guessing the turf will have a bit of give in it today......

Final Prophecy: looks a bit slow, and has never been the distance. pass

Quiet Ruler: no thanks

Haggs Castle: i can\'t count this guy out completely. victor seems to ride these races well, especially from an inside post. on his best day he can run in the \"5-6\" range, and he gets 8 lbs from the fav. might use him underneath.

Revved Up: one of the faster ones. i think he will have a say in the outcome, but with a decent pace expected, and a possible soggy course, i will try to beat him for the win spot.

Macaw: talk about knocking on the door! shows excellent runs at the distance, and should get a nice pace to close into. can run in the \"4\" range on his best day, and gets a couple of lbs here. i will use this horse in the exotics.

Royal Regalia: at 112 lbs, this horse is fast enough to win. i am not sure, however, that this horse can win without an easy lead running over a soft turf course. will have a say for a while, but pass.

Balto Star: i think this horse is capable of running in the \"4\" range, even on a soft course. will probably get a two or three wide stalking trip, and should be there when it counts. i will try and beat him for the win spot though, as i expect one of the closers to run a \"3\" or faster.

Deputy Strike: excuses in just about every race this year. closed well last, but was checked in the stretch, ran seven wide and only lost by two in the gd II at Kee, and was stuck behind pedestrian paces in his other races. on his best day he can run in the \"4\" range, and gets a nice pace to close into here, and 7 lbs. all things considered, he looks like one of the ones to me.

He Flies: not on soft turf he doesn\'t. pass.

Dawn of the Condor: i am a bit reluctant to toss this guy completely, but seems the six year old might have lost a step or two. at 112 lbs, i would have used him on last years form, but i can\'t use him now.

Cetewayo: one of my all time favorites. he likes the distance, likes Aqu, and get some pace to close into. with dickinson in his corner, i must use him.

Tripat: impossible tasks in his last two. choked by Jose in his last, then tried to close into a 11:2 last eighth. before that he faced the best at Arl, and ran OK. at 113 lbs, he might be close here. still, i will side with others.

the bet: at 10-1, and carrying 113 lbs, i guess i have to go with Deputy Strike on top.
i will also use Cetewayo, Balto, and Macaw. i will include Haggs and Revved underneath in the tri on a few small tickets.