Woodford Reserve Manhattan H.

[cruzm73]

I really like Brilliant Speed in this race.  He was cranked and ready at CD in a race that looked to set up perfect for him when they let Little Mike crawl around the track.  I see ML isn\'t out yet, any thoughts on what you think fair odds on him would be for him to be playable?

[FrankD.]

3/1 in DRF PP\'s, probably 2/1 or less at post time as a possible single in the horizontals.

[flushedstraight]

Amatuer race thoughts.

Omayad - Oh my, Drysdale is hot right now and shipping his unknown quantity cross country for this. Hmmmm. Youngish July bred 4yr old has license to move forward off what looks like a useful mile prep in HOL ALW. It would be nice if TG had Chile figs, but who am I to complain. Major X factor, possible overlay at big price (15-1?)

Boisterous - Disapointing 2011 Sword Dancer fave returns to top company for Shug seeking Manhattan hat trick. Appears to prefer the softer turf with his 3 paired tops all on off turf and relatively weak firm turf numbers, hence will consider only if off and major underlay at ML if firm.  

Al Khali - TGland enigma looks poised to crack the super and maybe the tri for BC classic winning trainer/jock combo at fair price. Consistently runs solid figs on firm turf, and consistently finds trouble. Maybe new HOF jock will help, but I expect the big win happens when I\'m out on the lake fishing, not on Belmont day.

Desert Blanc - Angles angles angles. Ramon for Edgar, gets in light, trainer great 2nd off layoff, his top fig last year at this distance. Just an expected small step forward off solid return race puts him into the thick of this as 4th choice. Tempting key.

Papaw Bodie - Shrewd claim looks overmatched in this spot

Brilliant Speed - Simply pairing his top likely wins this with decent trip. Looks primed for trainer excellent 3rd off layoff. Not much not to like except short price. Proven, and seems to manage slow paced races whether on or off the pace (unless he\'s @#$% 6 wide the whole way around). With development according to Dynaformer norm, he should be powerhouse in this division. Scary.

Hudson Steele - ML fave stretches out here and probably needs to pull a Forbidden Apple to win this, which does seem possible based on race shapes. Underlay.

Top Surprise - This Mission is not Approved


Summary: value looks to be in tossing Boisterous (assuming firm) and using Hudson Steele sparingly, and keying Desert Blanc and Brilliant Speed heavily in exotics, less so Omayad, and using those 3 in the multi race wagers.

Good luck to all

[flushedstraight]

Omayad took lots of cash in the doubles.

[Boscar Obarra]

Omayad, just watched his last. if he\'s in front somewhere, they might not catch him.

neither nyra tout has this horse 1/2/3/4, another plus

[Boscar Obarra]

Have to update my Chilian figs after that

[Topcat]

flushedstraight Wrote:
-------------------------------------------------------
> Omayad took lots of cash in the doubles.


He was a horrible price . . . playing him was like fumbling your handicap negotiations on the first tee and winding up with no chance . . . and he wasn\'t the only one on the card.   Royal Courier and Bourbon Courage were sent off at viciously-depressed odds -- you\'re beaten, before you start.