Pleasantly Perfect & new TG tnr stats

Started by dodie, November 04, 2003, 08:36:02 PM

Previous topic - Next topic

dodie

TGJB
Don\'t know if I just missed it or not, but haven\'t seen any discussion of the new tnr stats included with the BC sheets.  The only reason I used Pleasantly Perfect (well not the \"only\" reason) was Mandella\'s 2nd off LO stats.  Overall, 56% of his horses pair or top.  It\'s 67% for his 2nd LO horses.  While 11% may not seem like much, it\'s pretty significant compared to other trainer\'s stats.  
  Has TG received any other feedback?

PLEASANTLY PERFECT Mandella, Richard E.
Category Starts Top% Pair% Off% X%
Overall...................................... 1515 21.3 34.5 25.3 18.9
2nd race off lay-off....................... 70 40.0 27.1 25.7 7.1


dodie

Just read JB\'s \"end of discussion\" post.  As Rosanne Rosannadanna said, \"Never Mind.\"


Mall

The legendary linguist was quoted in an interview Sun. as  saying that \"any person who is intellectually alive changes his ideas\", adding that if anyone is teaching the same thing as 5yrs ago then \"either the field is dead, or they haven\'t been thinking.\" That\'s the overall approach my comrades take, which has made for an interesting & informative couple of yrs.

1. After the BC races at Arl last yr, West Coast jocks said that despite the track\'s designation the turf course was yielding, not firm. The same thing happened again this yr, although this time it was a trainer who blew the whistle. If MagnaScan readings referenced by P. Eckhart had been available, then one would have had an objective measure of the actual condition of the course before the races were run, & could compare the horses previous races to the condition of the turf. The MIT Engr who helped build Tapeta invented a device which would do the same thing for dirt races. I very much doubt that either type of rating will be available in the US during my lifetime.

2. One of the things that struck me about the new trainer stats was the lack of any seeming relationship between the amount of time since a horse\'s last start & the percentage of new tops or pairs. This seems to me to be hard evidence that what might have been true 20 yrs ago is not necessarily true today.

3. This might not be the best example, but the new stats might be useful when you\'re confronted by a trainer you\'re not familiar with, such as in my case Dean Greenman in the last race on BC day. His overall win percentage was the lowest in the race, but he seems to get new tops & pairs at a reasonably high rate. In the right situation & at the right price, I might conclude that his overall win percentage was due to the quality of runners in his barn, & that he is able to deliver the goods when he has a horse which can run. Unfortunately for Dean, & me, he too ran into the Mandella buzzsaw.