Do derby numbers really matter?

[dannyboy135]

Much discussion has been had about Bode and whether he bounced as predicted in the derby.  Irrespective of what the numbers say, he didn\'t react negatively in the derby.  His performance was brilliant!  I played him to react and didn\'t have him in my business.  I was wrong. He may bounce in the Preakness because his pair or new top came on three weeks rest and is called upon to race again on two weeks rest.  As Miff says that Kool aid is Powerful stuff.

The derby is so unique in that no other race has twenty horses scrambling for position and being bounced around like pinball\'s. With the derby chaos almost no horse can run a top figure, mostly because horses are taken up, bounced around and in general compromised multiple times during the race.  Their poor figures are more often the product of race dynamics and not reaction to prior efforts.
That is why I put little value in derby figures.  thoughts appreciated.

[mjellish]

I think the figures matter, but within the context of which they were earned.

[FrankD.]

Danny,

One of if not the toughest race all year to handicap for many of the reasons you listed above. You may want to factor in trainer preparation and the new idea of less is better for Derby preps due to the weakened breed;(IMHO) In addition to where they prepped, medication, testing and surface.

As an everyday year round player for the past 35 years I feel compelled to have an opinion as well as back it up disproportionately for the chaos of the race. I posted a couple of times about being completely clueless as what to do with Bode and if he was trained by any one other than Baffert he\'s an auto toss. However as an almost exclusively horizontal player I can never leave the fastest horse in the race totally out of that bet and get beat by him. So my dilemma was what proportion of my tickets would Bode be on and what %  of those would be as a single.

One of the great things about this board san the nonsense, conspiracy theories & red boarders is the valuable knowledge I\'ve picked up from some of the sharpest players in the game. After a couple of private chats, one pertaining to Oaklawn figures which have always been a puzzle to me, the other with someone who really knows how to structure a multi race ticket and the Churchill speedway on Derby day I ended up singling Bode on about 50 % of my tickets. Guess what I would not have connected anyway so I made a flat bet too!

 Ouchie, double ouchie and spilled Kool Aide abound from Wednesday - Saturday on my favorite betting week of the year.

So where does that leave us? I don\'t think they can touch Her Smile in the Belmont 8th today so now I just have to find the other 3 legs of the pick 4.

Good luck,

Frank D.

[Beginner]

Perfect example of context: Had I focused on your comment about tossing IHA\'s Hopeful, maybe I would have been more likely to pick him over either UR or GEM as my keys.  I tossed him out of the win spot based on TG theory of (i) slow 2 yr old top, (ii) 6.75 pts of development (iii) avg 3.5 pts of development from 2 to 3 out of Flower Alley and (iv) what I interpreted as an 0-2-X (your pre-Derby comments and Covelj\'s, notwithstanding).  Throw in the ESWT, the 19 hole, Super Testing, Jock with no CD/Derby experience and I didn\'t think I had a choice but to downgrade him.  

Context and Spacing (in the 02X) - filed away for next year\'s Derby... What does the superscript \"s\" next to the \"Sloppy\" notation means?  I couldn\'t find it on the TG key.  Maybe it means you should ignore this race.

[Perfect Drift]

i think the \"s\" next to sloppy means a sealed track, just like in the DRF or BRIS pps.